Pacers vs Mavericks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Mavericks. Our number and the price sit 1.3 points apart, and we bet at 5.

The Dallas Mavericks are -156 and the Indiana Pacers +131 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 58.5% for Dallas and 41.5% for Indiana. Last season’s home and road records put Dallas at 59.8%. The market is 1.3 points short of that, too small a gap to stake.

How 59.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Dallas played one, and Indiana played none.

The Mavericks went 16-25 at American Airlines Center, a 39.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Pacers went 8-33 on the road, an 80.5% road loss rate. The midpoint is 59.8% for Dallas and 40.2% for Indiana.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -156 and +131 the two come to 104.2%. With the margin taken out, the Mavericks are 58.5% and the Pacers 41.5%. On this evidence the price is close to right.

This season is outside the method. Dallas is 6-4, 4-2 at home, and beat the Brooklyn Nets 130-93 on Sunday 8 November. Indiana is 3-7, 3-2 on the road, and lost 114-102 to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday 7 November. Our number reads 2025-26 only. Those ten games each are not in it.

Dallas at home, Indiana on the road

At home the Mavericks scored 116.3 points a game and allowed 119.9, a deficit of 3.6. The Pacers on the road scored 111.0 and allowed 121.6, a deficit of 10.6. Both halves are losing halves. The method only asks which one lost more.

Then there are the halves the method leaves out. Dallas on the road went 10-30, scoring 112.0 and allowing 119.3. Indiana at home went 11-30, scoring 113.8 and allowing 119.2.

Two losing seasons

The Mavericks finished 26-56, 12th in the Western Conference, with a point difference of -5.5 a game (114.1 scored, 119.6 allowed). The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the Eastern Conference, at -8.0 a game (112.4 scored, 120.4 allowed). Neither made the playoffs.

The blowouts separate them more than the close games do. Dallas lost by 10 or more 30 times and won by 10 or more 9 times. Indiana lost by 10 or more 38 times and won by that much 7 times. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Dallas went 8-10 and Indiana 10-12. Dallas played 6 overtime games, Indiana 2.

The Mavericks won both meetings. In Dallas they won 107-105 on Wednesday 29 October 2025. That game is in our number, as one of the Mavericks’ 41 home games and one of the Pacers’ 41 road games. In the Pacers’ arena they won 134-130 on Sunday 22 February 2026, which is in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on this game. The gap is 1.3 points toward the Mavericks, against a threshold of 5.

DraftKings had Mavericks -156 and Pacers +131 when read via ESPN on 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC. The line opened at Mavericks -169 and Pacers +142, when the market gave Dallas 60.3%. Since opening it has moved toward Indiana, which now gets 1.9 points more than it did at the open. That move took the price closer to our 59.8%, not away from it.

What kills the bet

The price can move far enough to create a bet.

• Mavericks: they become a bet at -121 or longer, whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at +131, the Mavericks become a bet at -110 or longer.
• Pacers: they become a bet at +184 or longer, whatever Dallas is priced at. With the Mavericks at -156, the threshold is +202 or longer.

Neither number is close to the current line.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, has these entries:

• Dallas: Sergio de Larrea (knee), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Dereck Lively II (foot) out.
• Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), Johnny Furphy (knee) and Ben Sheppard (knee) out, and T.J. McConnell (hamstring) day-to-day.

The list does not change our number, which reads last season’s splits. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 226.5, over -105 and under -115. On the halves our method uses, the Mavericks’ home games went over 226.5 in 26 of 41 (63.4%), and the Pacers’ road games in 22 of 41 (53.7%). Those games averaged 236.2 and 232.6 points. Across all 82 games, Dallas went over this line 50 times and Indiana 49 times.

The average of those two rates is 58.5% for the over. With the margin removed, the market prices the over at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%. That is a gap of 9.6 points toward the over. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and not a bet.

The spread is Mavericks -3.5 at -108 and Pacers +3.5 at -112. It opened at Mavericks -4.5. Dallas beat -3.5 in 12 of its 41 home games. Indiana beat +3.5 in 10 of its 41 road games. Averaged, Mavericks -3.5 lands 52.4% of the time against 49.6% priced, a gap of 2.9 points. That is a smaller lean, and it is not a bet. The moneyline sits 1.3 points from our number, and the call is no bet.

Pacers at Mavericks, Monday 9 November, 8:00 PM ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.