NBA
NBA · Friday 13 November
Trail Blazers vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Kings. Our number gives Sacramento 22.9%, the price gives them 18.3%, and that 4.6-point gap falls short of our 5-point bar.
The Portland Trail Blazers are -569 and the Sacramento Kings +426 at DraftKings for Friday’s game at Golden 1 Center. With the margin out, that is 81.7% for Portland and 18.3% for Sacramento. Our prediction puts the Kings 4.6 points higher than the market. We bet at 5, and never on a side the market rates under 40%. This side fails both tests.
How 22.9% is reached
Our number comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating: up after a win, down after a loss, further for a wide margin and further against a strong opponent. The rating moves fast enough that a change in form shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.
The league average is 1500. Portland sits at 1608.8, 8th of 30. Sacramento sits at 1298.0, 28th of 30. The ratings were built on 12 November 2026 at 23:33 UTC and hold 11 games of this season for each team. With the home edge added, the model gives the Kings 22.9% and the Trail Blazers 77.1%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At +426 and -569 the pair adds to 104.1%. Taken out, the market reads 18.3% for Sacramento and 81.7% for Portland.
The second rule decides this game even before the gap does. On underdogs, our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. So no side the market gives less than 40% is ever a bet, whatever the gap. At 18.3%, the Kings are far below that line.
This season so far
Sacramento is 1-10, 0-6 at home and 1-8 against the West. The Kings lost 107-100 to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday 10 November. Portland is 8-3, 5-1 on the road and 8-3 against the West, and beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-108 on Wednesday 11 November.
These games are inside our number. The rating holds 11 games of 2026-27 for each team, so a 1-10 start is already part of Sacramento’s 1298.0. That is why our number sits far below last season’s home and road records, which gave Sacramento 46.3%. That figure is context only. It no longer drives the call.
Sacramento at home, Portland on the road
Last season the Kings went 15-26 at Golden 1 Center, a 36.6% home win rate over 41 games. They scored 112.6 points a game and allowed 119.8, a margin of -7.2. The Trail Blazers went 18-23 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate, scoring 112.7 and allowing 116.8, a margin of -4.1.
The other halves are wider apart. Portland went 24-17 at home, scoring 118.3 and allowing 114.8. Sacramento went 7-34 on the road, scoring 109.4 and allowing 122.2. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so every game sits in one half or the other.
The season around it
Sacramento finished 2025-26 at 22-60, the 14th seed in the West, and missed the playoffs. The Kings scored 111.0 a game and allowed 121.0, a deficit of 10.0. They won 6 games by 10 or more and lost 40 by 10 or more. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 10-11, with 3 overtime games.
Portland finished 42-40, the 7th seed, and lost its playoff series to the San Antonio Spurs 4-1. The Trail Blazers scored 115.5 and allowed 115.8, a deficit of 0.3 a game. They won 23 by 10 or more, lost 18 by 10 or more, and went 11-12 in close games, with 3 overtime games.
Portland won all four meetings. In Portland, the Trail Blazers won 134-133 in overtime on 18 December 2025 and 122-110 on 12 April 2026. In Sacramento, they won 98-93 on 20 December 2025 and 117-110 on 18 January 2026. The rating reads every game since the start of 2025-26, so all four are in our number.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 4.6 points toward the Kings, against a threshold of 5. Sacramento is also priced at 18.3%, under the 40% floor below which we never bet.
The line read Trail Blazers -569 and Kings +426 on 13 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.
At these prices the market is right enough. Our number agrees that Portland wins this game about three times in four. The 4.6 points we see on Sacramento’s side would be thin even on a favourite, and the long-shot rule exists because our number has not beaten the price on underdogs.
What kills the bet
There is no Kings price that makes Sacramento a bet. Any side the market rates under 40% with the margin out, about +150 or longer, stays no bet however wide the gap.
Portland becomes the bet at -259 or longer whatever Sacramento is priced at. Against the current Kings price of +426, Portland would need to reach +104. The Trail Blazers sit at -569.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 13 November 2026 at 00:32 UTC, has Maxime Raynaud (knee) and Ben Simmons (Achilles) out and Precious Achiuwa (ankle) day-to-day for Sacramento. For Portland it has Ja Morant (hamstring), Shaedon Sharpe (knee) and Vit Krejci (ankle) out and Chris Youngblood (foot) day-to-day. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 229.5, over -110 and under -110. Last season the Kings’ home games went over 229.5 in 23 of 41, a 56.1% rate, and averaged 232.4 points. The Trail Blazers’ road games went over in 20 of 41, 48.8%, and averaged 229.5. Across all 82 games, Sacramento’s went over 46 times and Portland’s 45.
Averaged, the over lands 52.4% against 50.0% priced, a lean of 2.4 points. That is under our bar, so we pass on the total too.
The spread is Kings +10.5 at -110 and Trail Blazers -10.5 at -110, unchanged since it opened. Last season Sacramento beat this line in 26 of 41 home games, and Portland beat it in 7 of 41 road games. Averaged, Kings +10.5 covers 73.2% against 50.0% priced, a gap of 23.2 points. It is a count of last season against this line, outside the rating, and our method stakes the moneyline only. It is a lean on the Kings side, the same direction as our number, and not a bet. On this game the call is no bet.
Trail Blazers at Kings, Friday 13 November, 10:00 PM ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 13 November 2026, 00:32 UTC. Ratings: built 12 November 2026, 23:33 UTC, from every game since the start of 2025-26. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 13 November 2026, 00:32 UTC.