Mavericks vs Timberwolves Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the Timberwolves to win. Our number gives Minnesota at home 69.2%; the price gives them 63.6%.

The Dallas Mavericks are +164 and the Minnesota Timberwolves -196 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 36.4% for Dallas and 63.6% for Minnesota. Last season’s home and road records put Minnesota 5.6 points higher than that. We bet at 5.

How 69.2% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Dallas played one and Minnesota none.

The Timberwolves went 26-15 at Target Center, a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Mavericks went 10-30 on the road, a 75.0% road loss rate over 40 games. The midpoint is 69.2% for Minnesota and 30.8% for Dallas.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -196 and +164 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Timberwolves are 63.6% and the Mavericks 36.4%.

This season so far

Minnesota is 8-3 in 2026-27, 4-1 at home and 4-2 against the West. It last played on Sunday 8 November and beat the Utah Jazz 115-100. Dallas is 7-4, 2-2 on the road and 3-4 against the West. It last played on Monday 9 November and beat the Indiana Pacers 125-122.

None of that is in our number, which reads 2025-26 only. ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026 at 01:32 UTC, lists Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) out for Minnesota. Our number does not adjust for who is missing tonight, so their absence is not in it. That is the main risk in this bet.

Minnesota at home, Dallas on the road

At home the Timberwolves scored 114.8 points a game and allowed 111.1, a margin of 3.7. On the road the Mavericks scored 112.0 and allowed 119.3, a margin of -7.3. These are the two halves our number uses.

The method leaves out the other halves. Minnesota on the road went 23-18, scoring 121.2 and allowing 118.2, a margin of 3.0. Dallas at home went 16-25, scoring 116.3 and allowing 119.9, a margin of -3.6.

The season around it

The Timberwolves finished 2025-26 at 49-33, the sixth seed in the West. They scored 118.0 a game and allowed 114.6, a difference of 3.4. They won 28 games by 10 or more, lost 18 by that much, went 11-12 in games decided by 5 or fewer and played 4 overtime games. In the playoffs they beat the Denver Nuggets 4-2, then lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-2.

The Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the West, and missed the playoffs. They scored 114.1 a game and allowed 119.6, a difference of -5.5. They won 9 games by 10 or more and lost 30 by that much. In games decided by 5 or fewer they went 8-10, and 6 of their games went to overtime.

Minnesota won all four meetings. In Minneapolis it won 120-96 on 17 November 2025 and 122-111 on 20 February 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of Minnesota’s 41 home games and two of Dallas’s 40 road games. In Dallas it won 118-105 on 28 January 2026 and 124-94 on 30 March 2026. Those are in neither half.

Pick: Timberwolves -196

Bet the Timberwolves on the moneyline at -196. The gap is 5.6 points toward Minnesota, against a threshold of 5. That clears the line by 0.6 points, so the edge is thin.

The line read Timberwolves -196 and Mavericks +164 at DraftKings via ESPN on 12 November 2026 at 01:32 UTC. It opened at Timberwolves -185 and Mavericks +155. With the margin out, the market gave Minnesota 62.3% at the open. It gives them 63.6% now, 1.3 points more.

What kills the bet

A shorter Minnesota price kills it. At -179 or longer the Timberwolves are a bet whatever Dallas is priced at. With the Mavericks at +164, they stay a bet out to -213 and no further.

For Dallas to become the bet, the Mavericks would have to reach +287 or longer whatever Minnesota is priced at. Against the current -196, it takes +334.

For Dallas, ESPN’s list read at the same time has Dereck Lively II (foot), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio de Larrea (knee) out, and Morez Johnson Jr. (lower leg) day-to-day. The Edwards and DiVincenzo absences are the ones that matter for this side, and the number cannot see them. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 226.5, over -110 and under -110. Minnesota’s home games went over 226.5 in 21 of 41, a 51.2% rate, and averaged 225.9 points. Dallas’s road games went over in 23 of 40, a 57.5% rate, and averaged 231.3. Over the full season the counts were 51 of 82 for Minnesota and 50 of 82 for Dallas.

The average of the two venue rates is 54.4% for the over. The market prices it at 50.0%. That gap of 4.4 points leans over but sits under our threshold of 5. Pass.

The spread is Timberwolves -5.5 at -106 and Mavericks +5.5 at -114. It opened Timberwolves -4.5. Minnesota beat this line in 19 of 41 home games, and Dallas covered +5.5 in 16 of 40 road games. Averaged, Minnesota -5.5 lands 53.2% of the time against 49.1% priced, a 4.0-point lean toward the Timberwolves. Our method stakes the moneyline, so this is a lean on the same side and not a second bet. One bet on this game: Timberwolves -196.

Mavericks at Timberwolves, Thursday 12 November, 8:00 PM ET, Target Center, Minneapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 01:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury lists: ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026, 01:32 UTC.