NBA
NBA · Saturday 7 November
Spurs vs Trail Blazers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Trail Blazers. Our number is 4.2 points above the market’s on Portland, and we bet at 5.
The San Antonio Spurs are -169 and the Portland Trail Blazers +142 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 60.3% for San Antonio and 39.7% for Portland. Our number gives Portland 43.9%. The gap is real, but it is smaller than our rule allows us to bet.
How 43.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. San Antonio played one; Portland played none.
The Trail Blazers went 24-17 at the Moda Center, a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Spurs went 29-12 on the road and lost 12 of 41, a 29.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 43.9% for Portland and 56.1% for San Antonio.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -169 and +142 the two come to 104.1%. With it taken out, the market’s split is 60.3% Spurs and 39.7% Trail Blazers. Ours is 56.1% and 43.9%. The difference is 4.2 points toward Portland, against a threshold of 5.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only. Nothing from 2026-27 is in it. Portland is 6-1, 1-1 at home, and last won 132-119 at the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday 4 November. San Antonio is 6-2, 2-0 on the road, and beat the Dallas Mavericks 112-111 the same night.
Both starts sit outside the method. Seven and eight games are too few to say anything about either team, and we do not adjust for them.
Portland at home, San Antonio on the road
At home the Trail Blazers scored 118.3 points a game and allowed 114.8, a margin of 3.5. On the road the Spurs scored 119.4 and allowed 111.2, a margin of 8.2. Those are the two halves the method uses.
The halves it leaves out point the same way. Portland on the road went 18-23, scoring 112.7 and allowing 116.8. San Antonio at home went 32-8, scoring 120.5 and allowing 111.9.
The season around it
The Spurs finished 62-20, the 2 seed in the West, with a point difference of 8.3 a game. They won 43 games by 10 or more and lost 8 by that much. The Trail Blazers finished 42-40, the 7 seed, at -0.3 a game, with 23 wins and 18 losses by 10 or more.
Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, went 13-10 for San Antonio and 11-12 for Portland. The Spurs played 2 overtime games and the Trail Blazers 3. In the playoffs San Antonio beat Portland 4-1, the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 and the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3, then lost 4-1 to the New York Knicks.
The Spurs won two of the three regular-season meetings. In Portland they won 115-102 on Wednesday 26 November 2025. That game is in our number, as one of Portland’s 41 home games and one of San Antonio’s 41 road games. In San Antonio, Portland won 115-110 on Saturday 3 January 2026 and the Spurs won 112-101 on Wednesday 8 April 2026. Those two are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 4.2 points toward the Trail Blazers, against a threshold of 5. Measured, the price on Portland is short of a bet by less than a point.
The line read Spurs -169 and Trail Blazers +142 on 7 November 2026 at 03:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Spurs -166 and Trail Blazers +140. With the margin out, the open gave Portland 40.0%, so the market gives San Antonio 0.4 points more than it did at the open.
What kills the bet
Here the question is what would create one. A longer Portland price. At +157 or longer the Trail Blazers are a bet whatever San Antonio is priced at. With the Spurs at -169, Portland becomes a bet at +150 or longer.
For San Antonio to become the bet, the price would have to move a long way. The Spurs are a bet at -104 or longer whatever Portland’s price is. With Portland at +142, the Spurs need to be +132 or longer. They are -169.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 7 November 2026 at 03:32 UTC, has Vit Krejci (ankle), Ja Morant (hamstring) and Shaedon Sharpe (knee) out for Portland, and Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) out for San Antonio. The NBA has no key-player rule in our method, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 228.5, over -106 and under -114. Portland’s home games went over 228.5 in 26 of 41, a 63.4% rate, and averaged 233.1 points. San Antonio’s road games went over in 21 of 41, 51.2%, and averaged 230.6. Across all 82 games, the Trail Blazers went over this line 46 times and the Spurs 41.
The average of the two venue rates is 57.3% for the over. With the margin out the over is priced at 49.1% and the under at 50.9%, so our count leans over by 8.2 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Trail Blazers +4.5 at -110 and Spurs -4.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Portland at home beat a 4.5-point line in 29 of 41 games. San Antonio on the road beat it in 22 of 41. Averaged, Trail Blazers +4.5 lands 58.5% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 8.5 points. That is a lean on the same side our moneyline gap points to, and it is not a bet. The call on this game is no bet.
Spurs at Trail Blazers, Saturday 7 November, 10:00 PM ET, Moda Center, Portland. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 November 2026, 03:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 7 November 2026, 03:32 UTC.