NBA
NBA · Thursday 12 November
Hornets vs Suns Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Hornets at +206. Last season’s splits give Charlotte 47.6% in Phoenix; the price gives them 31.4%.
The Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns is priced Hornets +206 and Suns -250 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 31.4% for Charlotte and 68.6% for Phoenix. Our number puts the Hornets 16.2 points above the market. We bet at a gap of 5.
How 47.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game last season, so no game is missing from either half.
The Suns went 25-16 at home, a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Hornets went 23-18 on the road, a 43.9% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 52.4% for Phoenix and 47.6% for Charlotte.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -250 and +206 it comes to 104.1%. Taken out, the Suns are 68.6% and the Hornets 31.4%.
What the number does not see
Our number reads 2025-26 only. Phoenix is 4-6 in 2026-27, 4-3 at home, and beat the LA Clippers 133-110 on Tuesday 10 November. Charlotte is 4-7, 1-3 on the road, and beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 124-112 on Monday 9 November.
None of those games is in the number. The Hornets’ 1-3 road start runs against their 23-18 road season. Four games are too few to say which one describes this team, and the method uses the 41.
Phoenix at home, Charlotte on the road
At home the Suns scored 112.0 points a game and allowed 108.4, a margin of 3.6. On the road the Hornets scored 117.0 and allowed 111.2, a margin of 5.8. Those are the two halves the method reads.
The halves it leaves out point the same way. Charlotte at home went 21-20, scoring 115.0 and allowing 111.1. Phoenix on the road went 20-21, scoring 113.2 and allowing 113.8.
The season around it
The Suns finished 45-37, the 8th seed in the Western Conference, and outscored opponents by 1.5 points a game. They lost 4-0 to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs. The Hornets finished 44-38, the 9th seed in the Eastern Conference, outscored opponents by 4.8 a game, and missed the playoffs.
Charlotte’s record in close games, those decided by 5 points or fewer, was 5-11. Phoenix went 12-14 in them. The Hornets won by 10 or more 32 times and lost by 10 or more 19 times; the Suns’ counts were 25 and 17. Charlotte played 3 overtime games, Phoenix 2.
The teams split two meetings. The Suns won 111-99 in Phoenix on Sunday 8 March 2026; that game is in our number, one of the Suns’ 41 home games and one of the Hornets’ 41 road games. The Hornets won 127-107 in Charlotte on Thursday 2 April 2026; that game is in neither half.
Pick: Hornets +206
Bet the Hornets on the moneyline at +206. The gap is 16.2 points toward Charlotte, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Hornets +206 and Suns -250 on 12 November 2026 at 02:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Charlotte price. At +135 or longer the Hornets are a bet whatever Phoenix is priced at. With the Suns at -250, they stay a bet down to -113.
For the Suns to become the bet, they would have to be +111 or longer at any Hornets price, or +239 or longer with Charlotte still at +206. They are -250.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 12 November 2026 at 02:31 UTC, has Grant Williams (hamstring), Brandon Miller (groin), Kon Knueppel (hamstring) and Dennis Schroder (hamstring) out for Charlotte, with Moussa Diabate (quadriceps) day-to-day. Mark Williams (shoulder) is out for Phoenix. The list is not part of our number, and four Hornets out is the main risk in this bet. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Phoenix a 52.4% chance of winning. The case is that +206 pays more than a 47.6% chance needs, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 213.5, over -110 and under -110. The Suns’ home games went over 213.5 in 25 of 41 and averaged 220.4 points. The Hornets’ road games went over in 30 of 41 and averaged 228.2. Across all 82 games the counts were 58 for Phoenix and 62 for Charlotte.
That is 61.0% and 73.2%, an average of 67.1% for the over. The market prices the over at 50.0%, so our count leans over by 17.1 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Suns -7.5 at -110 and Hornets +7.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. The Suns’ home games beat that line 15 of 41 times; the Hornets’ road games beat it 29 of 41 times. Averaged, Suns -7.5 lands 32.9% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 17.1 points toward Hornets +7.5. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Hornets at +206.
Hornets at Suns, Thursday 12 November, 9:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 02:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 12 November 2026, 02:31 UTC.