Wizards vs Pacers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on this game. Our number leans to the Wizards by 3 points, short of the 5 we need.

The Washington Wizards are +135 and the Indiana Pacers -160 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 40.9% for Washington and 59.1% for Indiana. Our number gives the Wizards 43.9%. The gap is 3.0 points toward Washington, and we bet at 5.

How 56.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a game at a neutral site, so nothing was left out of either half.

The Pacers went 11-30 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 26.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Wizards went 6-35 on the road and lost 35 of 41, an 85.4% road loss rate. The midpoint is 56.1% for Indiana and 43.9% for Washington.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -160 and +135 the two prices add to 104.1%. Taken out, the Pacers are 59.1% and the Wizards 40.9%. Ours and the market’s agree on the favourite and differ by 3.0 points, which is inside the range where we pass.

This season is not in our number. The Pacers are 3-8, and 0-4 at home. Their last game was a 125-122 loss at the Dallas Mavericks on Monday 9 November. The Wizards are 4-7, 2-5 on the road, and lost 122-111 at the Detroit Pistons the same night. Eleven games each is too few to replace a season, and the method does not try.

Indiana at home, Washington on the road

At home the Pacers scored 113.8 points a game and allowed 119.2, a margin of -5.4. The Wizards on the road scored 112.1 and allowed 125.2, a margin of -13.1. Those are the two halves the number uses.

The halves it leaves out: Indiana on the road went 8-33, scoring 111.0 and allowing 121.6. Washington at home went 11-30, scoring 113.7 and allowing 124.5.

The season around it

The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the Eastern Conference, and were outscored by 8.0 points a game. The Wizards finished 17-65, 15th, outscored by 12.0 a game. Neither made the playoffs.

In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Indiana went 10-12 and Washington 5-9. The Pacers won by 10 or more 7 times and lost by 10 or more 38 times. The Wizards won by 10 or more 8 times and lost by 10 or more 51 times. Indiana played 2 overtime games and Washington 3.

The Wizards won three of the four meetings. In Indianapolis, the Pacers won 119-86 on 28 November 2025 and the Wizards won 108-89 on 14 December 2025; those two games are in our number, two of the Pacers’ 41 home games and two of the Wizards’ 41 road games. In Washington, the Wizards won 112-105 on 19 February 2026 and 131-118 on 20 February 2026; those are in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 3.0 points toward the Wizards against a threshold of 5.

The line read Wizards +135 and Pacers -160 on 10 November 2026 at 22:45 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Wizards +135 and Pacers -161. Since the open the market gives Washington 0.1 points more, which is not a move worth reading into.

The price is close to right on last season’s evidence. Two teams that lost 63 and 65 games, priced about where their home and road splits put them, leave nothing to take.

What kills the bet

A longer Wizards price. At +157 or longer, Washington is a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at -160, the Wizards become a bet at +155 or longer.

For the Pacers to become the bet, the price would have to drift the other way. At -104 or longer, Indiana is a bet whatever Washington is priced at. With the Wizards at +135, the Pacers become a bet at +125 or longer.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 10 November 2026 at 22:45 UTC, has Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), Johnny Furphy (knee) and Ben Sheppard (knee) out for Indiana, with T.J. McConnell (hamstring) day-to-day. For Washington it has Tristan Vukcevic (hip), Reece Beekman (shoulder), Justin Champagnie (foot) and Jamir Watkins (knee) out. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 226.5, over -114 and under -106. The Pacers’ home games went over 226.5 in 27 of 41, a 65.9% rate. The Wizards’ road games went over in 28 of 41, a 68.3% rate. Across all 82 games, Indiana went over 49 times and Washington 59. Indiana’s home games averaged 233.0 points, Washington’s road games 237.3.

The average of the two venue rates is 67.1% for the over. With the margin out, the over is priced at 50.9% and the under at 49.1%, so our count leans to the over by 16.2 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and there is no moneyline bet here, so this stays a lean.

The spread is Pacers -4.5 at -105 and Wizards +4.5 at -115, unchanged from the open. The Pacers covered 4.5 in 8 of 41 home games; the Wizards covered +4.5 in 9 of 41 road games. That puts Pacers -4.5 at 48.8% against 48.9% priced, a gap of 0.1 points toward Wizards +4.5. That is no signal at all. No bet on this game.

Wizards at Pacers, Wednesday 11 November, 7:00 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 November 2026, 22:45 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 10 November 2026, 22:45 UTC.