Grizzlies vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Pelicans at +119. Our number gives New Orleans 44.9% and the price gives them 43.8%. That gap is 1.1 points, and we bet at 5.

The Memphis Grizzlies are -141 and the New Orleans Pelicans +119 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 56.2% for Memphis and 43.8% for New Orleans. Our number is 55.1% and 44.9%. The 1.1-point gap leans to the Pelicans, and it is too small to stake.

How 44.9% is reached

Our number comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating up after a win and down after a loss. It moves more for a wide margin and more against a strong opponent, and fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.

The Pelicans rate 1308.6, 26th of 30. The Grizzlies rate 1443.9, 20th of 30. An average team is 1500. The ratings were built on 12 November 2026 at 23:33 UTC and include 12 Pelicans games and 11 Grizzlies games from this season. With New Orleans at home, they give the Pelicans 44.9% and the Grizzlies 55.1%.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -141 and +119 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, Memphis is 56.2% and New Orleans 43.8%.

Two rules turn a gap into a call. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by 5 points or more. No side is a bet while the market gives it under 40%, because on underdogs our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. Here the first rule ends it: 1.1 is under 5.

This season so far

The Grizzlies are 7-4, with a 5-0 road record and a 6-3 record against the West. Their last game was a 123-118 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday 11 November. The Pelicans are 4-8, with a 3-4 home record and a 3-6 record against the West, and they lost 145-111 to the Brooklyn Nets the same night.

These games are inside the rating. The 5-0 and 3-4 splits are not used as splits. The rating counts each result once, by its margin and its opponent.

New Orleans at home, Memphis on the road

Last season the Pelicans went 17-24 at the Smoothie King Center, scoring 118.2 a game and allowing 119.5, a margin of -1.3. The Grizzlies went 11-29 on the road, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9, a margin of -8.6. Memphis played 2 games at neutral sites, which sit in neither split. New Orleans played none.

The halves left out: New Orleans went 9-32 on the road with a margin of -7.6, and Memphis 13-27 at home with a margin of -4.0.

Averaging last season’s home win rate and road loss rate would give the Pelicans 57.0%. That figure is context only. It is not the number this call uses. The rating sees this season’s 7-4 and 4-8; the records figure does not.

The season around it

In 2025-26 the Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th in the West. They scored 115.5 a game and allowed 120.0, a difference of -4.5. The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th, scoring 114.7 and allowing 120.7, a difference of -6.0. Both missed the playoffs.

In games decided by 5 points or fewer, New Orleans went 6-13 and Memphis 7-9. The Pelicans played 5 overtime games and the Grizzlies 2. New Orleans won 15 games by 10 or more and lost 25 that way. Memphis won 9 by 10 or more and lost 32.

The four meetings split two each. In Memphis, the Grizzlies won 128-122 on 22 October 2025 and the Pelicans won 133-127 on 23 January 2026. In New Orleans, the Grizzlies won 133-128 in overtime on 26 November 2025 and the Pelicans won 114-106 on 30 January 2026. All four are in the rating, which counts every game from the start of 2025-26.

Pick: No bet

No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 1.1 points toward New Orleans, against a threshold of 5. On our number, +119 prices the Pelicans almost exactly right.

The line read Grizzlies -141 and Pelicans +119 on 12 November 2026 at 23:49 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.

What kills the bet

Here, what would make one. Memphis becomes a bet at -100 or longer, whatever New Orleans is priced at. With the Pelicans at +119, Memphis becomes a bet at +118 or longer.

New Orleans does not become a bet at any price. By the time the gap reached 5, the market would give the Pelicans under 40%, a price of about +150 or longer. The long-shot rule makes that no bet.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 12 November 2026 at 23:49 UTC, has Quinten Post (concussion), Zach Edey (ankle), Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Richie Saunders (knee) out for Memphis. For New Orleans it has Trendon Watford (ankle) and Yves Missi (knee) out, and Bryce McGowens (elbow), Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) and Trey Murphy III (knee) day-to-day. The list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 234.5, over -110 and under -110. The Pelicans’ home games went over 234.5 in 21 of 41 last season, and the Grizzlies’ road games in 19 of 40. New Orleans’ home games averaged 237.7 points, Memphis’ road games 235.2.

That is 51.2% and 47.5%, an average of 49.4% for the over. The market has it at 50.0%, so our count leans to the under by 0.6 points. That is a pass.

The spread is Pelicans +4.5 at -110 and Grizzlies -4.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Last season the Pelicans beat this line in 20 of 41 home games, and the Grizzlies beat it in 9 of 40 road games. Averaged, Pelicans +4.5 lands 63.1% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 13.1 points. That count reads last season’s records, which the method no longer uses, and the method stakes the moneyline only. It is a lean, not a bet. The call on this game is no bet.

Grizzlies at Pelicans, Friday 13 November, 8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 23:49 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Ratings built 12 November 2026, 23:33 UTC. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026, 23:49 UTC.