76ers vs Bulls Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Take the Bulls at +253. Our number gives Chicago at home 45.1%; the price gives them 27.2%.

The Philadelphia 76ers are -313 and the Chicago Bulls +253 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 72.8% for Philadelphia and 27.2% for Chicago. Last season’s home and road records put Chicago 17.9 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.

How 45.1% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games would sit in neither half. Neither team played one.

The Bulls went 18-23 at the United Center, a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The 76ers went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The average is 45.1% for Chicago and 54.9% for Philadelphia.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -313 and +253 they come to 104.1%. With that taken out, the 76ers are 72.8% and the Bulls 27.2%.

The 2026-27 season is not in our number. The Bulls are 1-7, 0-2 at home, and last lost 135-105 at the New York Knicks on Wednesday 4 November. The 76ers are 8-2, 4-1 on the road, and last lost 119-95 at the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday 6 November. Eight and ten games are the only current evidence, and our method sets them aside. That is the main risk in this bet.

Chicago at home, Philadelphia on the road

At home the Bulls scored 114.9 points a game and allowed 118.6, a margin of -3.7. The 76ers on the road scored 116.4 and allowed 115.6, a margin of +0.8. The gap between those two halves is small. The market prices it as a mismatch.

The method leaves out the other two halves. Chicago on the road went 13-28, scoring 117.7 and allowing 124.4, a margin of -6.7. Philadelphia at home went 23-18, scoring 115.4 and allowing 116.5, a margin of -1.1. The weak Bulls half is the road half, and it plays no part here.

The season around it

The Bulls finished 31-51, the 12 seed in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 116.3 and allowed 121.5 a game, a difference of -5.2. They won 13 games by 10 or more and lost 33 by 10 or more. In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, they went 13-9, with 2 overtime games.

The 76ers finished 45-37, the 7 seed in the East, scoring 115.9 and allowing 116.1 a game, a difference of -0.2. They won 26 games by 10 or more and lost 20 by that much. They went 10-10 in close games and played 7 overtime games. In the playoffs they beat the Boston Celtics 4-3, then lost 4-0 to the New York Knicks.

Chicago won two of the three meetings. In Chicago, the Bulls won 113-111 on Tuesday 4 November 2025 and 109-102 on Friday 26 December 2025. Both of those games are in our number, as two of the Bulls’ 41 home games and two of the 76ers’ 41 road games. In Philadelphia, the 76ers won 157-137 on Wednesday 25 March 2026. That game is in neither half.

Pick: Bulls +253

Bet the Bulls on the moneyline at +253. The gap is 17.9 points toward Chicago, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Bulls +253 and 76ers -313 on 7 November 2026 at 21:42 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Bulls +251 and 76ers -311. Since opening, the market has moved 0.1 points toward Philadelphia, which is too small to read anything into.

What kills the bet

The bet dies if the Bulls price shortens far enough. At +150 or longer the Bulls are a bet whatever Philadelphia is priced at. With the 76ers at -313, the Bulls stay a bet down to -103.

For the 76ers to become the bet, they would need a price of +101 or longer whatever Chicago is priced at. Against the current Bulls price of +253, they would need +254 or longer. Their price is -313.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 7 November 2026 at 21:42 UTC, has Nic Claxton (hamstring) and Zach Collins (illness) out and Jalen Smith (finger) day-to-day for Chicago. For Philadelphia, Dominick Barlow (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles) are out and Adem Bona (back) is day-to-day. Our number does not use the list, so none of these changes the call. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Chicago a 54.9% chance of losing. On last season’s home and road evidence, +253 pays more than that risk is worth.

The total and the spread

The total is 238.5, over -107 and under -113. The Bulls’ home games went over 238.5 in 14 of 41, and the 76ers’ road games in 13 of 41. Chicago’s home games averaged 233.5 points, and Philadelphia’s road games 232.0. Across all games, the Bulls went over in 35 of 82 and the 76ers in 27 of 82.

The two venue rates are 34.1% and 31.7%, an average of 32.9% for the over. With the margin removed, the market prices the over at 49.4% and the under at 50.6%, so our count leans to the under by 16.4 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and not a bet.

The spread is Bulls +9.5 at -110 and 76ers -9.5 at -110, the same number it opened at. Bulls +9.5 would have covered in 26 of 41 Chicago home games. 76ers -9.5 would have covered in 15 of 41 Philadelphia road games. Our count lands Bulls +9.5 63.4% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 13.4 points, so that is also a lean on the same side. We make one bet on this game: the Bulls at +253.

*76ers at Bulls, Sunday 8 November, 3:30 PM ET, United Center, Chicago. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 November 2026, 21:42 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 7 November 2026, 21:42 UTC.*