After the tease of Week 0, the 2025 College Football season officially kicks off this week, with Week 1’s arrival. You can see every matchup and our preferred picks in our Week 1 College Football predictions, but my guess is you’re here for a little extra value.

There’s nothing like a good college football upset, and the only thing that beats it is a winning bet backing that elusive underdog. CFB upsets aren’t as easy to pin down as they are in other sports, but when you nail one, they tend to deliver.

I don’t want to aim too high out of the gates, but there are absolutely a few Week 1 College Footbal underdog picks that stand out. We are miles away from the College Football Championship, but even the best of contenders can get tripped up in the first week of the season, and it’s fair to say nobody knows anything for certain about most of these teams.

What better time than now to tap into some elite betting value and swing for the fences? If you’re looking for some solid Week 1 College Football upsets, you’ve come to the right place. Check out my predictions below, and compare them to what the top handicappers are choosing.

College Football Week 1 Underdogs 

Team	Spread	Moneyline
Miami Ohio RedHawks	+17.5 (-110)	+600
Baylor Bears	+2.5 (-105)	+120
Texas Longhorns	+2.5 (-110)	+105
Stony Brook Seawolves	+18.5 (-110)	+625

I am starting the 2025 College Football season off in style, giving you two upset picks that are on the safer side, and two more with maximum upside. Upside like this comes with an immense amount of risk, while college football underdogs are inherently volatile.

That said, I am digging the odds for Baylor and Texas, two very talented teams with major offensive ability. They will be very minor underdogs as they admittedly face superior opponents, but I think they have what it takes to keep their respective games close and an upset is in play.

Miami Ohio and Stony Brook are undeniably some leaps of faith, but there is a method to my madness. For one, you don’t have to bet on their moneylines. You can simply bet on them to beat their lofty spreads. But there is enough there to convince me to take a shot on them as fun upset plays, too.

I’ll go over each matchup a little closer to let you know why these week 1 college football underdog picks look so appealing.

College Football Underdog Picks

Check out our best College Football underdogs this week:

Miami Ohio RedHawks (+600) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-950)

The Miami Ohio RedHawks are a more appealing week 1 college football underdog than expected, and it has everything to do with the Wisconsin Badgers not being as imposing as they once were.

Wisconsin was a shell of their former selves in 2024 (15th in the Big 10), and they haven’t been a 10-win team since 2019. They were quite middling in Luke Fickell’s debut in 2023, and they only got worse last year, struggling to formulate anything that resembles a potent offense (101st in scoring).

The Badgers were not a threat on offense, with their formerly trademark ground attack ranking just 73rd and their defense lacking a killer instinct (115th in sack rate). They made a change under center and will hope to improve, but even at home to start the season, they feel vulnerable.

On the other side, Miami Ohio poses a stiff challenge for a team already drowning in offensive struggles, as the RedHawks owned the nation’s 12th best scoring defense a year ago. They had a respectable pass rush and were decent against the run, but they were remarkably stingy (30th) against the pass.

The RedHawks aren’t anything special on offense, but that blistering defense could be Wisconsin’s kryptonite, while Miami Ohio just might be dynamic enough to exploit a Badgers defense that is far from elite.

Auburn Tigers (-140) vs. Baylor Bears (+120)

Next up we have the Baylor Bears hosting the Auburn Tigers. The line is pretty tight, but getting Baylor at home as a +120 underdog feels like a smash pick. This is really nice value, seeing as Baylor (33.5 points per game) is coming off a year where they ranked 18th in scoring and were as dynamic and as explosive as anyone.

The Bears could kill you from anywhere on the field, as they ranked 29th in yards per pass (8.1), but were still dominant on the ground (32nd in rushing). This helped them compete in the loaded Big 12, finishing within striking distance of first place.

Baylor did take a hit recently with Dawson Pendergress being lost for the year, but that just means the spotlight will be bigger for Bryson Washington, who rattled off 1,028 rushing yards and 12 scores on just 175 carries in 2024.

Washington is just one piece of the puzzle for this potential week 1 CFB upset, of course, as Sawyer Robertson is back for more action for the Bears, coming off a stellar 2024 campaign. He is a Heisman Trophy hopeful in the eyes of many, and if Baylor can get off to a hot start, he and the rest of the Bears could be in for an epic campaign.

Auburn is no slouch, of course. The Tigers were definitely not formidable last year during a 5-7 run, but this is a proud program that was still pretty pesky defensively a year ago. The country’s 28th best run defense could have something to say about the damage Washington can do, but I ultimately think the game just ends up being in Robertson’s hands.

At home and with Baylor possibly looking down a long path to title contention, I think he shines in a nice upset win.

Texas Longhorns (+105) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-125)

This is my favorite week 1 college football underdog pick in terms of price and reliability. It feels weird to say that when one of the teams in this matchup is at home and happens to be the defending champ, but here we are.

Don’t get me wrong, the Ohio State Buckeyes are still a well-coached team with loads of talent ready to compete for another championship – but they’ve proven nothing. The likes of Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins, and Emeka Egbuka are all gone. Ohio State has the system and quality talent to replace those mainstays, but they need to show us we can trust them.

The Texas Longhorns lost a lot of firepower, too. Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond, and Jaydon Blue all left this off-season, with the only legit reason to believe in this team being the ascension of new starting quarterback, Arch Manning. However, if they’re going to keep pace in the SEC, this might be a game they have to have.

Maybe I am just falling victim to the hype machine, but the reality is we have a very tight line, a defending champ without the bodies that actually won that title, and a would-be generational passer ready to take college football over.

If Manning is truly the savior Texas thinks he is, I think there’s a good chance he slays right away and allows the presently #1 ranked Longhorns to prove that they are the team to beat in NCAAF.

Stony Brook Seawolves (+625) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-1000)

May the college football upset gods look down on me with a smile. I know this one is a little out there, but I’ll start off by saying if your stomach is weak, just consider targeting the point spread.

That said, the Stony Brook Seawolves are one of the more interesting college football teams going into week one. They’re on the road and facing tougher competition than they’re accustomed to, but everyone knows the San Diego State Aztecs are known for basketball – not for football.

Need more evidence? San Diego went just 3-9 last year in head coach Sean Lewis’s first season on the job, and that was not really a separation from the norm. The Aztecs were also just 4-8 the year prior, and they’ve had just one truly good season over the last five years.

The days of winning under Rocky Long seem to be far in the rearview mirror, and if we look at what they did last year (119th in scoring, 99th in defense), there’s just nothing to feel good about here.

San Diego State has some solid history, they’re big favorites, and they’re at home. They should be better in year two under Lewis than they were, but does that jump come to fruition right away against an improving Seawolves program?

I’m not totally sold. I know Stony Brook is a weaker program by default, but this team saw a marked jump once Billy Cosh took over. They went from completely irrelevant to going 9-5 with a vibrant offense (29.6 points per game), while they also have continuity on their side with several key starters back in the saddle.

The price will drive most people away. However, Stony Brook’s offense and San Diego State’s shortcomings make this a viable spot to hammer the underdog.

College Football Underdog Parlay

I definitely suggest targeting all College Football picks in isolation. Parlays are a money sucker and while a lot of fun, they don’t hit very often. On top of that, they’re awfully deflating, as you can get six picks right, but if the sevenths fails, it’s game over.

Shopping around for the best NCAAF odds is also suggested. If you’re taking on crazy risk with picks that otherwise aren’t great bets to hit, you should make sure you’re getting the best price possible.

The ceiling is obscene, of course, as my four college football upset picks for week one could return an insane $22,788 for every $100 you wager. The exact pricing could be different depending on which sports betting sites you call home, but the point still stands; that’s a lot of money.

If you’re going to roll out a week 1 College Football parlay with my underdog picks, I’d mix it up and add some point spread bets with the Bears and Longhorns as moneyline wagers. That mixture feels a lot safer and you still would get back $1,581 for every $100 you risked if the parlay were to hit.

Since you’re clearly in the mood to stack picks, consider stretching your CFB knowledge with our best College Football parlays of the week.