NBA
NBA · Monday 9 November
Cavaliers vs Hornets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Hornets at +270. Our number gives Charlotte at home 45.1%; the price gives them 26.0%.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are -337 and the Charlotte Hornets +270 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 74.0% for Cleveland and 26.0% for Charlotte. Last season’s home and road records put the Hornets 19.1 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.
How 45.1% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half; neither team played one.
The Hornets went 21-20 at Spectrum Center, a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Cavaliers went 25-16 on the road, a 39.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 45.1% for Charlotte and 54.9% for Cleveland.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -337 and +270 the pair comes to 104.1%. Taken out, the Cavaliers are 74.0% and the Hornets 26.0%.
This season so far
Our number reads 2025-26 only, so this season’s games are outside it. The Hornets are 3-7 and 2-4 at home, and lost 119-80 to the Boston Celtics on Friday 6 November. The Cavaliers are 5-5 and 1-3 on the road, and lost 109-97 to the New York Knicks on Saturday 7 November.
A 2-4 home start is too small a sample to replace 41 home games, and the method does not try. It does point the wrong way for this bet.
Charlotte at home, Cleveland on the road
At home the Hornets scored 115.0 points a game and allowed 111.1, a margin of 3.9. The Cavaliers on the road scored 119.9 and allowed 116.2, a margin of 3.7. On those two halves the teams are close.
The halves the method leaves out: the Cavaliers went 27-14 at home, scoring 119.2 and allowing 114.6. The Hornets went 23-18 on the road, scoring 117.0 and allowing 111.2. Charlotte won more often away (56.1%) than at home (51.2%), and the method uses only the lower rate.
The season around it
Over the full 2025-26 season the Cavaliers went 52-30, the 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, scoring 119.5 a game and allowing 115.4, a difference of 4.1. The Hornets went 44-38, the 9 seed, and outscored opponents 116.0 to 111.2, a difference of 4.8. Charlotte’s per-game difference was the larger of the two, on the worse record.
Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, account for part of that in our view. Charlotte went 5-11 in them; Cleveland went 13-7. Each team played 3 overtime games. The Hornets won by 10 or more 32 times and lost by 10 or more 19 times; for the Cavaliers the counts were 27 and 17.
Charlotte missed the playoffs. Cleveland beat the Toronto Raptors 4-3 and the Detroit Pistons 4-3, then lost 4-0 to the New York Knicks.
The Cavaliers won three of the four meetings. In Charlotte, the Cavaliers won 94-87 on 21 January 2026 and 118-113 on 20 February 2026; those games are in our number: two of the Hornets’ 41 home games and two of the Cavaliers’ 41 road games. In Cleveland, the Hornets won 119-111 in overtime on 14 December 2025 and the Cavaliers won 139-132 on 22 December 2025; those are in neither half.
Pick: Hornets +270
Bet the Hornets on the moneyline at +270. The gap is 19.1 points toward Charlotte, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Hornets +270 and Cavaliers -337 on 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Hornets +250 and Cavaliers -309. With the margin out, the open gave Cleveland 72.6% and Charlotte 27.4%, so the market has moved 1.5 points toward the Cavaliers since.
What kills the bet
A shorter Charlotte price. At +150 or longer the Hornets are a bet whatever Cleveland is priced at; with the Cavaliers at -337, they stay a bet down to -107. For Cleveland to become the bet, the Cavaliers would have to be priced at +101 or longer. They are -337.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, has Brandon Miller (groin), Kon Knueppel (hamstring), Dennis Schroder (hamstring) and Grant Williams (hamstring) out for Charlotte, and Moussa Diabate (quadriceps) day-to-day. For Cleveland it has Sam Merrill (elbow) and Jaylon Tyson (ankle) out, and Jarrett Allen (knee) day-to-day. Our method has no player rule for the NBA, so the list does not change the number. It is the largest risk in this bet: the 21-20 home team in our average may not be the team on the floor. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Cleveland a 54.9% chance of winning. The case is that +270 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 214.5, over -112 and under -108. The Hornets’ home games went over 214.5 in 31 of 41, a 75.6% rate, and averaged 226.1 points. The Cavaliers’ road games went over in 36 of 41, an 87.8% rate, and averaged 236.1. Across the full season the counts were 61 of 82 for Charlotte and 70 of 82 for Cleveland.
Averaged, the over lands 81.7% of the time against 50.4% priced, with the under at 49.6%. That is a lean to the over of 31.3 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Hornets +8.5 at -108 and Cavaliers -8.5 at -112; it opened at 9.5. The Hornets’ home games landed on Charlotte’s side of the line in 31 of 41. The Cavaliers’ road games cleared -8.5 in 12 of 41. Averaged, Hornets +8.5 covers 73.2% of the time against 49.6% priced, a gap of 23.6 points. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Hornets at +270.
Cavaliers at Hornets, Monday 9 November, 7:00 PM ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.