Laying points with the Mavericks in 2025-26 brought 9 covers in 24 games, a rate only three NBA teams fell below. Dallas Mavericks predictions for the coming games are above; the record behind that number is below.
When Dallas gave points
The Mavericks were favored 24 times, went 12-12 and covered 9, 37.5%. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Indiana Pacers and the Chicago Bulls covered less often as favorites. One unit on Dallas to win in those games lost 4.82. Getting points, the Mavericks were 14-44 and covered 28 of 58, 48.3%, with the moneyline 6.11 units down.
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
The first week set the tone: home losses as favorites to the San Antonio Spurs, 125-92 at -170, and to the Washington Wizards, 117-107 at -425. In February the Sacramento Kings won 130-121 in Dallas with the Mavericks at -310.
26-56 in 82 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
One unit on the Mavericks every game finished 10.93 units down, 5.63 of it lost at home and 4.3 on the road. December and January made money, 13-15 together and 8.18 units up; February gave most of it back at 2-8 and 6.32 down. The longest price cashed was +750, 130-120 at Cleveland on 15 March.
The West opponents
The Spurs beat Dallas four times and the Mavericks covered none; the last was 139-120 with Dallas getting 18.5. Minnesota also went 4-0, with one Dallas cover. The New Orleans Pelicans won three of four and Dallas covered none of them. The Houston Rockets were the reverse: a 2-2 split, and Dallas covered all four. Sacramento took two of three, and Dallas covered none of those. Only Brooklyn lost every meeting, 3-0 to Dallas with three Mavericks covers.
2025-26 regular season; dark is wins, light the games played. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.
The total
Unders took 45 of the 82, 54.9%, a rate beaten by four teams; Brooklyn, Chicago and the Phoenix Suns matched the Mavericks’ rate.
Questions and answers
How did the Mavericks cover when favored?
Rarely in 2025-26: 9 covers in 24 games as favorite, 37.5%, fourth-lowest of the 30 teams.
How did the Mavericks do against the Spurs?
0-4, and Dallas did not cover once.
Is the under the Mavericks lean?
A mild one: 45 of 82 Dallas games stayed under in 2025-26, 54.9%.