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Miami Heat

NBA

Only four NBA teams covered the spread more often than the Heat in 2025-26, and only Denver scored more points a game. The Miami Heat covered 46 of 82, and 47 of their games went over the total.

A cover team, every way you cut it

Forty-six covers, 36 misses: 56.1%. The four ahead of Miami were the Charlotte Hornets, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns. The rate barely moved by role: 23 of 41 at home, 23 of 41 away, 22 of 40 as favorites, 24 of 42 as underdogs.

The Heat 2025-26 regular season, game by game2025-10-22 at Orlando Magic 121-1252025-10-24 at Memphis Grizzlies 146-1142025-10-26 v New York Knicks 115-1072025-10-28 v Charlotte Hornets 144-1172025-10-30 at San Antonio Spurs 101-1072025-11-02 at Los Angeles Lakers 120-1302025-11-03 at LA Clippers 120-1192025-11-05 at Denver Nuggets 112-1222025-11-07 v Charlotte Hornets 126-1082025-11-08 v Portland Trail Blazers 136-1312025-11-10 v Cleveland Cavaliers 140-1382025-11-12 v Cleveland Cavaliers 116-1302025-11-14 at New York Knicks 132-1402025-11-17 v New York Knicks 115-1132025-11-19 v Golden State Warriors 110-962025-11-21 at Chicago Bulls 143-1072025-11-23 at Philadelphia 76ers 127-1172025-11-24 v Dallas Mavericks 106-1022025-11-26 v Milwaukee Bucks 106-1032025-11-29 v Detroit Pistons 135-1382025-12-01 v LA Clippers 140-1232025-12-03 at Dallas Mavericks 108-1182025-12-05 at Orlando Magic 105-1062025-12-06 v Sacramento Kings 111-1272025-12-09 at Orlando Magic 108-1172025-12-15 v Toronto Raptors 96-1062025-12-18 at Brooklyn Nets 106-952025-12-19 at Boston Celtics 116-1292025-12-21 at New York Knicks 125-1322025-12-23 v Toronto Raptors 91-1122025-12-26 at Atlanta Hawks 126-1112025-12-27 v Indiana Pacers 142-1162025-12-29 v Denver Nuggets 147-1232026-01-01 at Detroit Pistons 118-1122026-01-03 v Minnesota Timberwolves 115-1252026-01-04 v New Orleans Pelicans 125-1062026-01-06 at Minnesota Timberwolves 94-1222026-01-10 at Indiana Pacers 99-1232026-01-11 at Oklahoma City Thunder 112-1242026-01-13 v Phoenix Suns 127-1212026-01-15 v Boston Celtics 114-1192026-01-17 v Oklahoma City Thunder 122-1202026-01-19 at Golden State Warriors 112-1352026-01-20 at Sacramento Kings 130-1172026-01-22 at Portland Trail Blazers 110-1272026-01-24 at Utah Jazz 147-1162026-01-25 at Phoenix Suns 111-1022026-01-28 v Orlando Magic 124-1332026-01-29 at Chicago Bulls 116-1132026-01-31 v Chicago Bulls 118-1252026-02-01 v Chicago Bulls 134-912026-02-03 v Atlanta Hawks 115-1272026-02-06 at Boston Celtics 96-982026-02-08 at Washington Wizards 132-1012026-02-09 v Utah Jazz 111-1152026-02-11 at New Orleans Pelicans 123-1112026-02-20 at Atlanta Hawks 128-972026-02-21 v Memphis Grizzlies 136-1202026-02-24 at Milwaukee Bucks 117-1282026-02-26 at Philadelphia 76ers 117-1242026-02-28 v Houston Rockets 115-1052026-03-03 v Brooklyn Nets 124-982026-03-05 v Brooklyn Nets 126-1102026-03-06 at Charlotte Hornets 128-1202026-03-08 v Detroit Pistons 121-1102026-03-10 v Washington Wizards 150-1292026-03-12 v Milwaukee Bucks 112-1052026-03-14 v Orlando Magic 117-1212026-03-17 at Charlotte Hornets 106-1362026-03-19 v Los Angeles Lakers 126-1342026-03-21 at Houston Rockets 122-1232026-03-23 v San Antonio Spurs 111-1362026-03-25 at Cleveland Cavaliers 120-1032026-03-27 at Cleveland Cavaliers 128-1492026-03-29 at Indiana Pacers 118-1352026-03-30 v Philadelphia 76ers 119-1092026-04-01 v Boston Celtics 129-1472026-04-04 v Washington Wizards 152-1362026-04-07 at Toronto Raptors 95-1212026-04-09 at Toronto Raptors 114-1282026-04-10 at Washington Wizards 140-1172026-04-12 v Atlanta Hawks 143-117Wins above the line, losses below; bar length is the margincovered the spreaddid not cover0
43-39 in 82 games. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Overs, and the points behind them

Miami scored 120.87 a game and allowed 118.54. Forty-seven overs against 35 unders: three teams went over more often, and Washington matched the Heat’s 57.3%. March was the loudest month for it, 11 overs in 15.

The moneyline lives at home

Straight up the Heat were 26-15 at home and 17-24 away. One unit on them to win every home game made 4.80 units, fourth in the NBA. The same bet on the road lost 6.32.

The Heat at home, away, as favorite and as underdogHome (41)won 26 (63.4%)covered 23 of 41 (56.1%)Away (41)won 17 (41.5%)covered 23 of 41 (56.1%)Favorite (40)won 25 (62.5%)covered 22 of 40 (55.0%)Underdog (42)won 18 (42.9%)covered 24 of 42 (57.1%)50%
2025-26 regular season. Neutral-site games are in neither home nor away. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Price told the same story. As underdogs, 42 games and 4.17 units won, a return four teams beat; as favorites, 40 games and 5.69 units lost. The best underdog cash was a +390 home win over Oklahoma City, 122-120, with a +250 home win over Cleveland, 140-138, behind it. The worst favorite loss, at -360 against Sacramento, was also at home, 127-111.

November made 5.48 units at 10-5; December handed back 4.58 at 5-8.

One unit on the Heat to win, every game0+2+4+6-1.52 unitsfirst gamelast game
Running total over 82 priced 2025-26 regular-season games, at the pre-game moneyline. Source: ESPN results and pre-game lines.

Three teams they could not beat

The Orlando Magic won all five meetings. The Boston Celtics took four of four, and so did the Toronto Raptors, with Miami missing the spread in every Toronto game. Thirteen games, thirteen defeats, 13 units lost. The Washington Wizards, by contrast, lost all four to Miami, and the Heat went 3-1 with three covers against both the Charlotte Hornets and the Chicago Bulls.

Questions and answers

How often did the Heat cover the spread in 2025-26?

46 times in 82, 56.1%: only four NBA teams did better.

How many Heat games went over in 2025-26?

47 of 82, against 35 unders, with Miami scoring 120.87 a game.

Is the Heat moneyline better at home?

It was: 4.80 units won at home over 41 games, 6.32 lost on the road over 41.

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