Thunder vs Grizzlies Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Thunder to win in Memphis. Our number gives Oklahoma City on the road 71.2%; the price gives them 59.8%.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are -165 and the Memphis Grizzlies +139 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 59.8% for Oklahoma City and 40.2% for Memphis. Last season’s home and road records put the Thunder 11.4 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.

How 71.2% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two of those and Oklahoma City one.

The Grizzlies went 13-27 at FedExForum, a 32.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Thunder went 30-10 on the road and lost 10 of 40, a 25.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 28.8% for Memphis, which leaves 71.2% for Oklahoma City.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -165 and +139 the two come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Thunder are 59.8% and the Grizzlies 40.2%.

Both teams are 6-2 this season. The Thunder are 2-2 on the road and beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 124-116 on Wednesday 4 November. The Grizzlies are 2-2 at home, 6-1 against the Western Conference, and lost 107-103 to the Indiana Pacers the same night. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so none of these eight games is in it. A Memphis team that went 25-57 last season and has started 6-2 is the main risk in this bet. The method does not see the change.

Memphis at home, Oklahoma City on the road

At home the Grizzlies scored 115.8 points a game and allowed 119.8, a deficit of 4.0. The Thunder on the road scored 119.2 and allowed 108.3, a surplus of 10.9. These are the two halves the method uses.

The halves it leaves out: Memphis on the road went 11-29, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9, a deficit of 8.6. Oklahoma City at home went 34-7, scoring 119.1 and allowing 107.3, a surplus of 11.8. On both sides the omitted half points the same way as the half we use.

The season around it

The Thunder finished 2025-26 at 64-18, first in the West, scoring 119.0 and allowing 107.9, a difference of 11.1 a game. They won 43 games by 10 or more and lost 9 by that much. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 9-7, with 5 overtime games. In the playoffs they beat the Phoenix Suns 4-0 and the Los Angeles Lakers 4-0, then lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-3.

The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the West, and missed the playoffs. They scored 114.7 and allowed 120.7, a difference of -6.0 a game. They lost 32 games by 10 or more and won 9 by that much. Their close-game record was 7-9, with 2 overtime games.

The Thunder won all three meetings. In Memphis they won 114-100 on 9 November 2025 and 117-116 on 9 January 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of the Grizzlies’ 40 home games and two of the Thunder’s 40 road games. In Oklahoma City the Thunder won 119-103 on 22 December 2025, and that game is in neither half. Three games prove nothing on their own. The one-point game in January is the only one that was close.

Pick: Thunder -165

Bet the Thunder on the moneyline at -165. The gap is 11.4 points toward Oklahoma City, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Thunder -165 and Grizzlies +139 on 6 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same two prices, so it has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Oklahoma City price. At -196 or longer the Thunder are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at +139, they stay a bet as short as -459. Past that, the gap falls under 5 points and the call is no bet.

For Memphis to become the bet, the Grizzlies would need to reach +320 or longer whatever the Thunder price. Against the current -165, it would take +413 or longer. They are +139.

ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, lists Chet Holmgren (knee), Cason Wallace (shoulder), Jaylin Williams (back), Nikola Topic (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee) out for Oklahoma City. Isaiah Stewart (knee) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) are out for Memphis. Our number reads last season’s splits only, so the list does not change it. Holmgren is the absence that matters most to this price. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Memphis a 28.8% chance of winning. The case is that -165 prices the Thunder at 59.8% when last season’s evidence says 71.2%.

The total and the spread

The total is 225.5, over -110 and under -110. The Grizzlies’ home games went over 225.5 in 29 of 40 and averaged 235.6 points. The Thunder’s road games went over in 23 of 40 and averaged 227.5. Across all 82 games, Memphis went over in 60 and Oklahoma City in 42.

That is 72.5% and 57.5%, an average of 65.0% for the over. With the margin out the over is priced at 50.0%, so our count leans over by 15.0 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Thunder -3.5 at -110 and Grizzlies +3.5 at -110, unchanged since opening. Memphis beat that line in 17 of 40 home games. Oklahoma City beat it in 28 of 40 road games. Averaged, the Grizzlies cover 36.3% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 13.8 points toward Thunder -3.5. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Thunder at -165.

Thunder at Grizzlies, Friday 6 November, 8:00 PM ET, FedExForum, Memphis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 02:32 UTC.