NBA
NBA · Monday 9 November
Lakers vs Hawks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Lakers at +101. Our number gives Los Angeles 51.2% on the road; the price gives 47.7%, a gap of 3.5 points against a bar of 5.
The Los Angeles Lakers are +101 and the Atlanta Hawks -120 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 47.7% for Los Angeles and 52.3% for Atlanta. Our number leans to the Lakers by 3.5 points. We bet at 5, so this is a pass, and the price is close enough to right.
How 51.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game last season, so both halves hold all 41 games.
The Hawks went 24-17 at State Farm Arena, a 58.5% home win rate. The Lakers went 25-16 on the road and lost 16 of 41, a 39.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 48.8% for Atlanta and 51.2% for Los Angeles.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -120 and +101 they add to 104.3%. Taken out, the Hawks are 52.3% and the Lakers 47.7%.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only. The Lakers are 9-2 in 2026-27, 4-1 on the road and 6-2 against the West. The Hawks are 7-4, 3-2 at home and 7-1 against the East. None of that is in the method.
Both teams won their last game. Atlanta beat the Brooklyn Nets 124-121 at home on Saturday 7 November. Los Angeles won 121-116 at the Detroit Pistons on Sunday 8 November, the night before this game. The method does not see rest days either.
Atlanta at home, Los Angeles on the road
At home the Hawks scored 117.8 points a game and allowed 114.0, a surplus of 3.8. The Lakers on the road scored 114.7 and allowed 115.2, a deficit of 0.5.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way the season did. Los Angeles at home went 28-13, scoring 118.0 and allowing 114.0. Atlanta on the road went 22-19, scoring 119.1 and allowing 118.1.
The season around it
The Lakers finished 53-29, the fourth seed in the West, and outscored opponents by 1.7 points a game. The Hawks finished 46-36, the sixth seed in the East, at 2.5 points a game. Atlanta had the better point difference on seven fewer wins.
Close games explain part of that gap. With a close game defined as a margin of 5 points or fewer, the Lakers went 11-4 and the Hawks 9-10. Fifteen and nineteen games are thin samples, and a record in them says little about the next one. Atlanta won by 10 or more 33 times and lost by 10 or more 19 times; Los Angeles did so 28 and 21 times.
In the playoffs the Lakers beat the Houston Rockets 4-2 and lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0. The Hawks lost to the New York Knicks 4-2.
The teams split two meetings. In Atlanta on Saturday 8 November 2025, the Hawks won 122-102; that game is in our number, one of the Hawks’ 41 home games and one of the Lakers’ 41 road games. In Los Angeles on Tuesday 13 January 2026, the Lakers won 141-116; that game is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 3.5 points toward the Lakers, against a threshold of 5. Below the threshold the gap is inside what our method can tell apart from noise.
The line read Hawks -120 and Lakers +101 on 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Hawks +112 and Lakers -133. Since the open the market gives Atlanta 7.1 points more: 52.3% now against 45.2% then. At the opening price, the Lakers were the side priced past our number.
What kills the bet
Here the question is what would make one. The Lakers become a bet at +117 or longer whatever Atlanta is priced at; with the Hawks at -120, they become a bet at +114. That is 13 cents from the current +101.
The Hawks need far more. They are a bet at +129 or longer whatever Los Angeles is priced at, and at +158 or longer against the current Lakers price. At -120 they are well short.
ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, lists Luka Doncic (back) and Quentin Grimes (finger) as day-to-day for Los Angeles. For Atlanta it lists Asa Newell (toe), Keshon Gilbert (knee), Jock Landale (hip), Mouhamed Gueye (foot) and Henri Veesaar (knee) as out. Our method reads home and road records and no injuries, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 237.5, over -107 and under -113. The Hawks’ home games went over 237.5 in 13 of 41, a 31.7% rate. The Lakers’ road games went over in 12 of 41, 29.3%. Atlanta’s home games averaged 231.8 points and Los Angeles’s road games 229.9.
The average of the two rates is 30.5% for the over. With the margin out the market prices the over at 49.4% and the under at 50.6%, so our count leans to the under by 18.9 points. Across all 82 games the count is softer: 35 overs for Atlanta, 29 for Los Angeles. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so the under is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Hawks -1.5 at -112 and Lakers +1.5 at -108. It opened with Atlanta getting 2.5 points. The Hawks covered -1.5 in 24 of 41 home games; the Lakers covered +1.5 in 25 of 41 road games. Averaged, Hawks -1.5 lands 48.8% of the time against 50.4% priced, a gap of 1.7 points toward Lakers +1.5. That is a lean too, and a small one. No bet on this game.
Lakers at Hawks, Monday 9 November, 7:00 PM ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.