Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves won 49 times in 2025-26 but covered just 37 of 82. Minnesota paid best as an underdog: 1.9 units up in 22 games, including road wins at Houston at +370 and at Boston at +340.

Wins, not covers

Minnesota went 49-33 and 37-45 against the spread, 45.1%. The covers split evenly: 18 in 41 at home, 19 in 41 away.

The season opened with five misses in five October games. February was the other hole: 6-4 straight up, two covers in ten. January and March carried the season the other way, 10-6 and 9-6, with ten and eight covers; March added 1.77 units.

Underdog and favorite

As underdogs the Wolves went 8-14 and returned 1.9 units across 22 games. The two longest prices both landed on the road: 136-132 at the Houston Rockets on 10 April at +370, and 102-92 at the Boston Celtics on 22 March at +340.

As favorites they went 41-19 and covered 26 of 60; the moneyline in those games lost 3.85 units. The Brooklyn Nets won 123-107 in Minnesota on 27 December with the Wolves at -650, and the Utah Jazz won 127-122 at home on 20 January at the same price.

Across the 81 games with a moneyline, one unit on Minnesota each time finished 1.95 down: 0.68 up on the road, 2.64 down at home.

The West

The Dallas Mavericks lost all four meetings and Minnesota covered three. Against the Los Angeles Clippers the series split 2-2 and Minnesota covered none. The Denver Nuggets won three of four. The Oklahoma City Thunder split four with Minnesota, but the Wolves covered three and backing them made 1.8 units; two of the wins were at home as underdogs, at +210 and +170. The Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings each went 1-3 against them, with three Minnesota covers.

The total

Forty-four unders, 38 overs: not enough to call a lean. Minnesota scored 118.0 points a game, seventh in the NBA, and allowed 114.65.

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