Nets vs Grizzlies Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the Grizzlies to win. Our rating gives Memphis 73.4% at home; the price gives them 63.5%.

The Brooklyn Nets are +163 and the Memphis Grizzlies -195 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 36.5% for Brooklyn and 63.5% for Memphis. Our number puts Memphis 9.9 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.

How 73.4% is reached

Our number comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating: up after a win, down after a loss, more for a wide margin and more against a strong opponent. It moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.

The Grizzlies are rated 1443.9, 20th of 30. The Nets are rated 1367.4, 24th of 30. The league average is 1500, so both sit below it. Each team has 11 games from this season in its rating, which was built on 14 November 2026 at 03:34 UTC. With Memphis’s home edge added, the rating gives the Grizzlies 73.4% and the Nets 26.6%.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -195 and +163 the two prices come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Grizzlies are 63.5% and the Nets 36.5%.

Last season’s home and road records, the number this page used to rest on, would give Memphis 56.5%. That figure is here for reference only. The rating replaced it because it reads this season’s games as well as last season’s.

This season so far

Memphis is 8-4, 2-4 at FedExForum and 7-3 against the West. The Grizzlies won 142-111 at the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday 13 November, the night before this game. Brooklyn is 3-8, 2-5 on the road and 2-7 against the East, and won 145-111 at New Orleans on Wednesday 11 November.

The rating counts results and margins. It does not see rest, travel or who played. A second game on consecutive nights for Memphis sits outside the method.

Memphis at home, Brooklyn on the road

Last season’s games feed the rating, but home and road splits are not how our number is made. They are context. At home in 2025-26 the Grizzlies went 13-27, scoring 115.8 points a game and allowing 119.8, a margin of -4.0. The Nets on the road went 8-33, scoring 103.5 and allowing 116.8, a margin of -13.3.

The other halves: Memphis on the road went 11-29, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9. Brooklyn at home went 12-29, scoring 108.4 and allowing 115.0. The Grizzlies’ splits leave out two games at a neutral site; the Nets played none.

The season around it

The Grizzlies finished 2025-26 at 25-57, 13th in the Western Conference, and missed the playoffs. They scored 114.7 a game and allowed 120.7, a difference of -6.0. They won 9 games by 10 or more and lost 32 by that much.

The Nets finished 20-62, 13th in the Eastern Conference, and also missed the playoffs. They scored 105.9 and allowed 115.9, a difference of -10.0. They won 12 games by 10 or more and lost 43. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Brooklyn went 2-12 and Memphis 7-9. Fourteen close games is too few to call either record a trait.

The teams split two meetings. The Grizzlies won 103-98 in Memphis on Sunday 11 January 2026. The Nets won 126-115 in Brooklyn on Monday 9 March 2026. Both games are in the rating, since it reads every game from the start of 2025-26.

Pick: Grizzlies -195

Bet the Grizzlies on the moneyline at -195. The gap is 9.9 points toward Memphis, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Grizzlies -195 and Nets +163 on 14 November 2026 at 05:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved since opening.

What kills the bet

A shorter Memphis price. At -216 or longer the Grizzlies are a bet whatever Brooklyn is priced at. With the Nets held at +163, Memphis stays a bet down to -471.

The Nets do not become the bet at any price on this board. Our method never backs a side the market gives under 40% with the margin out, roughly +150 or longer, however wide the gap. On underdogs our number did not beat the price over the two seasons it was tested on. Brooklyn is at 36.5%.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 14 November 2026 at 05:31 UTC, has four Memphis players out: Zach Edey (ankle), Quinten Post (concussion), Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Richie Saunders (knee). For Brooklyn, Mikel Brown Jr. (illness) and Nolan Traore (calf) are day-to-day. The rating is built from results, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Brooklyn a 26.6% chance. The case is that -195 charges less for Memphis than the rating says the win is worth.

The total and the spread

The total is 225.5, over -110 and under -110. Last season the Grizzlies’ home games went over 225.5 in 29 of 40, a 72.5% rate, and averaged 235.6 points. The Nets’ road games went over in 15 of 41, 36.6%, and averaged 220.3. Across all 82 games, Memphis went over 60 times and Brooklyn 36.

That count gives the over 54.5% against 50.0% priced, a gap of 4.5 points. It is under the threshold of 5. No bet on the total.

The spread is Grizzlies -5.5 at -110 and Nets +5.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Last season Memphis beat that line in 10 of 40 home games, and Brooklyn beat it in 14 of 41 road games. The count gives Memphis -5.5 a 45.4% chance against 50.0% priced, 4.6 points toward the Nets. That is a count of last season’s records, under the threshold and outside the method, so it carries no stake. Our method stakes the moneyline, and there is one bet on this game: the Grizzlies at -195.

Nets at Grizzlies, Saturday 14 November, 8:00 PM ET, FedExForum, Memphis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 05:31 UTC. Ratings built 14 November 2026, 03:34 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 14 November 2026, 05:31 UTC.