Pelicans vs Clippers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Clippers at home. Our number gives them a 67.1% chance to win; the price gives them 47.8%.

The New Orleans Pelicans are -119 and the LA Clippers +101 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 52.2% for New Orleans and 47.8% for the Clippers. Last season’s home and road records put the Clippers 19.3 points higher than the price does. We bet at 5.

How 67.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site belong in neither half. Neither team played one, so nothing was left out.

The Clippers went 23-18 at home, a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Pelicans went 9-32 on the road and lost 32 of 41, a 78.0% road loss rate. The average is 67.1% for the Clippers and 32.9% for New Orleans.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -119 and +101 the pair adds to 104.1%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 52.2% and the Clippers 47.8%.

This season’s results are not in our number, and they cut against the bet. The Clippers are 1-7 in 2026-27 and 1-3 at home, and they lost their last game 117-116 in overtime to the Miami Heat on Wednesday 4 November. The Pelicans are 4-5 and 1-2 on the road, and they lost 115-109 to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday 6 November. Eight games is too small a sample to replace a full season in the method. In our view a 1-7 start and the Clippers’ injury list below are the main risk in this bet.

Clippers at home, Pelicans on the road

At home last season the Clippers scored 115.0 points a game and allowed 111.3, a margin of 3.7. On the road the Pelicans scored 112.9 and allowed 120.5, a margin of -7.6. That road record of 9-32 is what drives the number.

The method leaves two halves out. The Pelicans went 17-24 at home, scoring 118.2 and allowing 119.5. The Clippers went 19-22 on the road, scoring 112.5 and allowing 113.9.

The 2025-26 season

The Clippers finished 42-40, ninth in the West, with a point difference of 1.2 a game. They missed the playoffs. They went 10-12 in games decided by 5 points or fewer and played 3 overtime games. They won 25 games by 10 or more and lost 23 by 10 or more.

The Pelicans finished 26-56, eleventh in the West, with a point difference of -4.5 a game, and also missed the playoffs. They went 6-13 in games decided by 5 or fewer and played 5 overtime games. They won 15 by 10 or more and lost 25 by that much.

The teams split four meetings, and each won both games in its own arena. In Los Angeles the Clippers won 126-124 on 31 October 2025 and 137-117 on 1 March 2026. Those two games are in our number: two of the Clippers’ 41 home games and two of the Pelicans’ 41 road games. In New Orleans the Pelicans won 124-109 on 18 March and 105-99 on 19 March. Those games are in neither half.

Pick: Clippers +101

Bet the Clippers on the moneyline at +101. The gap is 19.3 points toward the Clippers, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Clippers +101 and Pelicans -119 on 8 November 2026 at 00:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Clippers +101 and Pelicans -120. Since the open, the market gives the Clippers 0.1 points more.

What kills the bet

The bet ends with a shorter Clippers price. At -164 or longer the Clippers are a bet whatever New Orleans is priced at. With the Pelicans at -119, they stay a bet down to -827.

For the Pelicans to become the bet, they would have to be +258 or longer whatever the Clippers’ price. Against the Clippers at +101, they would need +419 or longer. They are -119.

ESPN’s game page, read 8 November 2026 at 00:31 UTC, lists four Clippers as out: Brandon Ingram (Achilles), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (foot), Bradley Beal (knee) and Jordan Miller (shoulder). For the Pelicans it lists Yves Missi (knee) as out. Our number does not read the injury list, so the list does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 225.5, over -110 and under -110. The Clippers’ home games went over 225.5 in 18 of 41, a 43.9% rate. The Pelicans’ road games went over in 26 of 41, 63.4%. Those games averaged 226.3 and 233.4 points.

Averaged, our count gives the over 53.7% against 50.0% priced. That gap of 3.7 points sits under the threshold of 5, so the total is a pass. Across all 82 games, the Clippers went over this line in 39 and the Pelicans in 55.

The spread is Clippers +1.5 and Pelicans -1.5, both at -110, unchanged from the open. The Clippers beat this line in 24 of their 41 home games. The Pelicans beat it in 9 of 41 on the road. Our count has Clippers +1.5 landing 68.3% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 18.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Clippers at +101.

Pelicans at Clippers, Sunday 8 November, 9:00 PM ET, Intuit Dome, Inglewood. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 8 November 2026, 00:31 UTC.