NBA
NBA · Monday 2 November
Kings vs Mavericks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Kings at +310. Our number gives Sacramento in Dallas 39.0%; the price gives them 23.4%.
The Sacramento Kings are +310 and the Dallas Mavericks -395 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 23.4% for Sacramento and 76.6% for Dallas. Our Kings vs Mavericks prediction puts Sacramento 15.6 points higher than that, on last season’s home and road records. We bet at 5.
How 39.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Dallas played one, Sacramento none.
The Mavericks went 16-25 at American Airlines Center, a 39.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Kings went 7-34 on the road, an 82.9% road loss rate. The midpoint is 61.0% for Dallas and 39.0% for Sacramento.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -395 and +310 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Mavericks are 76.6% and the Kings 23.4%.
The 2026-27 season is six games old for both teams, and none of it is in our number. Dallas is 4-2, 2-1 at home, and beat the Houston Rockets 116-111 on Friday 30 October. Sacramento is 0-6, 0-4 on the road, and lost 136-105 at the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday 31 October. Six games is too few to measure anything. Rosters also change over a summer, and the number does not see that. Those two facts are the main risk in this bet.
Dallas at home, Sacramento on the road
At home the Mavericks scored 116.3 points a game and allowed 119.9, a deficit of 3.6. The Kings on the road scored 109.4 and allowed 122.2, a deficit of 12.8. On points, Sacramento’s road half is the weaker of the two. The method counts wins, and Dallas won 39.0% of its home games, so the price is asking a 16-25 home team to win 76.6% of the time.
The halves the method leaves out: Dallas on the road went 10-30, scoring 112.0 and allowing 119.3. Sacramento at home went 15-26, scoring 112.6 and allowing 119.8.
The season around it
Over the full 2025-26 season the Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the West, and were outscored by 5.5 points a game. The Kings finished 22-60, 14th, and were outscored by 10.0 a game. Neither team made the playoffs.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Dallas went 8-10 and Sacramento 10-11. The Mavericks won by 10 or more 9 times and lost by 10 or more 30 times. The Kings won by 10 or more 6 times and lost by 10 or more 40 times. Dallas played 6 overtime games, Sacramento 3.
The Kings won two of the three meetings. In Dallas, the Kings won 130-121 on Thursday 26 February 2026; that game is in our number, one of the Mavericks’ 41 home games and one of the Kings’ 41 road games. In Sacramento, the Kings won 113-107 on Saturday 27 December 2025 and the Mavericks won 100-98 on Tuesday 6 January 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: Kings +310
Bet the Kings on the moneyline at +310. The gap is 15.6 points toward Sacramento, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Kings +310 and Mavericks -395 on 2 November 2026 at 02:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, Kings +310 and Mavericks -395, so it has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Sacramento price. At +194 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever Dallas is priced at. With the Mavericks at -395, the Kings stay a bet down to +143.
For the Mavericks to become the bet, Dallas would have to drift to -127 or longer, whatever the Kings’ price. With the Kings at +310, it would take the Mavericks at +222 or longer. The price is -395.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 2 November 2026 at 02:31 UTC, has Dylan Cardwell (calf), Maxime Raynaud (knee), Keegan Murray (ankle) and Ben Simmons (Achilles) out for Sacramento, with Zach LaVine (elbow) day-to-day. For Dallas it has Tarik Biberovic (heel), Dereck Lively II (foot), Santi Aldama (knee) and Sergio de Larrea (knee) out, with Kyrie Irving (knee) day-to-day. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Sacramento a 61.0% chance of losing. The case is that +310 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 234.5, over -110 and under -110. The Mavericks’ home games went over 234.5 in 18 of 41, and the Kings’ road games in 17 of 41. Dallas’s home games averaged 236.2 points, Sacramento’s road games 231.6.
That is 43.9% and 41.5%, an average of 42.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.0%, so our count leans to the under by 7.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Mavericks -9.5 at -110 and Kings +9.5 at -110, unchanged from the opening -9.5. Dallas won at home by 10 or more in 6 of 41. Sacramento on the road won, or lost by 9 or fewer, in 17 of 41. Averaged, Mavericks -9.5 lands 36.6% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 13.4 points toward Kings +9.5. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Kings at +310.
Kings at Mavericks, Monday 2 November, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2 November 2026, 02:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026, 02:31 UTC.