NBA
SpreadTotalMoneySA-7.5U 225.5-245PHX+7.5O 225.5+202
NBA · Monday 9 November
Spurs vs Suns Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Suns at +202. Our number gives Phoenix at home 45.1%; the price gives them 31.8%.
The San Antonio Spurs are -245 and the Phoenix Suns +202 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 68.2% for San Antonio and 31.8% for Phoenix. Last season’s home and road records put Phoenix 13.3 points higher than that. We bet at 5.
How 45.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates. One is the home team’s win rate in its own arena. The other is the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half; San Antonio played one, Phoenix none.
The Suns went 25-16 at home, a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Spurs went 29-12 on the road, a 29.3% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 45.1% for Phoenix and 54.9% for San Antonio.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -245 and +202 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Spurs are 68.2% and the Suns 31.8%.
This season is not in our number. The Spurs are 8-2, 4-0 on the road, and won 125-103 at the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday 7 November. The Suns are 3-5, 3-2 at home, and beat the Houston Rockets 102-99 on the same night. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so a 4-0 road start for San Antonio does not move it. That is the main risk in this bet.
Phoenix at home, San Antonio on the road
At home the Suns scored 112.0 points a game and allowed 108.4, a margin of 3.6. The Spurs on the road scored 119.4 and allowed 111.2, a margin of 8.2. San Antonio was the stronger team on the floor, and our number does not say otherwise; it says the price overstates by how much.
The halves the method leaves out: Phoenix on the road went 20-21, scoring 113.2 and allowing 113.8. San Antonio at home went 32-8, scoring 120.5 and allowing 111.9.
The season around it
The Spurs finished 62-20, the 2 seed in the West, scoring 119.8 and allowing 111.5, a difference of 8.3 a game. They won by 10 or more 43 times and lost by 10 or more 8 times. The Suns finished 45-37, the 8 seed, with a difference of 1.5 a game: 25 wins by 10 or more, 17 losses by 10 or more.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, San Antonio went 13-10 and Phoenix 12-14. Each team played 2 overtime games.
In the playoffs the Spurs beat the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 and the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3, then went 1-4 against the New York Knicks. The Suns were swept 4-0 by the Thunder.
The four meetings split 2-2, each team winning both games in its own arena. In Phoenix, the Suns won 130-118 on 2 November 2025 and 111-102 on 23 November 2025. Those games are in our number: two of the Suns’ 41 home games and two of the Spurs’ 41 road games. In San Antonio, the Spurs won 121-94 on 19 February 2026 and 101-100 on 19 March 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: Suns +202
Bet the Suns on the moneyline at +202. The gap is 13.3 points toward Phoenix, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Suns +202 and Spurs -245 on 8 November 2026 at 20:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Suns +200 and Spurs -243. Since the open the market gives San Antonio 0.2 points more, a move toward the Spurs too small to change anything.
What kills the bet
A shorter Phoenix price. At +150 or longer the Suns are a bet whatever San Antonio is priced at. With the Spurs at -245, they stay a bet down to +110.
For the Spurs to become the bet, they would have to be +101 or longer whatever the Suns’ price. Against the current Suns price of +202, they would need +203. They are -245.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 8 November 2026 at 20:32 UTC, has Jordan Goodwin (calf) and Mark Williams (shoulder) out for Phoenix, and Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) out for San Antonio. None of these absences changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Phoenix a 54.9% chance of losing. The case is that +202 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 225.5, over -110 and under -110. The Suns’ home games went over 225.5 in 16 of 41, a 39.0% rate, and averaged 220.4 points. The Spurs’ road games went over in 22 of 41, a 53.7% rate, and averaged 230.6. Over the full season, Phoenix’s games went over in 40 of 82 and San Antonio’s in 44 of 82.
The average of the two venue rates gives the over 46.3%, against 50.0% priced. That is a lean to the under of 3.7 points, below the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.
The spread is Suns +7.5 and Spurs -7.5, both at -110, unchanged from the open. Phoenix’s home games beat +7.5 in 33 of 41. San Antonio’s road games beat -7.5 in 21 of 41. The count gives Suns +7.5 a 64.6% chance against 50.0% priced, a gap of 14.6 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Suns at +202.
Spurs at Suns, Monday 9 November, 9:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 November 2026, 20:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 8 November 2026, 20:32 UTC.