NBA
NBA · Wednesday 11 November
Nets vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number has New Orleans at 61.0% at home; the price says 59.7%.
The Brooklyn Nets are +138 and the New Orleans Pelicans -164 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 40.3% for Brooklyn and 59.7% for New Orleans. Last season’s home and road records put the Pelicans 1.3 points higher than the market. We bet at 5, so this price is close to right.
How 61.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so none is left out.
The Pelicans went 17-24 at Smoothie King Center, a 41.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Nets went 8-33 on the road and lost 33 of 41, an 80.5% road loss rate. The midpoint is 61.0% for New Orleans and 39.0% for Brooklyn.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -164 and +138 the two prices come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 59.7% and the Nets 40.3%.
This season so far
New Orleans is 4-7 in 2026-27 and 3-3 at home. Its last game was a 138-87 loss at the Golden State Warriors on Monday 9 November. Brooklyn is 2-8 and 1-5 on the road, and lost 130-93 at the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday 8 November.
None of those games is in our number. The method reads 2025-26 only, and rosters change over a summer. That is the limit of this measurement, stated plainly.
New Orleans at home, Brooklyn on the road
At home the Pelicans scored 118.2 points a game and allowed 119.5, a margin of -1.3. The Nets on the road scored 103.5 and allowed 116.8, a margin of -13.3. These are the two halves the method uses.
The halves it leaves out: Brooklyn at home went 12-29, scoring 108.4 and allowing 115.0. New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5.
The season around it
The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th in the Western Conference, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0, a point difference of -4.5 a game. The Nets finished 20-62, 13th in the Eastern Conference, scoring 105.9 and allowing 115.9, a point difference of -10.0 a game. Neither made the playoffs.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, New Orleans went 6-13 and Brooklyn 2-12. The Pelicans won 15 games by 10 or more and lost 25 by that much. The Nets won 12 by 10 or more and lost 43.
The teams split two meetings. In Brooklyn on Saturday 6 December 2025, the Nets won 119-101; that game is in neither half of our number. In New Orleans on Wednesday 14 January 2026, the Pelicans won 116-113; that one is in it, as one of the Pelicans’ 41 home games and one of the Nets’ 41 road games.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.3 points toward the Pelicans, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Pelicans -164 and Nets +138 on 10 November 2026 at 22:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A longer New Orleans price would make the Pelicans a bet. At -127 or longer they are a bet whatever Brooklyn is priced at; with the Nets at +138, they become a bet at -115 or longer.
For the Nets to become the bet, the price would have to drift out to +194 or longer whatever New Orleans is priced at. Against the current -164 on the Pelicans, Brooklyn needs +212 or longer. Today it is +138.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 10 November 2026 at 22:32 UTC, has Trendon Watford (ankle) and Yves Missi (knee) out and Trey Murphy III (knee) day-to-day for New Orleans. For Brooklyn it has Egor Demin (leg) out, and Mikel Brown Jr. (rest) and Grant Nelson (knee) day-to-day. The method reads last season’s records only, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 230.5, over -110 and under -110. The Pelicans’ home games went over 230.5 in 26 of 41, a 63.4% rate, and averaged 237.7 points. The Nets’ road games went over in 10 of 41, a 24.4% rate, and averaged 220.3.
The average of those two rates is 43.9% for the over, against 50.0% priced. That leans to the under by 6.1 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and the moneyline is a pass, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Pelicans -4.5 at -110 and Nets +4.5 at -110, unchanged from the opening line. New Orleans beat -4.5 in 14 of 41 home games; Brooklyn beat +4.5 in 13 of 41 road games. Averaged, Pelicans -4.5 lands 51.2% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 1.2 points. That is too small to call anything. On this game the call is no bet.
Nets at Pelicans, Wednesday 11 November, 8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 November 2026, 22:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 10 November 2026, 22:32 UTC.