NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyDEN-4.5U 240.5-198NO+4.5O 240.5+164
NBA · Wednesday 28 October
Nuggets vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Pelicans at +164. Our number gives New Orleans 39.0%, the price gives them 36.3%, and a 2.7-point gap is short of the 5 we bet at.
The Denver Nuggets are -198 and the New Orleans Pelicans +164 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 63.7% for Denver and 36.3% for New Orleans. Last season’s home and road records put New Orleans 2.7 points higher than the price. We bet at 5, so this prediction is a pass.
How 39.0% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Neither team played one.
The Pelicans went 17-24 at home, a 41.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Nuggets went 26-15 on the road and lost 15 of 41, a 36.6% road loss rate. The midpoint is 39.0% for New Orleans and 61.0% for Denver.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +164 and -198 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 36.3% and the Nuggets 63.7%.
Our 39.0% and the market’s 36.3% sit 2.7 points apart. Below 5 points we treat a gap as noise in a two-rate average, and 2.7 is below 5. On last season’s evidence, DraftKings has this game priced about right.
This season so far
New Orleans is 0-3 in 2026-27, 0-1 at home. Its last game was a 141-135 overtime loss at Denver on Saturday 24 October. Denver is 1-2, 0-1 on the road, and lost 134-114 to the Golden State Warriors on Monday 26 October.
None of that is in our number, which reads 2025-26 only. That includes the 24 October game between these two teams. Three games a side tell us nothing yet, and the method does not try to read them.
New Orleans at home, Denver on the road
At home the Pelicans scored 118.2 points a game and allowed 119.5, a deficit of 1.3. The Nuggets on the road scored 123.3 and allowed 118.6, a surplus of 4.7.
The halves the method leaves out: Denver at home went 28-13, scoring 120.8 and allowing 115.2. New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5, a deficit of 7.6 a game. Those are the best and worst of the four splits by win rate. Neither describes a game in New Orleans.
Over the full 2025-26 season, the Nuggets finished 54-28, the third seed in the West, scoring 122.1 a game and allowing 116.9, a difference of 5.2. They lost their playoff series 4-2 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Pelicans finished 26-56, the 11th seed, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0, a difference of -4.5, and missed the playoffs.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Denver went 15-13 and New Orleans 6-13. Denver won 28 games by 10 or more and lost 9 that way. New Orleans won 15 by 10 or more and lost 25.
The Nuggets won all three games between the teams last season. In New Orleans they won 125-118 on 19 November 2025 and 122-116 on 13 January 2026; those are in our number, two of the Pelicans’ 41 home games and two of the Nuggets’ 41 road games. In Denver they won 122-88 on 29 October 2025, and that game is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 2.7 points toward the Pelicans, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Nuggets -198 and Pelicans +164 on 28 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Nuggets -185 and Pelicans +154. With the margin out, the market gave New Orleans 37.8% at the open and gives it 36.3% now, a move of 1.4 points toward Denver since opening.
Our number gives Denver 61.0%. The market gives 63.7%. Both make the Nuggets a clear favourite, and they differ by less than our bar.
What kills the bet
A longer Pelicans price. At +194 or longer the Pelicans are a bet whatever Denver is priced at; with the Nuggets at -198, they become a bet at +192 or longer. They are +164.
For the Nuggets to be the bet, their price would have to drift to -127 or longer. They are -198, so Denver is the further of the two sides from a bet.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 28 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Yves Missi (knee) out and Jordan Poole (illness) day-to-day for New Orleans. For Denver it has Spencer Jones (hamstring), Alpha Diallo (personal) and Julian Strawther (knee) out, and Cameron Johnson (ankle) day-to-day. None of these changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 241.5, over -112 and under -108. The Pelicans’ home games went over 241.5 in 12 of 41, the Nuggets’ road games in 25 of 41. New Orleans’ home games averaged 237.7 points, Denver’s road games 241.9. Across all 82 games, the Pelicans went over this line in 28 and the Nuggets in 40.
That is 29.3% and 61.0%, an average of 45.1% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%, so our count leans to the under by 5.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Pelicans +5.5 at -115 and Nuggets -5.5 at -105. It opened Pelicans +4.5. New Orleans would have covered +5.5 in 23 of 41 home games; Denver would have covered -5.5 in 17 of 41 road games. Averaged, Pelicans +5.5 lands 57.3% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 6.2 points toward the Pelicans. That is a lean on the same side as the moneyline gap, and the call on this game stays no bet.
Nuggets at Pelicans, Wednesday 28 October, 8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 28 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.