Nuggets vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on New Orleans. Our number gives the Pelicans 25.6% at home and the price gives them 18.6%, but we never back a side the market puts under 40%.

DraftKings has the Denver Nuggets at -556 and the New Orleans Pelicans at +417. With the margin out, that is 81.4% for Denver and 18.6% for New Orleans. Our number is 25.6% for the Pelicans, 7.0 points above the market. The gap clears our threshold of 5, and the long-shot rule overrides it.

How 25.6% is reached

Our number comes from a team rating, not from last season’s records. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating: up after a win, down after a loss. A wide margin moves it more, and so does a strong opponent. The rating moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.

The average rating is 1500. Denver sits at 1594.3, 9th of 30. New Orleans sits at 1308.6, 26th of 30. The ratings were built at 03:34 UTC on 14 November 2026, and they count 12 Pelicans games and 9 Nuggets games from this season. With the home edge added, the rating gives New Orleans 25.6% and Denver 74.4%.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -556 and +417 the pair adds to 104.1%. Taken out, the prices leave Denver 81.4% and New Orleans 18.6%.

The 7.0-point gap points at the Pelicans, and that is where the rule applies. On underdogs, our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. So we do not trust a gap on any side the market gives under 40%, a price of about +150 or longer. At +417, New Orleans is far past that line.

This season so far

The Pelicans are 4-9, 3-5 at home and 3-7 against the West. They lost 142-111 at home to the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday 13 November. The Nuggets are 6-4, 3-2 on the road and 4-4 against the West. They won 123-118 at Memphis on Wednesday 11 November.

This season’s results feed the rating. The rating does not see who is playing. Five Pelicans are on ESPN’s injury list, and Trey Murphy III and Dejounte Murray are two of them. The number does not adjust for that, and it does not adjust for roster changes over the summer.

New Orleans at home, Denver on the road

In 2025-26 the Pelicans went 17-24 at Smoothie King Center. They scored 118.2 points a game there and allowed 119.5, a margin of -1.3. The Nuggets went 26-15 on the road, scoring 123.3 and allowing 118.6, a margin of 4.7. Neither team played a neutral-site game.

Averaging last season’s Pelicans home win rate with the Nuggets’ road loss rate gives 39.0% for New Orleans. That was our old method. It is shown here for context and is not the number this call uses.

The halves those records leave out: Denver at home went 28-13, scoring 120.8 and allowing 115.2. New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5, a margin of -7.6.

The season around it

The Nuggets finished 2025-26 at 54-28, third in the West, with a point difference of 5.2 a game. They won 28 games by 10 or more and lost 9 that way. They went 15-13 in games decided by 5 points or fewer and played 9 overtimes. Minnesota beat them 4-2 in the playoffs.

The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th in the West, at -4.5 a game. They won 15 games by 10 or more and lost 25 that way. They were 6-13 in close games, played 5 overtimes and missed the playoffs.

Denver won all three meetings last season. The Nuggets won 122-88 in Denver on 29 October 2025. They won 125-118 in New Orleans on 19 November 2025 and 122-116 there on 13 January 2026. All three are inside our number, because the rating counts every game since the start of 2025-26.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. Our number is 7.0 points toward the Pelicans against a threshold of 5. The market gives New Orleans 18.6%, under our 40% floor, so the gap does not count.

The line read Nuggets -556 and Pelicans +417 at DraftKings via ESPN, 14 November 2026 at 05:31 UTC. It opened at the same prices and has not moved.

The price on Denver is about right. At 81.4% the market sits above our 74.4%, so it asks too much for the Nuggets, and the Pelicans’ side is closed by rule.

What kills the bet

New Orleans cannot become a bet at any price while the market gives them under 40%, about +150 or longer. A price that short would put the Pelicans back inside the range where our number is trusted.

Denver becomes the bet at -227 or longer, whatever New Orleans is priced at. Against the Pelicans’ current +417, the Nuggets would need to reach +128 or longer.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 14 November 2026 at 05:31 UTC, has Dejounte Murray (ankle), Bryce McGowens (elbow), Yves Missi (knee), Trey Murphy III (knee) and Trendon Watford (ankle) out for New Orleans. Julian Strawther (knee) is out for Denver. The list does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 234.5, over -110 and under -110. Last season the Pelicans’ home games went over 234.5 in 21 of 41, a 51.2% rate, and averaged 237.7 points. The Nuggets’ road games went over in 30 of 41, a 73.2% rate, and averaged 241.9. Over the full season, New Orleans games went over in 41 of 82 and Denver games in 51 of 82.

The two venue rates average 62.2% for the over. The market prices it at 50.0%, so our count leans to the over by 12.2 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Pelicans +10.5 at -105 and Nuggets -10.5 at -115, unchanged from the opening line. Last season the Pelicans beat a 10.5-point line in 32 of 41 home games. The Nuggets beat it in 10 of 41 road games. Together that gives Pelicans +10.5 a 76.8% rate against 48.9% priced, a gap of 27.9 points. It is a count from last season and a lean only. This game carries no bet: the number favours New Orleans, and the price is too long to trust it.

Nuggets at Pelicans, Saturday 14 November, 7:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 05:31 UTC. Ratings built 14 November 2026, 03:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 14 November 2026, 05:31 UTC.