Jazz vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Jazz at +172. Our number gives Utah 39.0%, the price gives them 35.3%, and 3.7 points is short of the 5 we bet at.

The Utah Jazz are +172 and the New Orleans Pelicans -207 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 35.3% for Utah and 64.7% for New Orleans. Our number sits 3.7 points closer to the Jazz than the market does. That is a lean, and below our threshold a lean is a pass.

How 61.0% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so no games are left out of either half.

The Pelicans went 17-24 at Smoothie King Center, a 41.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Jazz went 8-33 on the road, an 80.5% road loss rate over 41 games. The average is 61.0% for New Orleans and 39.0% for Utah.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +172 and -207 the two come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 64.7% and the Jazz 35.3%. The gap is 3.7 points toward Utah.

This season so far

Our number reads 2025-26 only. The Pelicans are 3-4 this season and 2-2 at home, and they won 135-134 in overtime at Memphis on Monday 2 November. The Jazz are 1-6 and 0-2 on the road, and lost 119-97 at San Antonio the same night.

Seven games each is too few to describe either team. None of it is in our number, and none of it changes the call.

New Orleans at home, Utah on the road

At home the Pelicans scored 118.2 points a game and allowed 119.5, a margin of -1.3. The Jazz on the road scored 114.0 and allowed 125.6, a margin of -11.6. Those two splits are the halves the method uses.

The halves the method leaves out: Utah at home went 14-27, scoring 121.2 and allowing 126.4. New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5. Both teams were worse away from home, and the method only counts the side of each that plays in this game.

The season around it

The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th in the Western Conference, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0, a difference of -4.5 a game. The Jazz finished 22-60, 15th, scoring 117.6 and allowing 126.0, a difference of -8.4. Neither team made the playoffs.

In games decided by 5 points or fewer, New Orleans went 6-13 and Utah 9-11. Each team played 5 overtime games. The Pelicans won by 10 or more 15 times and lost by 10 or more 25 times. The Jazz won by 10 or more 9 times and lost by 10 or more 41 times.

The Pelicans won the three 2025-26 meetings. In Utah, they won 129-118 on 26 February and 115-105 on 28 February; those games are in neither half. In New Orleans, they won 156-137 on 7 April. That game is in our number: one of the Pelicans’ 41 home games and one of the Jazz’s 41 road games.

Pick: No bet

No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 3.7 points toward the Jazz, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Jazz +172 and Pelicans -207 on 4 November 2026 at 00:44 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved since opening. At 35.3% the price sits within our tolerance of last season’s evidence, and we take it as fair.

What kills the bet

A longer Utah price makes the Jazz a bet. With the Pelicans at -207, the Jazz become a bet at +188 or longer. At +194 or longer they are a bet whatever New Orleans is priced at.

For the Pelicans to become the bet, their price would have to drift to -127 or longer. They are -207, so that side is further away than the Jazz side.

ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026 at 00:44 UTC, lists Jusuf Nurkic (foot), Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) and Trey Alexander (knee) out and Mo Bamba (ankle) day-to-day for Utah. For New Orleans it lists Jordan Poole (ankle) and Yves Missi (knee) out and Trey Murphy III (knee) day-to-day. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 235.5, over -106 and under -114. The Pelicans’ home games went over 235.5 in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate. The Jazz’s road games went over in 24 of 41, 58.5%. New Orleans home games averaged 237.7 points and Utah road games 239.6.

The average of those two rates is 53.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.1% and the under at 50.9%, so our count leans to the over by 4.5 points. That is under the threshold, and the method stakes the moneyline only. Pass.

The spread is Pelicans -5.5 at -106 and Jazz +5.5 at -114, and it opened at 5.5. The Pelicans at home beat this line in 13 of 41 games; the Jazz on the road beat it in 15 of 41. Averaged, the Pelicans cover 47.6% of the time against 49.1% priced, a gap of 1.6 points toward Jazz +5.5. That is a lean, and a small one. No bet on this game.

Jazz at Pelicans, Wednesday 4 November, 8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4 November 2026, 00:44 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026, 00:44 UTC.