NBA
NBA · Saturday 14 November
Mavericks vs Cavaliers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take Cleveland on the moneyline. Our rating gives the Cavaliers 77.7% at home; the price gives them 56.0%.
The Dallas Mavericks are +118 and the Cleveland Cavaliers -140 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 44.0% for Dallas and 56.0% for Cleveland. Our number puts Cleveland 21.7 points higher. We bet at 5.
How 77.7% is reached
Our number comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating up after a win and down after a loss, further for a wide margin and further against a strong opponent. It moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games.
An average team sits at 1500. The Cavaliers are rated 1566.3, 13th of 30. The Mavericks are rated 1449.3, 19th of 30. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points. Put together, the rating gives Cleveland a 77.7% chance and Dallas 22.3%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -140 and +118 the pair comes to 104.2%. Taken out, the Cavaliers are 56.0% and the Mavericks 44.0%. That leaves a gap of 21.7 points toward Cleveland.
Two rules turn the gap into a bet. A side is a bet when our chance and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. A side the market gives less than 40% is never a bet, however wide the gap, because on underdogs our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. Cleveland at 56.0% clears both.
This season so far
Cleveland is 6-7, 4-2 at home, and lost its last game 133-121 at the Miami Heat on Friday 13 November. Dallas is 7-5, 2-3 on the road, and lost 133-94 at the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday 12 November.
The records go into the rating only through the results behind them. The rating, built 14 November at 03:34 UTC, counts 12 games this season for each team. It does not see lineups, so who is in or out tonight is outside the method.
Cleveland at home, Dallas on the road
Last season the Cavaliers went 27-14 at home, scoring 119.2 points a game and allowing 114.6, a surplus of 4.6. The Mavericks went 10-30 on the road, scoring 112.0 and allowing 119.3, a deficit of 7.3. Dallas played one game at a neutral site, which is in neither split; Cleveland played none.
The halves that matter less tonight: Dallas at home went 16-25, scoring 116.3 and allowing 119.9. Cleveland on the road went 25-16, scoring 119.9 and allowing 116.2.
An older version of our method averaged the home team’s home win rate and the visitor’s road loss rate. On these records it gives Cleveland 70.4%. That figure is context only. The call uses the rating.
The season around it
The Cavaliers finished 2025-26 at 52-30, the fourth seed in the East, and outscored opponents by 4.1 points a game. They won by 10 or more 27 times, lost by 10 or more 17 times, went 13-7 in games decided by 5 points or fewer and played 3 in overtime. In the playoffs they beat the Toronto Raptors 4-3 and the Detroit Pistons 4-3, then lost to the New York Knicks 4-0.
The Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the West, and missed the playoffs. They were outscored by 5.5 points a game. They won by 10 or more 9 times and lost by 10 or more 30 times. In close games they went 8-10, with 6 in overtime.
The teams split two games last season. In Dallas on 13 March 2026, the Cavaliers won 138-105. In Cleveland on 15 March 2026, the Mavericks won 130-120. Both games are in the rating, as is every game since the start of 2025-26.
Pick: Cavaliers -140
Bet the Cavaliers on the moneyline at -140. The gap is 21.7 points toward Cleveland, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Cavaliers -140 and Mavericks +118 on 14 November 2026 at 05:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Cleveland price. At -266 or longer the Cavaliers are a bet whatever Dallas is priced at. With Dallas held at +118, they stay a bet down to -2000.
The Mavericks cannot become the bet on our number at any price. Before the gap turns their way, the market’s chance for them falls under 40%, about +150 or longer, and the long-shot rule makes that no bet.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 14 November 2026 at 05:31 UTC, has Evan Mobley (toe), Sam Merrill (elbow) and Nae’Qwan Tomlin (back) out for Cleveland. For Dallas it has Dereck Lively II (foot), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio de Larrea (knee) out, and Max Christie (ankle) and Morez Johnson Jr. (lower leg) day-to-day. The rating reads results, not lineups, so Mobley’s absence is not in the 77.7%. That is the largest risk in this bet. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 231.5, over -110 and under -110. Last season the Cavaliers’ home games went over 231.5 in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate, and averaged 233.8 points. The Mavericks’ road games went over in 19 of 40, 47.5%, and averaged 231.3.
That count gives the over 48.1%. The market prices it at 50.0%, so the count leans to the under by 1.9 points. That is under the threshold of 5: pass on the total.
The spread is Cavaliers -3.5 at -105 and Mavericks +3.5 at -115, unchanged since opening. Last season Cleveland won by 4 or more in 27 of 41 home games. Dallas won, or lost by 3 or fewer, in 13 of 40 road games. Counted together, Cavaliers -3.5 lands 66.7% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 17.8 points. It is the same side as the pick, and a lean only, since our method stakes the moneyline. One bet on this game: the Cavaliers at -140.
Mavericks at Cavaliers, Saturday 14 November, 7:30 PM ET, Rocket Arena, Cleveland. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 14 November 2026, 05:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Ratings built 14 November 2026, 03:34 UTC. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 14 November 2026, 05:31 UTC.