Hawks vs Bulls Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on this game. Our number has the Hawks at 71.2% and the market has them at 69.6%, a gap too small to bet.

The Atlanta Hawks are -263 and the Chicago Bulls +216 at DraftKings, read 13 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC. With the margin out, that is 69.6% for Atlanta and 30.4% for Chicago. We bet a side only when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. Here they differ by 1.6.

How 71.2% is reached

Our number comes from a team rating, not from last season’s records. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating up after a win and down after a loss. The move is larger for a wide margin and larger against a strong opponent, and it is fast enough that a change in form shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.

The average rating is 1500. The Hawks sit at 1559.7, 14th of 30. The Bulls sit at 1302.7, 27th of 30. The rating was built on 12 November 2026 at 23:33 UTC and holds 12 Hawks games and 10 Bulls games from this season. With Chicago’s home edge added, it gives Atlanta 71.2% and Chicago 28.8%.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -263 and +216 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Hawks are 69.6% and the Bulls 30.4%. Our 71.2% against the market’s 69.6% is a gap of 1.6 points toward Atlanta. The threshold is 5.

A second rule applies to Chicago. We never bet a side the market gives less than 40%, because on underdogs our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. At 30.4%, the Bulls are outside that line whatever the gap.

For reference, last season’s records alone would give Chicago 45.1%. That figure averages the Bulls’ home win rate and the Hawks’ road loss rate. It is no longer the number the call uses, and the rating says Chicago is a much weaker team than those records suggest.

This season so far

Chicago is 1-9, 0-4 at home and 1-8 against the East. Its last game was a 124-119 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday 11 November.

Atlanta is 7-5, 4-2 on the road and 7-1 against the East. Its last game was a 124-114 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday 9 November. These results are inside the rating, which is why the Bulls rank 27th.

Chicago at home, Atlanta on the road

These are last season’s splits. They are context, not the source of our number. The Bulls went 18-23 at the United Center in 2025-26, a 43.9% home win rate. They scored 114.9 points a game there and allowed 118.6, a deficit of 3.7.

The Hawks went 22-19 on the road, losing 46.3% of those games. They scored 119.1 and allowed 118.1, a surplus of 1.0. No neutral-site games were left out for either team.

The halves this game does not use: Atlanta at home went 24-17, scoring 117.8 and allowing 114.0. Chicago on the road went 13-28, scoring 117.7 and allowing 124.4.

The season around it

Over 2025-26 the Bulls finished 31-51, 12th in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 116.3 a game and allowed 121.5, a difference of -5.2. They won 13 games by 10 or more and lost 33 by that much. In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, they went 13-9.

The Hawks finished 46-36, sixth in the East, and lost a playoff series 2-4 to the New York Knicks. They scored 118.5 and allowed 116.0, a difference of +2.5. They won 33 games by 10 or more and lost 19 by that much, and went 9-10 in close games.

The Bulls won all three meetings last season. In Chicago they won 128-123 on 27 October 2025. In Atlanta they won 152-150 on 21 December and 126-123 on 23 December. The rating counts every game since the start of 2025-26, so all three are in our number, and Chicago still ranks 27th of 30.

Pick: No bet

No bet on either side. The gap is 1.6 points toward the Hawks, against a threshold of 5. The Bulls are below the 40% floor and cannot be a bet at this price.

The line read Hawks -263 and Bulls +216 on 13 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved. The price is close to right. Our rating and the book both see the 14th-rated team visiting the 27th, and they agree within 1.6 points on how often that ends in an Atlanta win.

What kills the bet

A longer Atlanta price would make the Hawks a bet. At -196 or longer they are a bet whatever Chicago is priced at. With the Bulls at +216, they become a bet at -163 or longer.

Chicago does not become a bet at any likely price. While the market gives the Bulls under 40% with the margin out, about +150 or longer, the long-shot rule rules them out however wide the gap.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 13 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC, has Tobe Awaka (back) and Caleb Wilson (hand) out for Chicago, with Dailyn Swain (back) and Norman Powell (shoulder) day-to-day. Atlanta has Mouhamed Gueye (foot), Keshon Gilbert (knee), Asa Newell (toe) and Henri Veesaar (knee) out, and Kingston Flemings (back) day-to-day. The rating reads results, not lineups, so none of this list is in our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 246.5, with the over and under both at -110. These counts are from last season against this line. The Bulls’ home games went over 246.5 in 11 of 41, or 26.8%. The Hawks’ road games went over in 16 of 41, or 39.0%. Chicago’s home games averaged 233.5 points and Atlanta’s road games 237.2.

Averaged, the over lands 32.9% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 17.1 points toward the under. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Bulls +6.5 and Hawks -6.5, both at -110, unchanged from the open. Chicago’s home games beat this line 22 of 41 times last season. Atlanta’s road games did it 16 of 41 times. Averaged, Bulls +6.5 covers 57.3% against 50.0% priced, a gap of 7.3 points. That count comes from last season’s records, which the rating now overrules. It is a lean only. The call on this game is no bet.

Hawks at Bulls, Friday 13 November, 8:00 PM ET, United Center, Chicago. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 00:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Rating built 12 November 2026, 23:33 UTC. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 13 November 2026, 00:32 UTC.