The Buffalo Bills finished atop the AFC East standings in 2020 with a 13-3 record, beating out the 10-6 Miami Dolphins. The Patriots took a huge fall in their first season without Tom Brady, while the New York Jets finished 2-14.
The division-champion Bills made it to the AFC Championship, where they fell to the Kansas City Chiefs 38-24.
Odds to Win AFC East in 2021
Buffalo Bills Team Preview 2021
The Bills are overwhelming favorites to take home the division crown at -150 odds. Quarterback Josh Allen was second in the NFL’s Most Valuable Player voting and is on the verge of superstardom.
Not only was Buffalo the best team in the division, but they were also a perfect 6-0 in rivalry games. They have the league’s most productive receiver in Stefon Diggs and a stingy defense, making them tough to beat.
The next step for the Bills will be to find sustained success in the absence of Tom Brady.
Buffalo is young, talented, well-coached, and could form a monopoly atop the division.
Miami Dolphins Team Preview 2021
The Dolphins are narrowly the second-most likely to win the division, according to the oddsmakers. At +300, there is serious value for a Miami team that just jumped from 5-11 to 10-6.
Miami was the story of the league last year, thanks to the coaching and leadership of Brian Flores. Once the NFL equivalent of a pushover, the Dolphins allowed the fourth-fewest points last season.
Question marks remain over the long-term ability of Tua Tagovailoa, who will be without the safety net of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tua threw for 11 touchdowns and five interceptions and finished with a 26th-best quarterback rating of 52.5.
The Dolphins lost Kyle Van Noy and Ereck Flowers but brought in Jaylen Waddle and Jason McCourty, among others. Miami’s defense is very solid, and Waddle will help open up the playbook for their sophomore quarterback.
New England Patriots Team Preview 2021
The Patriots suffered their first losing season since 2000 last season, largely due to an underperforming Cam Newton. The former MVP QB has had an offseason to recover but is under pressure from first-round draft pick Mac Jones. If Newton struggles early, look for Bill Belichick to make the switch to the Alabama rookie.
New England atypically spent lots of money in free agency, bringing in receiving help and reinforcing their defensive front seven. The Pats may not be the favorites, but at +325, taking them could provide a real bang for your buck.
Quarterback play will be key for New England: Belichick can scheme as well as anyone, but the offense must score.
New York Jets Team Preview 2021
The Jets are a far, far way off the favorites, given +1500 odds to win the AFC East. Rookie quarterback and second-overall draft pick Zach Wilson will be tasked with rebuilding a franchise that has crumbled recently.
A positive for Jets fans is that it really cannot get much worse than 2-14. They have a star lineman in Mekhi Becton, and their skill position players are explosive toting the rock.
Robert Saleh is getting his first opportunity at Head Coach, recently serving as defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers. Saleh was the architect of San Fran’s defense and will look to create a similar system in New York. If he can get anywhere near the Super Bowl, as he did on the West Coast, he will have succeeded.
2021 AFC East Predictions
Perhaps more than any other division in football, the Bills are the clear choice here. They have the most talent, have performed better than their rivals, and have the best quarterback in the division.
While the Dolphins are listed as the second favorite to win the division, I would avoid them. They have a low ceiling because of Tagovailoa and do not have a reliable running back to count on.
The underdog with the best chance of winning the division is the Patriots, given Newton’s talent and Belichick’s championship experience. At +325, it is hard not to consider the Pats as a decent hedge if not a valuable investment.
The Jets have no hope and are at least a few years away from reaching .500.
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