NBA
SpreadTotalMoneySA-12.5U 229.5-575DAL+12.5O 229.5+425
NBA · Saturday 24 October
Spurs vs Mavericks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Mavericks on the moneyline. Our number gives Dallas at home 34.1%; the price gives them 18.3%.
The San Antonio Spurs are -575 and the Dallas Mavericks +425 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 81.7% for San Antonio and 18.3% for Dallas. Last season’s home and road records put Dallas 15.8 points higher than that. We bet at 5.
How 34.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Each team played one.
The Mavericks went 16-25 at American Airlines Center, a 39.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Spurs went 29-12 on the road, a 29.3% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 34.1% for Dallas and 65.9% for San Antonio.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -575 and +425 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Spurs are 81.7% and the Mavericks 18.3%.
This season so far
None of 2026-27 is in our number. The Mavericks are 1-1 and won 121-105 at the Indiana Pacers on Friday 23 October. This is their first home game: their home record reads 0-0.
The Spurs are 0-2, both losses against Western Conference teams, the second 114-110 to the Houston Rockets on Friday 23 October. They have not played on the road yet. Our number reads last season only, and it does not see summer roster changes either. That is the main risk in this bet.
Dallas at home, San Antonio on the road
At home the Mavericks scored 116.3 points a game and allowed 119.9, a margin of -3.6. On the road the Spurs scored 119.4 and allowed 111.2, a margin of 8.2.
The halves the method leaves out are uneven. Dallas went 10-30 on the road, scoring 112.0 and allowing 119.3. San Antonio went 32-8 at home, scoring 120.5 and allowing 111.9.
The season around it
The Spurs finished 62-20, second in the West, with a point difference of 8.3 a game. They won by 10 or more 43 times and lost by 10 or more 8 times. In the playoffs they beat the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 and the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the New York Knicks.
The Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the West, and missed the playoffs. Their point difference was -5.5 a game. They lost by 10 or more 30 times and won by that much 9 times. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 8-10, against 13-10 for San Antonio. Dallas played 6 overtime games, San Antonio 2.
The Spurs won all four meetings. In Dallas they won 125-92 on 22 October 2025 and 135-123 on 5 February 2026. Those games are in our number: two of the Mavericks’ 41 home games and two of the Spurs’ 41 road games. In San Antonio they won 138-125 on 7 February and 139-120 on 10 April. Those are in neither half.
Pick: Mavericks +425
Bet the Mavericks on the moneyline at +425. The gap is 15.8 points toward Dallas, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Mavericks +425 and Spurs -575 on 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Mavericks +360 and Spurs -470. Since opening the market has moved toward San Antonio: it gives the Spurs 81.7%, up from 79.1% at the open.
What kills the bet
A shorter Dallas price. At +244 or longer the Mavericks are a bet whatever San Antonio is priced at. With the Spurs at -575, they stay a bet down to +186.
For the Spurs to become the bet, their price would have to drift to -156 or longer. It is -575.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 24 October 2026 at 13:02 UTC, has Cooper Flagg (shoulder) out for Dallas, with Caleb Martin (thumb), Jett Howard (calf), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Santi Aldama (knee) day-to-day. For San Antonio, Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) are out. Our method reads last season’s rates only, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Dallas a 65.9% chance of losing. The case is that +425 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 229.5, over -112 and under -108. The Mavericks’ home games went over in 24 of 41, a 58.5% rate, and averaged 236.2 points. The Spurs’ road games went over in 21 of 41, a 51.2% rate, and averaged 230.6.
The average is 54.9% for the over. With the margin out, the over is priced at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%. That is a 4.4-point lean to the over, under our threshold of 5. Pass.
The spread is Mavericks +12.5 at -108 and Spurs -12.5 at -112; it opened at 11.5. Dallas beat a 12.5-point line in 33 of 41 home games. San Antonio beat it in 16 of 41 road games. Averaged, Mavericks +12.5 lands 70.7% of the time against 49.6% priced, a gap of 21.2 points. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Mavericks at +425.
Spurs at Mavericks, Saturday 24 October, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 24 October 2026, 13:02 UTC.