Nuggets vs Grizzlies Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Nuggets at -156. Our number gives Denver on the road 65.5%; the price gives them 58.5%.

For the Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, DraftKings has Denver -156 and Memphis +131. With the margin out, that is 58.5% for Denver and 41.5% for Memphis. Last season’s home and road records put Denver 7.0 points higher than the market does. Our Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction rests on that gap, and we bet at 5.

How 65.5% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two of those, Denver none.

The Grizzlies went 13-27 at FedExForum, a 32.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Nuggets went 26-15 on the road and lost 15 of 41, a 36.6% road loss rate. The midpoint is 34.5% for Memphis and 65.5% for Denver.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -156 and +131 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Nuggets are 58.5% and the Grizzlies 41.5%.

This season so far

Memphis is 7-3 in 2026-27, 2-3 at home and 6-2 against the West. Its last game was a 118-102 win at the Toronto Raptors on Monday 9 November. Denver is 5-4, 2-2 on the road and 3-4 against the West, and lost 110-100 at the Houston Rockets the same night.

None of that is in our number, which reads 2025-26 only. Ten games and nine games prove nothing as rates. Still, a Memphis team that has already won seven is the main risk to a method built on last season’s 25-57.

Memphis at home, Denver on the road

At home the Grizzlies scored 115.8 points a game and allowed 119.8, a deficit of 4.0. The Nuggets on the road scored 123.3 and allowed 118.6, a surplus of 4.7.

The method leaves out two halves. Denver at home went 28-13, scoring 120.8 and allowing 115.2. Memphis on the road went 11-29, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9.

The season around it

The Grizzlies finished 25-57, the 13th seed in the West, and were outscored by 6.0 points a game (114.7 for, 120.7 against). They missed the playoffs. They won 9 games by 10 or more and lost 32 by 10 or more. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 7-9, with 2 going to overtime.

The Nuggets finished 54-28, the 3rd seed, and outscored opponents by 5.2 a game (122.1 for, 116.9 against). They won 28 games by 10 or more and lost 9 by that much. Their close-game record was 15-13, with 9 overtime games. In the playoffs they lost 4-2 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Denver won three of the four meetings. In Memphis, the Nuggets won 125-115 on 24 November 2025 and the Grizzlies won 125-118 on 18 March 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of Memphis’s 40 home games and two of Denver’s 41 road games. In Denver, the Nuggets won 122-116 on 11 February and 136-119 on 8 April. Neither half of the method includes those.

Pick: Nuggets -156

Bet the Nuggets on the moneyline at -156. The gap is 7.0 points toward Denver, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Nuggets -156 and Grizzlies +131 on 11 November 2026 at 01:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Denver price. At -153 or longer the Nuggets are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at +131, Denver stays a bet down to -198.

Memphis becomes the bet only at +292 or longer against Denver’s current -156, or at +239 or longer whatever Denver is priced at. The Grizzlies are +131.

ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026 at 01:32 UTC, has Scotty Pippen Jr. (back), Quinten Post (head) and Richie Saunders (knee) out and Isaiah Stewart (knee) day-to-day for Memphis. Julian Strawther (knee) is out for Denver. None of these absences changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 228.5, over -106 and under -114. Memphis’s home games went over 228.5 in 28 of 40 last season, a 70.0% rate, and averaged 235.6 points. Denver’s road games went over in 32 of 41, a 78.0% rate, and averaged 241.9.

That averages to 74.0% for the over. With the margin removed, the market gives the over 49.1% and the under 50.9%. Our count leans over by 24.9 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Grizzlies +4.5 at -114 and Nuggets -4.5 at -106. It opened at 4.5 and has not moved. Memphis at home beat this line in 18 of 40, and Denver on the road beat it in 18 of 41. Our count gives Grizzlies +4.5 a 50.5% chance against 50.9% priced, a gap of 0.3 toward Nuggets -4.5, which says nothing. One bet on this game: the Nuggets at -156.

Nuggets at Grizzlies, Wednesday 11 November, 8:00 PM ET, FedExForum, Memphis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 01:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 11 November 2026, 01:32 UTC.