UFC on ESPN+ 40 (UFC Vegas 13) will be hosted at the UFC APEX facility on Saturday.
I ended up going 3-1 (+3.07 units) this past Saturday for UFC on ESPN+ 39. I won my three straight bets on Hall ITD, Hernandez ITD and Mitchell ML, but I lost one fight on my parlay.
I’ll look to keep the current winning streak rolling this week.
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Thiago Santos vs. Glover Teixeira Predictions
Fight Odds: Santos (-235) vs. Teixeira (+200)
Santos (21-7) is coming off a split decision loss to Jon Jones last July, but prior to that he was on a four-fight win streak with wins against Holland, Anders (TKO), Manuwa (KO) and Blachowicz (TKO).
Teixeira (31-7) is on a 4-0 run since last year with wins against Roberson (Submission), Cutelaba (Submission), Krylov and Smith (TKO). At 41 years old, Teixeira is still getting it done in the cage.
These guys match-up very well, so the betting odds surprise me a bit.
Santos averages 4.44 SLpM and 2.19 SApM, while Teixeira averages 3.74 SLpM and 3.87 SApM, but they both land 47% of their strikes and they both have similar defensive numbers.
Teixeira has the wrestling edge as well. He averages 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Santos has improved his takedown defense (68%) and he hasn’t been taken down in his last three fights.
My best bet in the main event is on this fight going over 1.5 rounds. We’re getting a great price on this line. I expect this fight to end by stoppage, but it won’t happen in the first two rounds.
Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-145) at America’s Bookie
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Andrei Arlovski vs. Tanner Boser Predictions
Fight Odds: Arlovski (+250) vs. Boser (-300)
The veteran Arlovski (29-19-0-2) is a big underdog against the Canadian Boser (19-6-1).
Boser is 3-1 in the UFC and he has been turning it up in his last two fights. He has knockout victories against Lins and Pessoa already in 2020, while Arlovski is 2-2 since last year.
Arlovski has decision wins against Rothwell and Lins, but Rozenstruik knocked him out in 29 seconds last year. Arlovski has now been knocked out 11 times in his career.
Boser has 10 TKO/KO wins and he is more than 10 years younger than his opponent.
Neither fighter has much of a takedown game, so I expect Arlovski to get teed off on. Arlovski may be able to stay alive for a bit by utilizing his small reach advantage (2’’), but he’s not winning this.
The fact we’re getting plus money on a TKO/KO win by Boser surprises me.
Best Bet: Tanner Boser by TKO/KO (+170)
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Raoni Barcelos vs. Khalid Taha Predictions
Fight Odds: Barcelos (-365) vs. Taha (+290)
Barcelos (15-1) is 4-0 in the UFC and three of those wins were by stoppage. He won by decision in his last fight against Said Nurmagomedov, but he finished Huachin, Guiterrez and Holobaugh.
Taha (13-2-0-1) is 1-1-0-1 since joining the UFC. Taha has some power (9 TKO/KO wins), but Barcelos is a threat with his striking (8 TKO/KO wins) and ground game (2 Submission wins).
Taha has been tapped out once in his career already. Barcelos averages 4.79 SLpM compared to Taha at 2.64 SLpM. He also averages 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Taha has none in the UFC.
Barcelos should be able to take this fight to the ground and submit his opponent, but he has to be cautious about Taha’s power early on. Once he closes the gap, though, it should be over quick.
Best Bet: Raoni Barcelos ITD (+105)
UFC Vegas 13 Parlay Predictions – How to Bet on UFC
Here’s my UFC parlay for this weekend’s action:
Boser ML + Barcelos ML + Elkins ML (+160 Odds)
Darren Elkins (24-9) is fighting Eduardo Garagorri (13-1) on the prelims on Saturday night.
Garagorri is only 1-1 in the UFC and he’s coming off a loss to Ramos by first-round submission. Elkins is on a four-fight losing streak, but this is a winnable fight against an inexperienced fighter.
Elkins and Garagorri both have power, but Elkins should look to take this fight to the ground.
UFC on ESPN+ 40 Betting Lines
Here are the betting odds for every UFC Vegas 13 fight from America’s Bookie.
Thiago Santos (-235) vs. Glover Teixeira (+200)
Tanner Boser (-300) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+250)
Raoni Barcelos (-365) vs. Khalid Taha (+290)
Brendan Allen (-115) vs. Ian Heinisch (-105)
Yan Xiaonan (-147) vs. Claudia Gadelha (+127)
Bevon Lewis (-120) vs. Trevin Giles (+100)
Giga Chikadze (-750) vs. Jamey Simmons (+550)
Alexander Romanov (-425) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (+325)
Darren Elkins (-230) vs. Eduardo Garagorri (+195)
Max Griffin (-140) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+120)
Anthony Birchak (-125) vs. Gustavo Lopez (+105)
