NBA
NBA · Wednesday 11 November
Cavaliers vs Knicks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Cavaliers at +140. Our number gives Cleveland 43.0% and the price gives 40.0%, a 3-point gap against the 5 we bet at.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are +140 and the New York Knicks -166 at DraftKings for Wednesday’s game at Madison Square Garden. With the margin out, that is 40.0% for Cleveland and 60.0% for New York. Last season’s home and road records put the Cavaliers 3.0 points higher than the market. Three points is not enough.
How 43.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. New York played one, and Cleveland played none.
The Knicks went 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, a 75.0% home win rate over 40 games. The Cavaliers went 25-16 on the road, a 39.0% road loss rate over 41 games. The average is 57.0% for New York and 43.0% for Cleveland.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -166 and +140 the pair comes to 104.1%. With that taken out, the Knicks are 60.0% and the Cavaliers 40.0%.
This season is not in our number. The Knicks are 6-4, 4-2 at home, and beat the Milwaukee Bucks 117-85 on Tuesday 10 November. The Cavaliers are 5-6, 1-4 on the road, and lost 124-112 at the Charlotte Hornets on Monday 9 November. Those records point the same way as the market. The method reads last season only, so they sit outside it.
New York at home, Cleveland on the road
The Knicks at home scored 119.0 points a game and allowed 109.0, a margin of 10.0. The Cavaliers on the road scored 119.9 and allowed 116.2, a margin of 3.7.
The halves the method leaves out: New York on the road went 22-19, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0. Cleveland at home went 27-14, scoring 119.2 and allowing 114.6. The Cavaliers’ road record was close to their home record. The Knicks’ was not.
The season around it
The Knicks finished 53-29, the third seed in the East, scoring 116.5 a game and allowing 110.1, a difference of 6.4. The Cavaliers finished 52-30, the fourth seed, scoring 119.5 and allowing 115.4, a difference of 4.1. New York won 32 games by 10 or more and lost 19 that way. Cleveland’s figures were 27 and 17.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Cleveland went 13-7 and New York 11-5. The Cavaliers played 3 overtime games and the Knicks 2. Both samples are too small to read as a skill.
The Knicks won two of the three regular-season meetings. In New York they won 119-111 on 22 October 2025 and 126-124 on 25 December 2025. Those two games are in our number: two of the Knicks’ 40 home games and two of the Cavaliers’ 41 road games. In Cleveland, the Cavaliers won 109-94 on 24 February 2026, and that game is in neither half.
The playoffs are not in our number either. New York beat the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0, the Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1. Cleveland beat the Toronto Raptors 4-3 and the Detroit Pistons 4-3 before that sweep.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 3.0 points toward the Cavaliers, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Cavaliers +140 and Knicks -166 on 11 November 2026 at 04:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Cavaliers +148 and Knicks -177, when the market gave Cleveland 38.7%. The market now gives Cleveland 1.3 points more than at the open, so it has moved toward the Cavaliers. That move took away part of the gap we would have needed.
The price is close to right. Our 43.0% and the market’s 40.0% are within the range where last season’s rates cannot separate a real edge from noise, and the threshold exists to say so.
What kills the bet
A longer Cleveland price would. At +163 or longer the Cavaliers are a bet whatever New York is priced at. With the Knicks at -166, they become a bet at +161 or longer.
For the Knicks to become the bet, the price would have to fall to -108 or longer, whatever Cleveland is priced at. Against the current Cavaliers price of +140, New York becomes a bet at +122 or longer.
ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026 at 04:31 UTC, lists Josh Hart (illness) out for New York, and Sam Merrill (elbow) and Jaylon Tyson (ankle) out for Cleveland. Our number reads last season’s rates, so the list does not change it. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 221.5, over -110 and under -110. The Knicks’ home games went over 221.5 in 23 of 40, a 57.5% rate, and averaged 228.0 points. The Cavaliers’ road games went over in 33 of 41, an 80.5% rate, and averaged 236.1. Across all 82 games, the Knicks’ went over in 45 and the Cavaliers’ in 64.
That averages to 69.0% for the over, against 50.0% priced. The count leans over by 19.0 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Knicks -3.5 at -115 and Cavaliers +3.5 at -106. It opened Knicks -4.5. The Knicks beat a -3.5 line in 27 of their 40 home games, and the Cavaliers beat a +3.5 line in 29 of their 41 road games. Averaged, Knicks -3.5 lands 48.4% of the time against 51.0% priced, a gap of 2.6 points toward Cavaliers +3.5. That is a lean too, and a small one. There is no bet on this game.
Cavaliers at Knicks, Wednesday 11 November, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden, New York. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 November 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 11 November 2026, 04:31 UTC.