Celtics vs 76ers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Celtics or the 76ers. Our number has Boston 3.7 points better than an even price, and we bet at 5.

The Boston Celtics are -109 and the Philadelphia 76ers -109 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 50.0% for each side. Last season’s home and road records put Boston at 53.7%. The gap is 3.7 points, under our threshold of 5, so there is no bet.

How 53.7% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a game at a neutral site, so none were left out.

The 76ers went 23-18 at home, a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Celtics went 26-15 on the road and lost 15 of 41, a 36.6% road loss rate. The midpoint is 46.3% for Philadelphia and 53.7% for Boston.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -109 and -109 the pair comes to 104.3%. Taken out, each side is 50.0%.

This season is not in our number. Philadelphia is 9-2, 4-1 at home, and last won 127-121 at the Chicago Bulls on Sunday 8 November. Boston is 8-2, 3-2 on the road, and last won 117-97 at the Milwaukee Bucks the same day. Both records sit outside the method, and so do any roster changes since last season.

Philadelphia at home, Boston on the road

At home the 76ers scored 115.4 points a game and allowed 116.5, a deficit of 1.1. That is a team that won more than it lost at home while being outscored there. The Celtics on the road scored 114.9 and allowed 107.3, a surplus of 7.6.

The halves the method leaves out: Philadelphia on the road went 22-19, scoring 116.4 and allowing 115.6, a surplus of 0.8. Boston at home went 30-11, scoring 114.8 and allowing 107.0, a surplus of 7.8.

The season around it

Over the full 2025-26 season the Celtics finished 56-26, the second seed in the East, and outscored opponents by 7.7 points a game. They won 38 games by 10 or more and lost 10 by that much. The 76ers finished 45-37, the seventh seed, and were outscored by 0.2 a game, with 26 wins and 20 losses by 10 or more.

Both teams went 10-10 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. Philadelphia played 7 overtime games; Boston played 1.

The playoffs ran against the point differentials. Philadelphia, the seventh seed, beat Boston 4-3, then lost 4-0 to the New York Knicks. Our method reads the regular season only, so that series is not in the number.

The regular-season meetings split two each, and three of the four were decided by 2 points or fewer. In Philadelphia, Boston won 109-108 on 31 October 2025 and Philadelphia won 102-100 on 11 November 2025; those two games are in our number, inside the 76ers’ 41 home games and the Celtics’ 41 road games. In Boston, Philadelphia won 117-116 on 22 October 2025 and Boston won 114-98 on 1 March 2026; those are in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. Our number leans to the Celtics by 3.7 points, against a threshold of 5. A lean that size is inside what one season of home and road splits can measure, and the price at 50.0% each is close enough to our figure to stand.

The line read Celtics -109 and 76ers -109 on 9 November 2026 at 17:36 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.

What kills the bet

Here it is the other way round: a longer price would make one. At +106 or longer the Celtics are a bet whatever Philadelphia is priced at; with the 76ers at -109, Boston is a bet at +102 or longer.

For the 76ers to become the bet, they would need to be +142 or longer whatever Boston is priced at, or +172 or longer with Boston at -109. At -109 they are a long way from either.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 9 November 2026 at 17:36 UTC, has Dominick Barlow (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles) out and Adem Bona (back) day-to-day for Philadelphia. Boston has no one listed. The method does not use the list, so it does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 215.5, over -106 and under -114. The 76ers’ home games went over 215.5 in 35 of 41, an 85.4% rate, and averaged 231.9 points. The Celtics’ road games went over in 24 of 41, a 58.5% rate, and averaged 222.2. Across all 82 games, Philadelphia’s went over 69 times and Boston’s 51.

Averaged, the over lands 72.0% of the time. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.1% and the under at 50.9%, so our count leans to the over by 22.8 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Celtics -1.5 at -101 and 76ers +1.5 at -120, unchanged from the open. Philadelphia beat that line in 25 of 41 home games, and Boston beat it in 25 of 41 road games. Averaged, 76ers +1.5 lands 50.0% of the time against 52.1% priced, a gap of 2.1 points toward Celtics -1.5. That is a lean too, and a smaller one than the moneyline gap we already pass on. No bet on this game.

Celtics at 76ers, Tuesday 10 November, 8:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:36 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:36 UTC.