UFC Fight Night 183 (UFC Vegas 17) is on Saturday. This is the final UFC event of the year. In fact, the UFC will take nearly a month off before coming back on January 16th 2021.
Bet on UFC Vegas 17 (US Bettors)
We’ve had a solid year betting on the UFC here at SAS in 2020.
Last week, I ended up going 2-2 on my UFC 256 picks. I hit Gane ITD and a Gane/Dern parlay, but I ended up losing the co-main event and main event. I ended up down -1.37 units.
At the time of publishing, there are 13 fights scheduled for the final UFC event in 2020. Now, several of these could end up being cancelled, as we’ve seen a lot of cancellations in recent weeks.
Several fights on this card have already had to be cancelled as well.
Thompson vs. Neal Predictions
Fight Odds: Thompson (+100) vs. Neal (-120)
Stephen Thompson (15-4-1) is a UFC veteran that has been with the promotion since 2012. However, he has been inconsistent lately, winning just two of his last five fights.
The good news is he’s coming off a win against Luque. His three losses were all against top fighters as well. The losses were against Woodley, Till and Pettis. None of those guys are slouches.
Geoff Neal (13-2) is 5-0 in the UFC with four stoppage wins. He knocked out Price and Perry last year. He now gets a chance to knockout a veteran with some name recognition among casual fans.
Both guys have a 75” reach and like to bang. Neal has 8 TKO/KO wins and Thompson has 7 TKO/KO wins. These two fighters are going to meet in the center of the cage and bang.
Neal averages 6.04 SLpM, considerably more than Thompson (3.93 SLpM). Neal does average 3.57 SApM, though, while Thompson only averages 2.73 SApM. Neal seems to be coming into his prime.
At 30 years old, Neal could start making a serious push for a title shot at welterweight.
Best Bet: Geoff Neal ML (-120) at BetOnline
Aldo vs. Vera Predictions
Fight Odds: Aldo (-150) vs. Vera (+130)
The co-main event is an interesting one. Jose Aldo (28-7) is back in the cage after suffering a brutal knockout loss against Yan back in July. Aldo is on an 0-3 run and he’s 3-6 in his last nine fights.
Marlon Vera (16-6-1) is coming off a huge upset win against O’Malley. He knocked him out in the first round. Vera has 6 TKO/KO wins and three of those have come in his last five fights.
Aldo has been knocked out four times now in his career. The guys who have knocked him out are all powerful strikers and Vera may not be on that level, but how much punishment can Aldo take?
These two fighters match-up well and Vera has closer to a 50% chance to win this fight, so the value is on him. I expect Vera to catch Aldo with something crazy and knock him out.
If this fight ends up going the distance, Vera may have a tougher time winning a decision.
Best Bet: Marlon Vera ML (+130) at America’s Bookie
Expert UFC Betting Guide
UFC Vegas 17 Underdog Special
My #1 underdog to bet on this Saturday is Khaos Williams (11-1). He just knocked out Alhassan a little more than a month ago and now he is back in the cage to fight Michel Pereira (24-11-0-1).
Williams is 2-0 in the UFC. He won his first fight in 27 seconds and his second fight in 30 seconds.
Pereira is a finisher (10 TKO/KO and 7 Submission wins), but he hasn’t fought top fighters during his career. He has only been stopped twice, but I expect Williams to get another TKO/KO win.
Best Bet: Khaos Williams ML (+105) at Intertops
UFC Vegas 17 Parlay Predictions
With 13 fights on the card, there are plenty of options for your parlays this weekend.
Here’s my parlay:
Nchukwi ML + Roberson ML ($100 Pays $82 Profit)
I’d recommend being cautious with the main card fights. A lot of them are toss ups and could end up going either way. The prelims is where you’ll find some safer favorites to parlay.
This is my banker parlay, but I’ll also add some 3-teamer parlays with some underdogs as the third leg of the wager. That’ll bump up the odds quite a bit if you’re looking for bigger payouts.
Learn to Bet: Boxing Betting Guide
UFC Vegas 17 Betting Lines
Stephen Thompson (-120) vs. Geoff Neal (+100)
Jose Aldo (-150) vs. Marlon Vera (+130)
Michel Pereira (-125) vs. Khaos Williams (+105)
Marlon Moraes (-150) vs. Rob Font (+130)
Greg Hardy (-125) vs. Marcin Tybura (+105)
Anthony Pettis (-230) vs. Alex Morono (+190)
Sijara Eubanks (-160) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+140)
Karl Roberson (-255) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+215)
Antonio Arroyo (-165) vs. Deron Winn (+145)
Drako Rodriguez (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+165)
Tafon Nchukwi (-325) vs. Jamie Pickett (+265)
Jimmy Flick (-150) vs. Cody Durden (+130)
Gillian Robertson (-115) vs. Taila Santos (-105)
