NBA
NBA · Wednesday 4 November
Mavericks vs Spurs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Mavericks at +503. Our number gives Dallas on the road 22.5%; the price gives them 15.9%.
The Dallas Mavericks are +503 and the San Antonio Spurs -700 at DraftKings for Wednesday 4 November at Frost Bank Center. With the margin out, that is 15.9% for Dallas and 84.1% for San Antonio. Last season’s home and road records put Dallas 6.6 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.
How 22.5% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Each team played one, and both are left out.
The Spurs went 32-8 at Frost Bank Center, an 80.0% home win rate over 40 games. The Mavericks went 10-30 on the road and lost 30 of 40, a 75.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 77.5% for San Antonio and 22.5% for Dallas.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -700 and +503 the pair comes to 104.1%. With that taken out, the Spurs are 84.1% and the Mavericks 15.9%. Our 22.5% against the market’s 15.9% is the whole argument.
Each half rests on 40 games, a full season of one venue for each team. It is still one season, and the number does not see summer roster changes.
This season so far
None of this season is in our number. The Spurs are 5-2, 3-2 at home, and beat the Utah Jazz 119-97 on Monday 2 November. The Mavericks are 4-3, 2-1 on the road, and lost 115-100 to the Sacramento Kings the same night.
Records that short tell us nothing. We note them and do not use them.
San Antonio at home, Dallas on the road
At home the Spurs scored 120.5 points a game and allowed 111.9, a surplus of 8.6. The Mavericks on the road scored 112.0 and allowed 119.3, a deficit of 7.3. Those are the two halves the method reads.
The halves the method leaves out: Dallas at home went 16-25, scoring 116.3 and allowing 119.9. San Antonio on the road went 29-12, scoring 119.4 and allowing 111.2.
The season around it
The Spurs finished 62-20, the second seed in the Western Conference. They outscored opponents by 8.3 points a game. They won 43 games by 10 or more and lost 8 by that much. In the playoffs they beat the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 and the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the New York Knicks.
The Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the West, and missed the playoffs. They were outscored by 5.5 points a game, with 9 wins by 10 or more and 30 losses by that much.
In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, San Antonio went 13-10 and Dallas 8-10. The Spurs played 2 overtime games, the Mavericks 6.
The Spurs won all four meetings. In San Antonio they won 138-125 on 7 February 2026 and 139-120 on 10 April 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of the Spurs’ 40 home games and two of the Mavericks’ 40 road games. In Dallas, the Spurs won 125-92 on 22 October 2025 and 135-123 on 5 February 2026. Those are in neither half.
Pick: Mavericks +503
Bet the Mavericks on the moneyline at +503. The gap is 6.6 points toward Dallas, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Mavericks +503 and Spurs -700 on 3 November 2026 at 06:35 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. The edge clears the threshold, though not by much.
What kills the bet
A shorter Dallas price. At +470 or longer the Mavericks are a bet whatever San Antonio is priced at. With the Spurs at -700, Dallas stays a bet down to +437. Below that, pass.
For the Spurs to become the bet, they would have to drift to -264 or longer, whatever Dallas is priced at. They are -700.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 3 November 2026 at 06:35 UTC, has Kyrie Irving (knee) and Max Christie (hip) day-to-day for Dallas, and Santi Aldama (knee), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Dereck Lively II (foot) out. For San Antonio, Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) are out. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet, and check the price again against the thresholds above.
Our number still gives Dallas a 77.5% chance of losing. The case is that +503 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 229.5, over -110 and under -110. The Spurs’ home games went over 229.5 in 20 of 40, a 50.0% rate. The Mavericks’ road games went over in 21 of 40, a 52.5% rate. San Antonio’s home games averaged 232.4 points, Dallas’s road games 231.3.
That averages to 51.3% for the over, against 50.0% priced. The lean is 1.3 points to the over, well short of 5. Pass on the total. Across all 82 games, the Spurs went over 229.5 in 41 and the Mavericks in 46.
The spread is Spurs -12.5 at -110 and Mavericks +12.5 at -110. San Antonio beat that line in 17 of its 40 home games. Dallas stayed inside it in 27 of its 40 road games. Averaged, Spurs -12.5 lands 37.5% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 12.5 points toward Mavericks +12.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Mavericks at +503.
Mavericks at Spurs, Wednesday 4 November, 9:30 PM ET, Frost Bank Center, San Antonio. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 3 November 2026, 06:35 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 3 November 2026, 06:35 UTC.