NBA
NBA · Monday 9 November
Grizzlies vs Raptors Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Raptors to win. Our number gives Toronto at home 65.5%; the price gives them 57.3%.
The Memphis Grizzlies are +125 and the Toronto Raptors -148 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 42.7% for Memphis and 57.3% for Toronto. Last season’s home and road records put Toronto 8.2 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.
How 65.5% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Toronto played none. Memphis played two, and they are left out.
The Raptors went 24-17 at Scotiabank Arena, a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Grizzlies went 11-29 on the road, a 72.5% road loss rate over 40. The midpoint is 65.5% for Toronto and 34.5% for Memphis.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -148 and +125 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Raptors are 57.3% and the Grizzlies 42.7%.
This season is not in our number. Toronto is 5-4, 2-1 at home, and won 121-107 at the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday 6 November. Memphis is 6-3 and 4-0 on the road, and lost 128-97 to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday 6 November. Four road games is too few to say anything about this season’s Grizzlies away from home. It is still the strongest evidence against the bet, and the method does not see it.
Toronto at home, Memphis on the road
At home the Raptors scored 115.3 points a game and allowed 110.8, a surplus of 4.5. The Grizzlies on the road scored 113.3 and allowed 121.9, a deficit of 8.6.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Toronto on the road went 22-19, scoring 114.0 and allowing 112.8. Memphis at home went 13-27, scoring 115.8 and allowing 119.8.
The 2025-26 season around it
The Raptors finished 46-36, fifth in the Eastern Conference, scoring 114.6 a game and allowing 111.8, a difference of 2.8. They won 33 games by 10 or more and lost 23 that way. In the playoffs they lost a seven-game series to the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-3.
The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the Western Conference, scoring 114.7 and allowing 120.7, a difference of -6.0. They won 9 games by 10 or more and lost 32 by that much. They missed the playoffs.
Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, were 7-5 for Toronto and 7-9 for Memphis. That is 12 and 16 games: too few to read as a skill either way.
The Raptors won both meetings. In Toronto they won 117-104 on Sunday 2 November 2025. That game is in our number: one of the Raptors’ 41 home games and one of the Grizzlies’ 40 road games. In Memphis they won 128-96 on Friday 3 April 2026. That game is in neither half.
Pick: Raptors -148
Bet the Raptors on the moneyline at -148. The gap is 8.2 points toward Toronto, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Raptors -148 and Grizzlies +125 on 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Raptors -139 and Grizzlies +117, when the market gave Toronto 55.8%. Since opening it has moved toward Toronto by 1.5 points.
What kills the bet
A shorter Toronto price. At -153 or longer the Raptors are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at +125, they stay a bet down to -214.
For Memphis to become the bet, the Grizzlies would need to be +239 or longer whatever Toronto is priced at, or +300 or longer against the current -148. They are +125.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, has Kawhi Leonard (knee) and Nate Bittle (foot) out for Toronto, with Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) and Scottie Barnes (groin) day-to-day. Memphis has Scotty Pippen Jr. (back), Isaiah Stewart (knee) and Richie Saunders (knee) out. Our number is built from last season’s results and does not read the list, so the list does not change it. Check the lineups before you bet. Barnes and Quickley are the two names to watch.
Our number still gives Memphis a 34.5% chance. The case is that -148 asks for 57.3%, and last season’s evidence says Toronto at home against this road team is worth more.
The total and the spread
The total is 228.5, over -113 and under -107. The Raptors’ home games went over 228.5 in 16 of 41. The Grizzlies’ road games went over in 23 of 40. Toronto’s home games averaged 226.1 points, Memphis’s road games 235.2.
That is 39.0% and 57.5%, an average of 48.3% for the over. With the margin out, the over is priced at 50.6% and the under at 49.4%. Our count leans to the under by 2.4 points, under the threshold of 5. Pass.
The spread is Raptors -2.5 at -117 and Grizzlies +2.5 at -103, unchanged from the open. Toronto beat this line in 20 of 41 home games, and Memphis beat it in 12 of 40 road games. Averaged, Raptors -2.5 lands 59.4% of the time against 51.5% priced, a gap of 7.9 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Raptors at -148.
Grizzlies at Raptors, Monday 9 November, 7:30 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.