It would appear to be a foregone conclusion that Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets is going to win the Most Valuable Player award in the NBA.

Should that be the case?

When you bet futures, you are obviously looking for the ultimate winner in any particular category. But that doesn’t mean you have to catch the short end of the stick as far as the value of the deal you get, especially when you can take at least a little bankroll and “speculate” a bit.

As we explore some of these futures odds, keep in mind that we’re seeking value more than anything else.

Can Embiid Challenge Jokic for MVP?

The only feasible challenger for Jokic in the MVP race right now is Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers. While Jokic is -5500, which means you have to lay $55 to win a dollar, Embiid is +900. Is there that much of a difference between the two?

While Embiid is indeed the best player on a team that will probably win the Eastern Conference regular season title, Jokic has been carrying his West-contending Nuggets in the absence of the injured Jamal Murray (out for the year). Denver is in the upper half of the West standings, so they will host a first-round playoff series. They are +1150 to win the conference title and move on to the Finals. And he is #1 in the league in Player Efficiency Rating.

Jokic is easily a 20-10 guy, and in fact is averaging above 26 points a game, and of course his passing skills are legendary. While he is the team’s highest scorer, the Denver offense is actually more efficient, producing more points per chance, when he is double-teamed, because he is so adept at finding open teammates.

In an era when the center is being fazed out as a focus of the offense, in favor of smaller lineups, Jokic – and Embiid, for that matter – are very unique.

Julius Randle leads the NBA in minutes played. Jokic is second. Jokic is second in Player Efficiency Rating (right behind Embiid), He is the leader in Offensive Win Shares by a wide margin, and is fourth in Defensive Win Shares. He is #1 in “Box Plus-Minus,” which measures the amount of points per 100 possessions a player contributes compared to an average player.

His “Value Over Replacement” figure dwarfs anyone else. It is 8.2, compared to 5.4 for Stephen Curry.

All of this while ranking just 21st in Usage Percentage, So there’s value even when he doesn’t have the ball.

So yeah, I’m not sure I’d want to bet against him.

Can Edwards Challenge Ball for ROY?

As far as Rookie of the Year is concerned, once LaMelo Ball got back on the floor after recovering from his broken wrist, he pretty much sewed it up.

Or did he?

Ball will have ultimately played over 50 games for the Charlotte Hornets, and some would argue that he has had more impact on this team than any other rookie has had on his. For one thing, he is taking the lead guard role, although that is not to say that the Hornets have gone completely without leadership.

But Ball adds versatility to the role, and whatever place Charlotte finds itself in, he would give his club a chance to be competitive. Of course, the chances are good that they’re going to be in a play-in situation, and they are a longshot at best to win the East at 100-1.

To bet on Ball, you are going to be laying a price of -750.

But could the other contender – in fact, the only other one at +350 – pull off the “upset” in the balloting?

Anthony Edwards has not driven the Minnesota Timberwolves to a playoff spot; in fact, far from it. But when you look closely, he has been a different player, statistically, as the season has progressed. In fact, dramatically so.

Edwards was not even in the starting lineup at the outset of the campaign, as the T-Wolves were working him in gradually. Prior to the All-Star break, he was averaging 14.9 points per game. But since then, he’s been scoring at a clip that is 23.5 points per contest, bringing his overall average to 19 ppg. Thus far in the month of May he’s at 26.8 points and 4.6 assists, and he has the solid endorsement of his team leader.

Karl-Anthony Towns, another guy who was taken #1 overall in the NBA Draft, told a reporter from The Athletic, “There ain’t no other rookie in this league getting double-teamed. There ain’t no other rookie putting up the numbers Ant is. There ain’t no other rookie causing the havoc and mayhem before the game even starts with the scouting reports like Anthony is.”

Voters are armed with more in the way of data then any other point in history. And they have more of a tendency to access it in their regular reporting. That might bode well for Edwards, who is making believers out of a lot of people.

Learn to Bet: NBA Player Props Betting Guide

Updated 2021 NBA Title Odds

Brooklyn Nets +175

Los Angeles Lakers +400

Los Angeles Clippers +450

Utah Jazz +600

Philadelphia 76ers +750

Milwaukee Bucks +750

Phoenix +900

Denver Nuggets +2300

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