NBA
NBA · Saturday 7 November
Nuggets vs Pacers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our Nuggets vs Pacers prediction is no bet. The price sits within a point of our number.
The Denver Nuggets are -237 and the Indiana Pacers +196 at DraftKings, read 7 November 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Our number gives Indiana 31.7%. The market, with the margin out, gives them 32.5%. That 0.8-point gap is the whole finding, and it is far short of the 5 points we need to bet.
The Nuggets vs Pacers odds
At -237 and +196 the two prices add up to 104.1%. The margin is that extra over 100%: the cut a book builds into both sides so the pair never comes to a fair 100. Taken out, the Nuggets are 67.5% and the Pacers 32.5%.
The line opened at Nuggets -241 and Pacers +199. At the open the market gave Indiana 32.1%. It gives them 32.5% now, so it has moved 0.3 points toward the Pacers since opening. That is a small move, and it does not change the call.
How 31.7% is reached
The method is one average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points.
The Pacers went 11-30 at home, a 26.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Nuggets went 26-15 on the road and lost 15 of 41, a 36.6% road loss rate. The midpoint is 31.7% for Indiana and 68.3% for Denver.
This game is at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, a neutral site. The Pacers are the listed home team, so the method reads their home rate. That rate was earned in their own arena, not this one. The number cannot see the difference, and we do not adjust it. Neither team played a neutral-site game in 2025-26, so no games were left out of either half.
This season so far
None of 2026-27 is in our number. Indiana is 3-6, 0-4 at home and 1-5 against the East. Their last game was a 107-103 win at the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday 4 November.
Denver is 4-3, 2-1 on the road. They beat the Toronto Raptors 128-109 on Wednesday 4 November. Nine games and seven games say little about a season. We note them as outside the method.
Indiana at home, Denver on the road
At home the Pacers scored 113.8 points a game and allowed 119.2, a margin of -5.4. The Nuggets on the road scored 123.3 and allowed 118.6, a margin of 4.7.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. Denver at home went 28-13, scoring 120.8 and allowing 115.2. Indiana on the road went 8-33, scoring 111.0 and allowing 121.6, a margin of -10.6.
The season around it
The Pacers finished 2025-26 at 19-63, 14th in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 112.4 a game and allowed 120.4, a difference of -8.0. They won by 10 or more 7 times and lost by 10 or more 38 times.
The Nuggets finished 54-28, third in the West. They scored 122.1 and allowed 116.9, a difference of 5.2, and lost a first-round series 4-2 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver won by 10 or more 28 times and lost by that much 9 times.
Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, were roughly even for both. Indiana went 10-12 in them, Denver 15-13. Denver played 9 overtime games to Indiana’s 2.
Denver won both games between the teams last season. On 8 November 2025 in Denver, the Nuggets won 117-100; that game is in neither half. On 3 December 2025 in Indiana, the Nuggets won 135-120. That one is in our number: one of the Pacers’ 41 home games and one of the Nuggets’ 41 road games.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 0.8 points toward the Nuggets, against a threshold of 5. Last season’s records say the market has this game priced about right.
The line read Nuggets -237 and Pacers +196 on 7 November 2026 at 01:42 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Nuggets -241 and Pacers +199.
What kills the bet
A longer price on either side. For the Pacers, the analysis puts the bet at +274 or longer whatever Denver is priced at. Against the current Denver price of -237 it puts the bet at +290 or longer. Indiana is +196 now.
For the Nuggets, the bet arrives at -172 or longer whatever Indiana is priced at. Against the current Indiana price of +196 it arrives at -140 or longer. Denver is -237 now, so either side needs a large move before it becomes a bet.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 7 November 2026 at 01:42 UTC, has Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Johnny Furphy (knee) and Ben Sheppard (knee) out for Indiana, with Kelly Oubre Jr. (calf) day-to-day. Denver has Julian Strawther (knee) out and DeMar DeRozan (back) day-to-day. Our number is not adjusted for the list. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 228.5, over -106 and under -114. The Pacers’ home games went over 228.5 in 24 of 41, a 58.5% rate. The Nuggets’ road games went over in 32 of 41, a 78.0% rate. Indiana’s home games averaged 233.0 points and Denver’s road games 241.9. Across all 82 games, Indiana went over this line 46 times and Denver 59 times.
The average of the two venue rates is 68.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.1% and the under at 50.9%. Our count leans to the over by 19.2 points. The method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Pacers +6.5 at -106 and Nuggets -6.5 at -114, unchanged from the open. The Pacers beat this line in 20 of 41 home games, and the Nuggets beat it in 16 of 41 road games. Averaged, Pacers +6.5 lands 54.9% of the time against 49.1% priced, a gap of 5.7 points. That is a count of one season against one line. It is a lean, and the call on this game stays no bet.
Nuggets at Pacers, Saturday 7 November, 5:00 PM ET, Arena CDMX, Mexico City (neutral site). Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 November 2026, 01:42 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 7 November 2026, 01:42 UTC.