Pacers vs Grizzlies Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Pacers at +212. Our number gives Indiana on the road 43.5%; the price gives them 30.8%.

The Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies game has Indiana at +212 and Memphis at -258 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 30.8% for the Pacers and 69.2% for the Grizzlies. Last season’s home and road records put Indiana 12.7 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.

How 43.5% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half. Memphis played two, and they are left out. Indiana played none.

The Grizzlies went 13-27 at FedExForum, a 32.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Pacers went 8-33 on the road, an 80.5% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 56.5% for Memphis and 43.5% for Indiana.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +212 and -258 the pair comes to 104.1%. Taken out, the Pacers are 30.8% and the Grizzlies 69.2%. That is a market pricing Memphis as a strong home side. Last season’s numbers say it was a weak one.

None of the 2026-27 season is in our number. Memphis is 6-1, 2-1 at home, and lost 135-134 in overtime to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday 2 November. Indiana is 2-6, 2-2 on the road, and lost 108-104 to the Atlanta Hawks the same night. Seven games say little about a team. Still, the gap between that 6-1 and last season’s 25-57 is the main risk in this bet, and the method does not see it.

Memphis at home, Indiana on the road

At home the Grizzlies scored 115.8 points a game and allowed 119.8, a margin of -4.0. The Pacers on the road scored 111.0 and allowed 121.6, a margin of -10.6. Both halves are losing halves. Ours is a measure of which loses more often, and the answer is closer than -258 suggests.

The halves the method leaves out: Indiana at home went 11-30, scoring 113.8 and allowing 119.2. Memphis on the road went 11-29, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9.

The season around it

The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the West, scoring 114.7 a game and allowing 120.7, a point difference of -6.0 a game. They won 9 games by 10 or more and lost 32 by 10 or more. In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, they went 7-9. They missed the playoffs.

The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the East, scoring 112.4 and allowing 120.4, a difference of -8.0 a game. They won 7 games by 10 or more and lost 38 by that much. In close games they went 10-12. They missed the playoffs too.

Memphis won both meetings. In Memphis, the Grizzlies won 128-103 on Saturday 25 October 2025. That game is in our number: one of the Grizzlies’ 40 home games and one of the Pacers’ 41 road games. In Indiana, the Grizzlies won 125-106 on Sunday 1 March 2026. That one is in neither half.

Pick: Pacers +212

Bet the Pacers on the moneyline at +212. The gap is 12.7 points toward Indiana, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Pacers +212 and Grizzlies -258 on 4 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, Pacers +212 and Grizzlies -258. There has been no move since opening.

What kills the bet

A shorter Indiana price. At +160 or longer the Pacers are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at -258, they stay a bet down to +122.

For the Grizzlies to become the bet, they would have to be -106 or longer whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at +212, Memphis would have to drift to +194 or longer. Neither is close.

ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC, lists Ivica Zubac (ankle), Obi Toppin (back), T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Johnny Furphy (knee) out for Indiana, with Kelly Oubre Jr. (knee) day-to-day. For Memphis it lists Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) out and Quinten Post (ankle) day-to-day. Our method has no player adjustment, so the list does not change the number. Four Pacers out is a real cost that our rates cannot measure. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still has Indiana losing 56.5% of the time. The case is that +212 pays for a 30.8% chance, and last season’s evidence puts it at 43.5%.

The total and the spread

The total is 230.5, over -114 and under -106. The Grizzlies’ home games went over 230.5 in 25 of 40, a 62.5% rate, averaging 235.6 points. The Pacers’ road games went over in 21 of 41, 51.2%, averaging 232.6. Over the full season the counts were 48 of 82 for Memphis and 45 of 82 for Indiana.

The two venue rates average 56.9% for the over. With the margin removed, the over is priced at 50.9% and the under at 49.1%, so our count leans to the over by 6.0 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Grizzlies -6.5 at -106 and Pacers +6.5 at -114. It opened at 6.5 and has not moved. Memphis beat -6.5 in 9 of its 40 home games. Indiana beat +6.5 in 13 of its 41 road games. Averaged, Grizzlies -6.5 lands 45.4% of the time against 49.1% priced, a gap of 3.7 points toward Pacers +6.5. That is below the threshold and on the same side as the pick, so it is a lean only. One bet on this game: the Pacers at +212.

Pacers at Grizzlies, Wednesday 4 November, 8:00 PM ET, FedExForum, Memphis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4 November 2026, 00:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 4 November 2026, 00:32 UTC.