NBA
NBA · Wednesday 11 November
Spurs vs Bulls Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Bulls at +492. Our number gives Chicago at home 36.6%; the price gives them 16.2%.
The San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, Wednesday 11 November at 8:00 PM ET, is priced Spurs -680 and Bulls +492 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 83.8% for San Antonio and 16.2% for Chicago. Last season’s home and road records put Chicago 20.4 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.
How 36.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. San Antonio played one, Chicago none.
The Bulls went 18-23 at the United Center, a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Spurs went 29-12 on the road. They lost 12 of 41, a 29.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 36.6% for Chicago and 63.4% for San Antonio.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -680 and +492 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Spurs are 83.8% and the Bulls 16.2%. The gap of 20.4 points sits four times over our threshold.
This season is not in our number. The Bulls are 1-8, and 0-3 at home. Their last game was a 127-121 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday 8 November. The Spurs are 9-2, 5-0 on the road, and beat the Phoenix Suns 122-96 in Phoenix on Monday 9 November. Our method reads 2025-26 only. Eleven games for San Antonio and nine for Chicago point the same way as the price. That is the main risk in this bet, and the sample is too short to replace a full season.
Chicago at home, San Antonio on the road
At home the Bulls scored 114.9 points a game and allowed 118.6, a margin of -3.7. The Spurs on the road scored 119.4 and allowed 111.2, a margin of 8.2.
The halves the method leaves out are both worse for Chicago. The Bulls went 13-28 on the road, scoring 117.7 and allowing 124.4. The Spurs went 32-8 at home, scoring 120.5 and allowing 111.9.
The season around it
Over the full 2025-26 season, the Spurs finished 62-20, the second seed in the West, with a point difference of 8.3 a game. The Bulls finished 31-51, twelfth in the East, at -5.2 a game. San Antonio won 43 games by 10 or more and lost 8 that way. Chicago won 13 by 10 or more and lost 33.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Chicago went 13-9 and San Antonio 13-10. Each team played 2 overtime games. The Bulls missed the playoffs. The Spurs beat the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 and the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the New York Knicks.
The Spurs won both meetings. In Chicago on Monday 10 November 2025 they won 121-117. That game is in our number: one of the Bulls’ 41 home games and one of the Spurs’ 41 road games. In San Antonio on Monday 30 March 2026 they won 129-114. That game is in neither half.
Pick: Bulls +492
Bet the Bulls on the moneyline at +492. The gap is 20.4 points toward Chicago, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Bulls +492 and Spurs -680 on 10 November 2026 at 22:45 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Bulls +451 and Spurs -610. Since the open, the market gives the Spurs 1.2 points more: 83.8% now against 82.6% then.
What kills the bet
A shorter Chicago price. At +216 or longer the Bulls are a bet whatever San Antonio is priced at. With the Spurs at -680, they stay a bet down to +148.
For the Spurs to become the bet, they would have to be priced at -140 or longer, whatever Chicago is priced at. They are -680.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 10 November 2026 at 22:45 UTC, has Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) out and Devin Vassell (groin) day-to-day for San Antonio. For Chicago, Norman Powell (shoulder), Tobe Awaka (back) and Zach Collins (illness) are day-to-day. Our number reads last season’s rates, so the list does not change it. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Chicago a 63.4% chance of losing. The case is that +492 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 238.5, over -110 and under -110. The Bulls’ home games went over 238.5 in 14 of 41, a 34.1% rate. The Spurs’ road games went over in 11 of 41, 26.8%. Chicago’s home games averaged 233.5 points and San Antonio’s road games 230.6.
Averaged, the over lands 30.5% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 19.5 points toward the under. Over the full season the Bulls’ games went over in 35 of 82 and the Spurs’ in 28 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Bulls +15.5 at -111 and Spurs -15.5 at -109. It opened at 14.5. Chicago at home won, or lost by 15 or fewer, in 32 of 41. San Antonio on the road won by 16 or more in 11 of 41. Averaged, Bulls +15.5 lands 75.6% of the time against 50.2% priced, a gap of 25.4 points. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Bulls at +492.
Spurs at Bulls, Wednesday 11 November, 8:00 PM ET, United Center, Chicago. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 November 2026, 22:45 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 10 November 2026, 22:45 UTC.