Pelicans vs Grizzlies Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Pelicans at +185. Our number gives New Orleans on the road 44.7%; the price gives them 33.6%.

The New Orleans Pelicans are +185 and the Memphis Grizzlies -225 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 33.6% for New Orleans and 66.4% for Memphis. Last season’s home and road records put New Orleans 11.1 points higher than that. We bet at 5.

How 55.3% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two, New Orleans none.

The Grizzlies went 13-27 at FedExForum, a 32.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Pelicans went 9-32 on the road, a 78.0% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 55.3% for Memphis and 44.7% for New Orleans.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +185 and -225 the pair comes to 104.3%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 33.6% and the Grizzlies 66.4%. Our 44.7% against the market’s 33.6% is the whole argument.

This season has started unevenly, and none of it is in our number. Memphis is 6-0, 2-0 at home, and beat the Sacramento Kings 136-105 on Saturday 31 October. New Orleans is 2-4, 0-2 on the road, and beat the Atlanta Hawks 121-99 the same night. Six games tell us little. They are still the main risk in this bet, because our number reads 2025-26 only and does not see a summer of roster changes.

Memphis at home, New Orleans on the road

At home the Grizzlies scored 115.8 points a game and allowed 119.8, a deficit of 4.0. The Pelicans on the road scored 112.9 and allowed 120.5, a deficit of 7.6. Both halves of the method describe a losing team. The price treats only one of them as one.

The halves the method leaves out: New Orleans at home went 17-24, a 41.5% rate, scoring 118.2 and allowing 119.5. Memphis on the road went 11-29, a 27.5% rate, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9.

The season around it

Over the full 2025-26 season, the Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the West, scoring 114.7 a game and allowing 120.7, a difference of -6.0. The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0, a difference of -4.5. Neither team made the playoffs.

Memphis lost 32 games by 10 or more and won 9 by that much. New Orleans lost 25 by 10 or more and won 15. In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, the Grizzlies went 7-9 and the Pelicans 6-13. New Orleans played 5 overtime games, Memphis 2.

The teams split four games. In Memphis, the Grizzlies won 128-122 on Wednesday 22 October 2025 and the Pelicans won 133-127 on Friday 23 January 2026; those two are in our number. In New Orleans, the Grizzlies won 133-128 in overtime on Wednesday 26 November 2025 and the Pelicans won 114-106 on Friday 30 January 2026; those are in neither half.

Pick: Pelicans +185

Bet the Pelicans on the moneyline at +185. The gap is 11.1 points toward New Orleans, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Pelicans +185 and Grizzlies -225 on 2 November 2026 at 00:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Pelicans +205 and Grizzlies -250. Since the open the market has moved toward New Orleans: it gives the Pelicans 33.6% now against 31.5% at the open, 2.2 points more.

What kills the bet

A shorter New Orleans price. At +152 or longer the Pelicans are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at -225, they stay a bet down to +119. Below that, pass.

For the Grizzlies to become the bet, the market would have to stop treating them as favourites. They are a bet at -101 or longer whatever New Orleans is priced at, or at +182 or longer against the current Pelicans price. They are -225.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 2 November 2026 at 00:31 UTC, has Jordan Poole (ankle) and Yves Missi (knee) out and Trey Murphy III (knee) day-to-day for New Orleans. It has Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Quinten Post (ankle) day-to-day for Memphis. None of these absences re-runs our number, so the list does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives New Orleans a 55.3% chance of losing. The case is that +185 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 235.5, over -110 and under -110. The Grizzlies’ home games went over 235.5 in 20 of 40, a 50.0% rate. The Pelicans’ road games went over in 19 of 41, a 46.3% rate. Memphis home games averaged 235.6 points and New Orleans road games 233.4.

Averaged, the over lands 48.2% of the time against 50.0% priced, a lean of 1.8 points to the under. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

The spread is Grizzlies -6.5 at -110 and Pelicans +6.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Memphis won by 7 or more in 9 of its 40 home games. New Orleans won, or lost by 6 or fewer, in 18 of its 41 road games. Averaged, Grizzlies -6.5 lands 39.3% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 10.7 points toward Pelicans +6.5. That points the same way as the moneyline, so it is a lean on the same side and not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Pelicans at +185.

Pelicans at Grizzlies, Monday 2 November, 8:00 PM ET, FedExForum, Memphis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2 November 2026, 00:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 2 November 2026, 00:31 UTC.