NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyGS+3.5U 227.5+142MIN-3.5O 227.5-170
NBA · Wednesday 28 October
Warriors vs Timberwolves Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on either side. Our number leans Minnesota by 4.1 points, short of the 5 we bet at.
The Golden State Warriors are +136 and the Minnesota Timberwolves -162 at DraftKings. With the margin out, the market gives Minnesota 59.3% and Golden State 40.7%. Our number gives Minnesota 63.4%. That 4.1-point gap is the whole argument, and our rule is plain: we bet a side only when ours and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
How 63.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so none had to be left out.
The Timberwolves went 26-15 at Target Center, a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Warriors went 15-26 on the road, a 63.4% road loss rate over 41 games. The two halves agree exactly, so the average is 63.4% for Minnesota and 36.6% for Golden State.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 the pair comes to 104.2%. Taken out, the Timberwolves are 59.3% and the Warriors 40.7%.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only. Nothing from the new season is in it. Minnesota is 3-1, 1-0 at home, and lost its last game 127-125 in overtime at the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday 26 October. Golden State is 1-3, 1-2 on the road, and won its last game 134-114 at the Denver Nuggets the same night.
Four games is too few to say anything about either team. We give the records and draw nothing from them.
Minnesota at home, Golden State on the road
These are the splits the method uses. At home the Timberwolves scored 114.8 points a game and allowed 111.1, a margin of 3.7. On the road the Warriors scored 112.1 and allowed 114.5, a margin of -2.4.
The halves the method leaves out: Golden State at home went 22-19, scoring 117.1 and allowing 115.8. Minnesota on the road went 23-18, scoring 121.2 and allowing 118.2. The Timberwolves were a winning team in both venues. The Warriors were not.
The season around it
Minnesota finished 49-33, the sixth seed in the West, scoring 118.0 and allowing 114.6, a difference of 3.4 a game. It won 28 games by 10 or more and lost 18 that way. In games decided by 5 points or fewer it went 11-12, with 4 games to overtime. In the playoffs it beat the Denver Nuggets 4-2 and lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-2.
Golden State finished 37-45, the tenth seed, and missed the playoffs. It scored 114.6 and allowed 115.2, a difference of -0.6 a game. It went 10-13 in close games, with 5 to overtime, and won 20 games by 10 or more against 23 losses by that much.
Minnesota won three of the four meetings. In Minneapolis, Golden State won 111-85 on Sunday 25 January 2026 and Minnesota won 108-83 the next night. Both games are in our number: one of the Timberwolves’ 41 home games each, and one of the Warriors’ 41 road games each. At Golden State, Minnesota won 127-120 on Friday 12 December 2025 and 127-117 on Friday 13 March 2026. Those two are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.1 points toward Minnesota, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Timberwolves -162 and Warriors +136 on 28 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened Timberwolves -230 and Warriors +190, which with the margin out was 66.9% for Minnesota. Since the open the market has moved 7.6 points toward Golden State. Our 63.4% sits between the opening price and the current one, and the current one is close enough to it that we call the price right.
What kills the bet
A longer Minnesota price makes the Timberwolves a bet. At -140 or longer they are a bet whatever Golden State is priced at. With the Warriors held at +136, they become a bet at -147 or longer.
For the Warriors to be the bet the price has to run the other way. At +216 or longer they are a bet whatever Minnesota is priced at. Against the current -162, they need +250 or longer.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 28 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) out for Minnesota. For Golden State it has Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Moses Moody (knee) and Jimmy Butler III (knee) out, and Yaxel Lendeborg (foot) day-to-day. Our number reads last season’s home and road records, so the list does not change it. In our view the Edwards absence is one more reason not to chase a 4.1-point lean toward his team. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 228.5, over -108 and under -112. The Timberwolves’ home games went over 228.5 in 20 of 41, a 48.8% rate, and averaged 225.9 points. The Warriors’ road games went over in 18 of 41, a 43.9% rate, and averaged 226.6 points. Across all 82 games, Minnesota went over in 46 and Golden State in 45.
Our count puts the over at 46.3%. The market, with the margin out, has the over at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%. That is a 3.2-point lean to the under, under the threshold. Pass.
The spread is Timberwolves -3.5 at -110 and Warriors +3.5 at -110. It opened Timberwolves -6.5. Minnesota won by 4 or more in 22 of its 41 home games. Golden State covered +3.5 in 20 of its 41 road games. Averaged, Timberwolves -3.5 lands 52.4% of the time against 50.0% priced, a 2.4-point lean toward Minnesota. Our method stakes the moneyline only, and this lean is smaller than the one we already pass on. No bet on this game.
Warriors at Timberwolves, Wednesday 28 October, 8:00 PM ET, Target Center, Minneapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.