NBA
NBA · Wednesday 4 November
Bulls vs Knicks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Bulls on the moneyline. Our number gives Chicago 28.4% to win in New York, and the price gives them 17.0%.
For the Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks on Wednesday, DraftKings has the Bulls at +466 and the Knicks at -640. With the margin out, that is 17.0% for Chicago and 83.0% for New York. Our number is 71.6% for the Knicks and 28.4% for the Bulls, a gap of 11.4 points toward Chicago. We bet at 5.
How 71.6% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half. New York played one and Chicago none.
The Knicks went 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, a 75.0% home win rate over 40 games. The Bulls went 13-28 on the road, a 68.3% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 71.6% for New York and 28.4% for Chicago.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -640 and +466 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Knicks are 83.0% and the Bulls 17.0%.
This season so far
The 2026-27 records are outside the method. New York is 3-4, 2-2 at home, and beat the Brooklyn Nets 103-90 on Monday 2 November. Chicago is 1-6, 1-4 on the road, and lost 126-107 at the Philadelphia 76ers the same night.
Our number reads 2025-26 only, so none of those games is in it. Rosters change over a summer, and the number does not see that either. Seven games prove little on their own, but a 1-6 start is still the main risk in this bet.
New York at home, Chicago on the road
At home the Knicks scored 119.0 points a game and allowed 109.0, a margin of 10.0. The Bulls on the road scored 117.7 and allowed 124.4, a margin of -6.7.
The method leaves out two halves. New York on the road went 22-19, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0, a margin of 2.6. Chicago at home went 18-23, scoring 114.9 and allowing 118.6, a margin of -3.7. The method uses the Knicks’ better half, 30-10, and the Bulls’ worse one, 13-28.
The season around it
The Knicks finished 53-29 as the third seed in the Eastern Conference. They scored 116.5 a game and allowed 110.1, a difference of 6.4. They won 32 games by 10 or more and lost 19 by that margin. In the playoffs they won series 4-2 over the Atlanta Hawks, 4-0 over the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0 over the Cleveland Cavaliers and 4-1 over the San Antonio Spurs.
The Bulls finished 31-51, 12th in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 116.3 and allowed 121.5, a difference of -5.2 a game. They lost 33 games by 10 or more and won 13 by that margin.
Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, went 13-9 for Chicago and 11-5 for New York. Each team played 2 overtime games.
The Knicks won three of the four meetings. In New York they won 128-116 on 2 November 2025 and 136-96 on 3 April 2026. Both games are in our number: two of the Knicks’ 40 home games and two of the Bulls’ 41 road games. In Chicago the Bulls won 135-125 on 31 October 2025 and the Knicks won 105-99 on 22 February 2026. Those two games are in neither half.
Pick: Bulls +466
Bet the Bulls on the moneyline at +466. The gap is 11.4 points toward Chicago, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Bulls +466 and Knicks -640 on 3 November 2026 at 21:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same two prices. It has not moved.
What kills the bet
A shorter Chicago price ends the bet. At +327 or longer the Bulls are a bet whatever New York is priced at. With the Knicks at -640, they stay a bet down to +278.
For the Knicks to become the bet instead, they would have to drift to -199 or longer whatever the Bulls are priced at. Against Chicago at +466, they would have to reach +184. They are -640.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 3 November 2026 at 21:32 UTC, has Nic Claxton (hamstring) out and Jalen Smith (finger) day-to-day for Chicago. Nobody is listed for New York. Our method does not adjust for the list, so it does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still has Chicago losing 71.6% of the time. The bet is that +466 pays more than that risk is worth, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 232.5, with the over and the under both at -110. The Knicks’ home games went over 232.5 in 15 of 40, and the Bulls’ road games went over in 26 of 41. Across all 82 games, New York went over in 29 and Chicago in 46. Knicks home games averaged 228.0 points and Bulls road games 242.1.
Those two rates are 37.5% and 63.4%, which average to 50.5% for the over against 50.0% priced. A gap of 0.5 points is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
The spread is Knicks -12.5 at -110 and Bulls +12.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. New York beat that line in 15 of 40 home games. Chicago stayed within it in 27 of 41 road games. Averaged, Knicks -12.5 comes in 35.8% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 14.2 points toward Bulls +12.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean on the same side and not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Bulls at +466.
Bulls at Knicks, Wednesday 4 November, 7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden, New York. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 3 November 2026, 21:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 3 November 2026, 21:32 UTC.