Mavericks vs Pacers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Mavericks at +185. Our number gives Dallas on the road 49.1%; the price gives them 33.6%.

The Dallas Mavericks are +185 and the Indiana Pacers -225 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 33.6% for Dallas and 66.4% for Indiana. Last season’s home and road records put Dallas 15.5 points higher than that. We bet at 5.

How 50.9% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Dallas played one, Indiana none.

The Pacers went 11-30 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 26.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Mavericks went 10-30 on the road and lost 30 of 40, a 75.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 50.9% for Indiana and 49.1% for Dallas. On this evidence the game is close to even, and the price says it is not.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +185 and -225 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Mavericks are 33.6% and the Pacers 66.4%.

Both teams have played once in 2026-27, on Wednesday 21 October. Indiana won 123-120 at the New Orleans Pelicans and is 1-0. Dallas lost 128-110 at the Houston Rockets and is 0-1. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so neither game is in it. Rosters change over a summer, and the number does not see that either. That is the main risk in this bet.

Indiana at home, Dallas on the road

At home the Pacers scored 113.8 points a game and allowed 119.2, a deficit of 5.4. The Mavericks on the road scored 112.0 and allowed 119.3, a deficit of 7.3. Neither half describes a good team. The home half is the weaker of the two.

The halves the method leaves out: Dallas at home went 16-25, scoring 116.3 and allowing 119.9. Indiana on the road went 8-33, scoring 111.0 and allowing 121.6.

The season around it

The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the East, scoring 112.4 a game and allowing 120.4, a deficit of 8.0. The Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the West, scoring 114.1 and allowing 119.6, a deficit of 5.5. Both missed the playoffs.

Indiana lost 38 games by 10 or more and won 7 by that much. Dallas lost 30 by 10 or more and won 9. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, the Pacers went 10-12 and the Mavericks 8-10; Dallas played 6 overtime games, Indiana 2.

The Mavericks won both meetings. In Indianapolis, Dallas won 134-130 on Sunday 22 February 2026; that game is in our number, one of the Pacers’ 41 home games and one of the Mavericks’ 40 road games. In Dallas, the Mavericks won 107-105 on Wednesday 29 October 2025; that one is in neither half. Two games prove nothing on their own.

Pick: Mavericks +185

Bet the Mavericks on the moneyline at +185. The gap is 15.5 points toward Dallas, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Mavericks +185 and Pacers -225 on 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Mavericks +170 and Pacers -205, when the market gave Indiana 64.5% and Dallas 35.5%. Since opening the market has moved toward Indiana by 1.9 points, which makes the Dallas price longer.

What kills the bet

A shorter Dallas price. At +127 or longer the Mavericks are a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at -225, they stay a bet down to -120.

For the Pacers to become the bet, they would have to be +118 or longer whatever the Dallas price; with the Mavericks at +185, +236 or longer. They are -225.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 22 October 2026 at 20:59 UTC, has Dereck Lively II (foot), Caleb Martin (thumb), Santi Aldama (knee) and Tarik Biberovic (heel) out for Dallas, with Jett Howard (calf) day-to-day. For Indiana, T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Johnny Furphy (knee) are out and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) is day-to-day. None of these absences re-runs our method, so the number stands at 49.1%. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Dallas a 50.9% chance of losing. The case is that +185 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 236.5, over -115 and under -105. The Pacers’ home games went over 236.5 in 17 of 41, a 41.5% rate, and averaged 233.0 points. The Mavericks’ road games went over in 13 of 40, a 32.5% rate, and averaged 231.3. Over the full season, Indiana’s games went over in 35 of 82 and Dallas’s in 31 of 82.

The average of the two venue rates is 37.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%, so our count leans to the under by 14.1 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Pacers -6.5 at -105 and Mavericks +6.5 at -115; it opened Pacers -5.5. Indiana won at home by 7 or more in 6 of 41 games. Dallas on the road beat a 6.5-point handicap in 18 of 40. Averaged, Pacers -6.5 lands 34.8% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 14.1 points toward Mavericks +6.5. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Mavericks at +185.

Mavericks at Pacers, Friday 23 October, 7:00 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 22 October 2026, 20:59 UTC.