NBA
NBA · Friday 6 November
Timberwolves vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Pelicans at +139. Our number gives New Orleans 42.7%; the price gives them 40.2%, short of our 5-point bar.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are -165 and the New Orleans Pelicans +139 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 59.8% for Minnesota and 40.2% for New Orleans. Last season’s home and road records put the Pelicans 2.5 points higher than that. We bet at 5, so this game is a pass.
How 42.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so both halves are complete.
The Pelicans went 17-24 at Smoothie King Center, a 41.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Timberwolves went 23-18 on the road and lost 18 of 41, a 43.9% road loss rate. The midpoint is 42.7% for New Orleans and 57.3% for Minnesota.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +139 and -165 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 40.2% and the Timberwolves 59.8%. Our figure and the market’s sit 2.5 points apart. That is half the gap we require.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only. The 2026-27 games are outside it. Minnesota is 6-3, with a 3-2 road record, and won 117-107 at the Houston Rockets on Wednesday 4 November. New Orleans is 4-4, 3-2 at home, and beat the Utah Jazz 120-113 in overtime on the same night.
Nine games and eight games are too few to say anything with a rate attached. We give the records and draw nothing from them.
New Orleans at home, Minnesota on the road
At home the Pelicans scored 118.2 points a game and allowed 119.5, a deficit of 1.3. The Timberwolves on the road scored 121.2 and allowed 118.2, a surplus of 3.0.
The halves the method leaves out show a wider split. Minnesota at home went 26-15, scoring 114.8 and allowing 111.1, a surplus of 3.7. New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5, a deficit of 7.6. That road record is the Pelicans’ weakest half, and this game is in their arena, so it stays out of our number.
The season around it
The Timberwolves finished 49-33, sixth in the West, scoring 118.0 and allowing 114.6, a difference of 3.4 a game. They won by 10 or more 28 times and lost by 10 or more 18 times. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 11-12, with 4 overtime games. In the playoffs they beat the Denver Nuggets 4-2 and lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-2.
The Pelicans finished 26-56, eleventh in the West, and missed the playoffs. They scored 115.5 and allowed 120.0, a difference of -4.5 a game. They won by 10 or more 15 times and lost by 10 or more 25 times. Their record in games of 5 points or fewer was 6-13, with 5 overtime games.
Minnesota won three of the four meetings. In New Orleans, the Timberwolves won 149-142 in overtime on 2 December 2025 and 125-116 on 4 December 2025; those games are in our number, two of the Pelicans’ 41 home games and two of the Timberwolves’ 41 road games. In Minnesota, the Pelicans won 119-115 on 6 February 2026 and the Timberwolves won 132-126 on 12 April 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 2.5 points toward the Pelicans, against a threshold of 5. Below that line we treat the difference as noise in a 41-game split, and 41 games is what each half has.
The line read Timberwolves -165 and Pelicans +139 on 6 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Timberwolves -188 and Pelicans +157. Since the open the market has moved toward New Orleans: it gave the Pelicans 37.3% then and gives them 40.2% now, 2.8 points more. That move took the price closer to our number and shrank the gap.
What kills the bet
A longer Pelicans price turns the pass into a bet. At +165 or longer, New Orleans is a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at, and the same +165 holds against the current -165.
For the Timberwolves to become the bet, the market would have to fall a long way. At -109 or longer Minnesota is a bet whatever the Pelicans price; with New Orleans at +139, the Timberwolves become a bet only at +118 or longer.
ESPN’s injury list, read 6 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, has Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) out and Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip) day-to-day for Minnesota. For New Orleans it has Yves Missi (knee) out and Trey Murphy III (knee) day-to-day. The list is not in our number and does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 229.5, over -105 and under -115. The Pelicans’ home games went over 229.5 in 27 of 41, a 65.9% rate, and averaged 237.7 points. The Timberwolves’ road games went over in 25 of 41, a 61.0% rate, and averaged 239.4. Across all 82 games, New Orleans went over 52 times and Minnesota 44 times.
The average of the two venue rates is 63.4% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, so our count leans to the over by 14.5 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, and the page holds no bet on it.
The spread is Pelicans +4.5 and Timberwolves -4.5, both at -110; it opened Pelicans +5.5. New Orleans at home beat this line in 20 of 41 games. Minnesota on the road beat -4.5 in 19 of 41. Averaged, Pelicans +4.5 lands 51.2% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 1.2 points. That is too small to act on even as a lean that matters. No bet on this game.
Timberwolves at Pelicans, Friday 6 November, 8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 02:32 UTC.