The road to the College Football Championship has officially been paved. The College Football Playoff is through the first round and as the next couple of weeks come along, we will inch closer to what should be an intense title game.
Until then, of course, I’ll be handing out some college football underdog picks. The pickings are as slim as they’ve been all year, but there are still CFP games and several bowl games to peruse. I am limiting my college football upsets to just four picks, with the caveat that they are riskier than usual simply since we have fewer games to work with.
That said, I think there’s logic to all of my college football underdog picks this week. Let’s check out their odds and why they might be great upset specials.
College Football Bowl Game Underdogs
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan Chippewas | +10.5 (-108) | +310 |
| East Carolina Pirates | +10 (-108) | +295 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | +3 (-102) | +142 |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | +4.5 (-110) | +160 |
The last time I handed out some college football underdog picks we missed the mark. I really liked Jacksonville State to win, but they lost to Kennesaw State by four points in a tight 19-15 defensive battle.
I also liked the BYU Cougars to beat a 13-point spread, but they proceeded to get smoked by Texas Tech yet again. It was looking like a bad time for NCAAF upset picks, but I did nail Duke as a fun underdog and I also was all over the Indiana Hoosiers.
The 2-2 record wouldn’t be cause for celebration most weeks, but that was some serious profit if you bet the moneyline on all four of my CFB upset picks. I have a fresh new batch for this week’s games, so you can roll with my underdogs above, or read on for further analysis.
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College Football Underdog Picks
Check out our best College Football underdogs this week:
Central Michigan Chippewas (+310) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-395)
Central Michigan is interesting against the spread this week. If you’re feeling saucy you can go for it all with their +310 moneyline, but my preference is to simply bet on them to keep it close when they face the Northwestern Wildcats.
The Chippewas will battle Northwestern in the GameAbove Sports Bowl, but they’ll be sizable underdogs to keep it competitive. I don’t hate their chances to at least beat the spread, however, seeing as Central Michigan went a respectable 7-5 during the regular season and was one of the better teams inside the MAC.
Central Michigan got outplayed by Toledo in their last game, but was 4-1 over their previous five games. In addition, the Chippewas have a rock solid offense that puts up 29 points per game (42nd), a top-50 rushing offense, and the nation’s 4th best scoring defense.
This is all bad news for Northwestern, who were just 6-6 on the year and struggled to keep their head above water (4-5) inside the stacked Big 10. More specifically, the Wildcats are in poor form, as they’re just 1-4 over their last five games.
Northwestern deserves credit for battling good Michigan and Illinois teams, but this is not a team with a scary offense or a lights out defense. Their 57th ranked run defense could have issues stopping Central Michigan, too.
The beauty here is I’m not calling for the full-blown upset. Northwestern is probably the better team and they certainly hail from the stronger conference, but they are weak against the spread (3-2) when favored and Central Michigan has the rushing+defensive combo to give the Wildcats some hell.
Pittsburgh Panthers (-375) vs. East Carolina Pirates (+295)
Next up are the East Carolina Pirates, who are big underdogs when they face off with the Pittsburgh Panthers. Conference competition explains the pricing here, as Pitt is really not a team to be feared.
The Panthers did go 8-4 overall and 6-2 inside the ACC, but they got destroyed by upper tier schools like Miami and Notre Dame. They had some solid wins over the likes of Georgia Tech, but they were pretty inconsistent as a whole.
East Carolina didn’t face the same level of competition, but they were also 8-4 and were a solid 6-2 in the underrated AAC. Their strong record included a 31-27 win over a very good Memphis team, while East Carolina blew out Army and gave Tulane a legit fight in a 26-19 defeat.
None of this guarantees that the Pirates can beat the Panthers, but I do think it showcases their competitiveness and ability to at least hang tight against top competition. Additionally, East Carolina has a very explosive offense, putting up over 31 points per game (23rd) thanks to a balanced attack that ranks 31st on the ground and 20th through the air.
This is going to be a tough offense for the Panthers to stop, as they give up over 26 points per contest (71st). To make matters worse, Pittsburgh ranks 108th against the pass, giving Katin Houser and this Pirates squad a clear path to success in this matchup.
Penn State Nittany Lions (+142) vs. Clemson Tigers (-170)
My first two college football underdogs are best targeted with the point spread in mind, but I am game for straight up ML bets when it comes to the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Penn State has dealt with some key injuries on the year, but they overcame a lot to at least get to .500, finishing 6-6 and doing all they could to win three games in the loaded Big 10. It wasn’t always pretty, but the Nittany Lions started hot (3-0) and then bounced back after a brutal six-game skid to win their last three games.
That run included dominant wins over Michigan State and Nebraska, while a 40-36 shootout victory against Rutgers showed us they can also win in a tense shootout. Even during that ugly skid, this team was largely competitive, dropping five of those six games by just one score.
Needless to say, Penn State is a lot better than their record suggests, and they have serious offensive potential with 29.9 points scored per game (34th). The Nittany Lions can run the football as well as anyone, which should give them a shot against a stingy Clemson run defense.
Clemson definitely is well-coached with plenty of talent, but the big sales pitch here is that they are extremely inconsistent. They went just 7-5 on the year and aren’t as gifted on the ground as someone like Penn State.
The Nittany Lions will need to work hard to get their ground game going, but their own strong defense and their big play passing game should give them a real chance to get the job done here as +142 underdogs.
George Tech Yellow Jackets (+160) vs. BYU Cougars (-192)
Lastly, let’s get a good Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets team at a fun +160 moneyline. Georgia Tech had another good season, going 9-3 with a solid 6-2 mark inside the ACC. The Yellow Jackets had some tough losses, fighting the Georgia Bulldogs to a seven-point defeat, and also losing to NC State by eight.
At one point, though, Georgia Tech started off at 8-0, but for a tiny stretch their defense really hung them out to dry. They should have a solid chance to upset the BYU Cougars, who admittedly have been perfect outside of an 0-2 run against the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The big reason why is the defense we saw out of them in their last game against Georgia. If the Yellow Jackets can stifle a team like Georgia, they have a shot to hang with just about anyone. The other thing is that BYU got exposed in two blowout losses to Texas Tech and Georgia Tech (29th in scoring) is a very good offensive team that is extremely difficult to stop on the ground.
BYU’s run defense doesn’t really measure up to the Yellow Jackets, while Georgia Tech is also explosive down the field through the air. The Cougars aren’t bad defensively – and they’re quite good on offense – but this game sets up as one the Yellow Jackets can control on the ground.
College Football Underdog Parlay
- Central Michigan Chippewas ATS +10.5 (-108)
- East Carolina Pirates ATS +10 (-108)
- Penn State Nittany Lions ML (+142)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML (+160)
That does it for my top college football underdog picks. Like always, make sure you find the best college football odds available by hunting high and low at the top sports betting sites, and make sure you target these bets individually.
I know that stringing together big parlays is fun, but I do suggest targeting solo bets. That said, you can certainly make a strong case for a high upside parlay, as $100 on the exact slip above would bring back $2,333 at most online sportsbooks.
Move the spread bets to ML wagers and it really gets out of control. My suggestion, though, is to target safer parlays, or string together some bets in the pro game.
Want even more picks for the week? Check out our top College Football parlay of the week. And, for the NFL fans out there, we also have the best NFL parlays for the pro side of the conversation.
Best College Football Underdog Picks For Bowl Games
The best college football underdogs can still fail pretty easily. This week I like two bets against the spread and the point spread is at +10 for both. That can still go wrong, but at least with those bets we have a good amount of wiggle room to work with.
The two moneyline upset picks are a bit more compelling, as both Penn State and Georgia Tech are two good-to-great teams that have seemingly been overlooked for much of the year. If I had to single out one pick of the lot, though, it’d easily be the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech is quite arguably the better team compared to BYU, and they will be hell bent on getting to their 10th win of the year. Thanks to their high-flying offense, I think they can make it happen.
You can roll with my college football underdog picks, or check out what the top handicappers above have to offer this week. Whatever you decide to do, I hope my NCAAF upset picks treat you well. Good luck!









