NBA
NBA · Monday 2 November
Suns vs Warriors Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Suns at +150. Our number gives Phoenix on the road 47.6%; the price gives them 38.4%.
The Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, Monday 2 November at 10:00 PM ET, is priced Suns +150 and Warriors -180 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 38.4% for Phoenix and 61.6% for Golden State. Last season’s home and road records put Phoenix 9.2 points higher than that. We bet at 5.
How 52.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so nothing was left out of either half.
The Warriors went 22-19 at Chase Center, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Suns went 20-21 on the road, a 51.2% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 52.4% for Golden State and 47.6% for Phoenix.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At +150 and -180 the two prices come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Suns are 38.4% and the Warriors 61.6%. The market prices Golden State as a clear favourite. Last season’s split prices them as a near coin flip.
This season is outside the method. The Warriors are 3-3, 1-1 at home, and beat the Los Angeles Lakers 112-95 on Friday 30 October. The Suns are 1-3, 0-2 on the road, and lost 127-120 to the Denver Nuggets on Friday 30 October. Ten games between the two teams say nothing a rate can use, and our number reads 2025-26 only.
Golden State at home, Phoenix on the road
At home the Warriors scored 117.1 points a game and allowed 115.8, a surplus of 1.3. The Suns on the road scored 113.2 and allowed 113.8, a deficit of 0.6. Those are the two halves the number is built on.
The halves the method leaves out: Golden State on the road went 15-26, scoring 112.1 and allowing 114.5. Phoenix at home went 25-16, scoring 112.0 and allowing 108.4. Those two records lean further toward the Suns, but they are not in the number.
The season around it
The Warriors finished 37-45, the 10 seed in the West, with a point difference of -0.6 a game. They missed the playoffs. The Suns finished 45-37, the 8 seed, at +1.5 a game, and were swept 4-0 by the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Golden State went 10-13 and Phoenix 12-14. The Warriors played 5 overtime games, the Suns 2. Golden State won by 10 or more 20 times and lost by 10 or more 23 times. Phoenix won by 10 or more 25 times and lost by 10 or more 17 times.
The Warriors won three of the four meetings. In San Francisco, Golden State won 118-107 on 4 November 2025 and 119-116 on 20 December 2025. Those games are in our number: two of the Warriors’ 41 home games and two of the Suns’ 41 road games. In Phoenix, the Suns won 99-98 on 18 December 2025 and the Warriors won 101-97 on 5 February 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: Suns +150
Bet the Suns on the moneyline at +150. The gap is 9.2 points toward Phoenix, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Suns +150 and Warriors -180 on 2 November 2026 at 03:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so there has been no change since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Phoenix price. At +135 or longer the Suns are a bet whatever Golden State is priced at. With the Warriors at -180, they stay a bet down to +110.
For the Warriors to become the bet, they would need to be +111 or longer whatever the Suns’ price. Against the Suns at +150, the Warriors would need to be +177 or longer. Today they are -180.
ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026 at 03:31 UTC, lists five Warriors out: Stephen Curry (rest), Draymond Green (rest), Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Jimmy Butler III (knee) and Moses Moody (knee). For Phoenix it lists Mark Williams (shoulder) out. The list does not change our number. Two of the Golden State absences are marked rest, a status that can change before tip-off. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Phoenix a 52.4% chance of losing. The case is that +150 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 227.5, over -110 and under -110. The Warriors’ home games went over 227.5 in 27 of 41, a 65.9% rate. The Suns’ road games went over in 21 of 41, a 51.2% rate. Golden State’s home games averaged 232.9 points, Phoenix’s road games 227.0.
Averaged, the over lands 58.5% of the time against 50.0% priced, a lean of 8.5 points to the over. Over the whole season the Warriors’ games went over this line in 48 of 82 and the Suns’ in 35 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Warriors -4.5 at -110 and Suns +4.5 at -110, unchanged from opening. Golden State beat that line in 19 of 41 home games. Phoenix beat it in 27 of 41 road games. Averaged, Warriors -4.5 lands 40.2% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 9.8 points toward Suns +4.5. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Suns at +150.
Suns at Warriors, Monday 2 November, 10:00 PM ET, Chase Center, San Francisco. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2 November 2026, 03:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026, 03:31 UTC.