NBA
NBA · Friday 6 November
Trail Blazers vs Lakers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Lakers on the moneyline. Our number gives Los Angeles at home 62.2%; the price gives them 55.3%.
The Los Angeles Lakers are -136 and the Portland Trail Blazers +115 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 55.3% for Los Angeles and 44.7% for Portland. Last season’s home and road records put the Lakers 6.9 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.
How 62.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neutral-site games are in neither half, and neither team played one.
The Lakers went 28-13 at home, a 68.3% win rate over 41 games. The Trail Blazers went 18-23 on the road, a 56.1% loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 62.2% for Los Angeles and 37.8% for Portland.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -136 and +115 the two come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Lakers are 55.3% and the Trail Blazers 44.7%.
This season is not in the number. The Lakers are 7-2, 4-1 at home, and last played on Wednesday 4 November, a 116-103 win at the Sacramento Kings. The Trail Blazers are 6-1 and 5-0 on the road, and won 132-119 at the Phoenix Suns the same night. Five road games set against last season’s 41 prove nothing yet. They are still the strongest argument against this bet, and the reason the price has moved.
Los Angeles at home, Portland on the road
At home the Lakers scored 118.0 points a game and allowed 114.0, a surplus of 4.0. The Trail Blazers on the road scored 112.7 and allowed 116.8, a deficit of 4.1.
The halves the method leaves out: Portland at home went 24-17, scoring 118.3 and allowing 114.8. Los Angeles on the road went 25-16, scoring 114.7 and allowing 115.2. Both teams were better in their own arena, and this game puts each in the half that favours Los Angeles.
The season around it
The Lakers finished 53-29, fourth in the West, and outscored opponents by 1.7 points a game. They were 11-4 in games decided by 5 or fewer, won 28 by 10 or more and lost 21 by 10 or more. In the playoffs they beat the Houston Rockets 4-2 and lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0.
The Trail Blazers finished 42-40, seventh in the West, and were outscored by 0.3 points a game. They went 11-12 in close games and played 3 overtime games to the Lakers’ 1. In the playoffs they lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-1.
Portland won two of the three meetings. In Los Angeles, the Trail Blazers won 122-108 on 27 October 2025; that game is in our number, one of the Lakers’ 41 home games and one of Portland’s 41 road games. In Portland, the Lakers won 123-115 on 3 November 2025 and the Trail Blazers won 132-116 on 17 January 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: Lakers -136
Bet the Lakers on the moneyline at -136. The gap is 6.9 points toward Los Angeles, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Lakers -136 and Trail Blazers +115 on 6 November 2026 at 03:40 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Lakers -162 and Trail Blazers +136. Since the open the market gives Portland 4.0 points more: 44.7% now against 40.7% then.
What kills the bet
A shorter Lakers price. At -133 or longer the Lakers are a bet whatever Portland is priced at. With the Trail Blazers at +115, Los Angeles stays a bet as short as -165; past that, pass.
For Portland to become the bet, the Trail Blazers would need to reach +255 with the Lakers at -136, or +205 whatever the Lakers are priced at. They are +115.
ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026 at 03:40 UTC, lists Vit Krejci (ankle), Ja Morant (hamstring) and Shaedon Sharpe (knee) out for Portland, and Sandro Mamukelashvili (illness) day-to-day for Los Angeles. Our number is built from team records only, so the list does not change it. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 233.5, over -114 and under -106. The Lakers’ home games went over 233.5 in 21 of 41, the Trail Blazers’ road games in 16 of 41. Los Angeles home games averaged 232.0 points, Portland road games 229.5.
That is 51.2% and 39.0%, an average of 45.1% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.9% and the under at 49.1%, so our count leans to the under by 5.7 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Lakers -2.5 at -106 and Trail Blazers +2.5 at -114; it opened Lakers -4.5. The Lakers beat this line in 26 of 41 home games, and Portland beat it in 18 of 41 road games. Averaged, Lakers -2.5 lands 59.8% of the time against 49.1% priced, a gap of 10.6 points. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Lakers at -136.
Trail Blazers at Lakers, Friday 6 November, 10:00 PM ET, crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 November 2026, 03:40 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 6 November 2026, 03:40 UTC.