Bulls vs Timberwolves Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Timberwolves on the moneyline. Our rating gives Minnesota at home 93.8%; the price gives 85.9%.

The Chicago Bulls are +580 and the Minnesota Timberwolves -840 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 14.1% for Chicago and 85.9% for Minnesota. Our number puts the Timberwolves 7.9 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.

How 93.8% is reached

Our number comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating up after a win and down after a loss. A wide margin moves it more, and so does a result against a strong opponent. The rating moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.

Minnesota’s rating is 1673.3, fifth of 30. Chicago’s is 1302.7, 27th of 30. The league average is 1500. With the home edge added, the rating gives the Timberwolves 93.8% and the Bulls 6.2%. It was built at 03:34 UTC on 14 November 2026 and counts 12 Timberwolves games and 10 Bulls games from this season.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -840 and +580 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, Minnesota is 85.9% and Chicago 14.1%.

The rule has a second half. We never bet a side the market gives less than 40%, because on underdogs our number did not beat the price over the two seasons it was tested on. That rule does not touch this game, since the bet is on the favourite.

This season so far

Minnesota is 9-3, 5-1 at Target Center and 5-2 against the West. Its last game was a 133-94 win over the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday 12 November. Chicago is 2-9, 1-5 on the road and 2-8 against the East. It beat the Atlanta Hawks 125-117 in overtime on Friday 13 November, the night before this game.

These results are inside the rating. The rating counts 10 Bulls games this season, and their record is 2-9.

For reference only: averaging last season’s Minnesota home win rate with Chicago’s road loss rate gives the Timberwolves 65.9%. That is the old method, and it is no longer the number the call uses. The gap between 65.9% and 93.8% is this season’s form: a 9-3 start against a 2-9 one.

Minnesota at home, Chicago on the road

Last season the Timberwolves went 26-15 at home, a 63.4% win rate. They scored 114.8 points a game there and allowed 111.1, a margin of 3.7. The Bulls went 13-28 on the road and lost 68.3% of those games. They scored 117.7 and allowed 124.4, a margin of -6.7. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so every game is in one split or the other.

The other halves: Minnesota went 23-18 on the road, scoring 121.2 and allowing 118.2. Chicago went 18-23 at home, scoring 114.9 and allowing 118.6.

The season around it

The Timberwolves finished 2025-26 at 49-33, sixth in the West, with a point difference of 3.4 a game. They won by 10 or more 28 times and lost by 10 or more 18 times. In games decided by 5 or fewer they were 11-12, with 4 overtime games. They beat the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the playoffs, then lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-2.

The Bulls finished 31-51, 12th in the East, at -5.2 a game. They lost by 10 or more 33 times and won by that much 13 times. In close games they were 13-9, with 2 overtime games. They missed the playoffs.

The teams split two meetings. In Chicago on Monday 29 December 2025, Minnesota won 136-101. In Minneapolis on Thursday 22 January 2026, Chicago won 120-115. Both games are in the rating, which reads every game since the start of 2025-26.

Pick: Timberwolves -840

Bet the Timberwolves on the moneyline at -840. The gap is 7.9 points toward Minnesota, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Timberwolves -840 and Bulls +580 on 14 November 2026 at 06:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Minnesota price. With the Bulls at +580, the Timberwolves stay a bet down to -2000. At -796 or longer they are a bet whatever Chicago is priced at.

Chicago cannot become the bet while the market gives it under 40% with the margin out, which is a price of about +150 or longer. The market gives the Bulls 14.1%.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 14 November 2026 at 06:31 UTC, has Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) out for Minnesota. For Chicago it has Dailyn Swain (back), Tobe Awaka (back) and Caleb Wilson (hand) out, and Jalen Smith (hand) day-to-day. The rating is built from results and does not read the list, so the list does not change the number. In our view Edwards being out is the largest risk to this bet. Check the lineups before you bet.

At -840 the bet wins small and loses big. Our number still gives Chicago a 6.2% chance. The case is that the price charges for 14.1%.

The total and the spread

The total is 236.5, over -108 and under -112. Last season the Timberwolves’ home games went over 236.5 in 8 of 41, a 19.5% rate. The Bulls’ road games went over in 23 of 41, a 56.1% rate. Minnesota’s home games averaged 225.9 points; Chicago’s road games averaged 242.1. Over the full season the over landed in 30 of 82 Minnesota games and 40 of 82 Chicago games.

The two venue rates average 37.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so the count leans to the under by 11.8 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Timberwolves -14.5 at -105 and Bulls +14.5 at -115, unchanged from the open. Against a 14.5-point line last season, Minnesota beat it in 7 of 41 home games and Chicago beat it in 29 of 41 road games. That count gives the Timberwolves 23.2% to cover against 48.9% priced, a gap of 25.7 points toward the Bulls. It is a count of last season’s records, the same evidence the call no longer uses, and it is not a bet. One bet on this game: the Timberwolves at -840.

Bulls at Timberwolves, Saturday 14 November, 8:00 PM ET, Target Center, Minneapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 06:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Ratings built 14 November 2026, 03:34 UTC. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 14 November 2026, 06:31 UTC.