NBA
NBA · Tuesday 10 November
Bucks vs Knicks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Bucks at +710. Our number gives Milwaukee 28.4% at Madison Square Garden; the price gives them 11.9%.
The Milwaukee Bucks are +710 and the New York Knicks -1120 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 11.9% for Milwaukee and 88.1% for New York. Last season’s home and road records put Milwaukee 16.5 points higher than the price does. We bet at 5.
How 28.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. New York played one, Milwaukee none.
The Knicks went 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, a 75.0% home win rate over 40 games. The Bucks went 13-28 on the road, a 68.3% road loss rate over 41. The midpoint is 71.6% for New York and 28.4% for Milwaukee.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +710 and -1120 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Bucks are 11.9% and the Knicks 88.1%.
This season is not in our number. The Knicks are 5-4, 3-2 at home, and won 109-97 in Cleveland on Saturday 7 November. The Bucks are 1-9, 0-4 on the road, and lost 117-97 to the Boston Celtics on Sunday 8 November. Ten games is too few to measure a team, and our number reads 2025-26 only. It also does not see roster changes over the summer. That is the main risk in this bet.
New York at home, Milwaukee on the road
At home the Knicks scored 119.0 points a game and allowed 109.0, a margin of 10.0. The Bucks on the road scored 107.1 and allowed 115.5, a margin of -8.4.
The halves the method leaves out: Milwaukee at home went 19-22, scoring 114.2 and allowing 118.2. New York on the road went 22-19, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0.
The season around it
The Knicks finished 53-29, third in the East, scoring 116.5 a game and allowing 110.1, a difference of 6.4. They won 32 games by 10 or more and lost 19 that way. In the playoffs they won series against the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1.
The Bucks finished 32-50, eleventh in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 110.6 and allowed 116.8, a difference of -6.2 a game. They won 19 games by 10 or more and lost 33. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Milwaukee went 9-8 and New York 11-5.
The Knicks won two of the three meetings. In New York, the Knicks won 118-109 on 28 November 2025; that game is in our number, one of the Knicks’ 40 home games and one of the Bucks’ 41 road games. In Milwaukee, the Bucks won 121-111 on 28 October 2025 and the Knicks won 127-98 on 27 February 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: Bucks +710
Bet the Bucks on the moneyline at +710. The gap is 16.5 points toward Milwaukee, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Bucks +710 and Knicks -1120 on 9 November 2026 at 23:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Bucks +770 and Knicks -1260. Since the open it has moved toward Milwaukee: the market gives the Bucks 11.9% now against 11.0% then.
What kills the bet
A shorter Milwaukee price. At +327 or longer the Bucks are a bet whatever New York is priced at. With the Knicks at -1120, they stay a bet down to +256.
For the Knicks to become the bet, they would need to be priced at -199 or longer whatever the Bucks price. Against the current Bucks price, it takes +306 or longer. They are -1120.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 9 November 2026 at 23:31 UTC, has Tyler Herro (knee) and Gary Trent Jr. (illness) day-to-day for Milwaukee, and Josh Hart (ankle) day-to-day for New York. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives New York a 71.6% chance of winning. The case is that +710 pays more than Milwaukee’s 28.4% warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 219.5, over -114 and under -106. The Knicks’ home games went over 219.5 in 24 of 40 and averaged 228.0 points. The Bucks’ road games went over in 24 of 41 and averaged 222.6. Across all games, New York went over in 47 of 82 and Milwaukee in 54 of 82.
That is 60.0% and 58.5%, an average of 59.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.9% and the under at 49.1%, so our count leans to the over by 8.4 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Knicks -15.5 at -110 and Bucks +15.5 at -110, unchanged since it opened. New York beat that line in 13 of 40 home games; Milwaukee beat it in 27 of 41 road games. Averaged, Knicks -15.5 lands 33.3% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 16.7 points toward Bucks +15.5. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Bucks at +710.
Bucks at Knicks, Tuesday 10 November, 7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden, New York. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 23:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 23:31 UTC.