Pelicans vs Warriors Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Pelicans at +303. Our number gives New Orleans on the road 34.1%; the price gives them 23.8%.

The New Orleans Pelicans are +303 and the Golden State Warriors -382 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 23.8% for New Orleans and 76.2% for Golden State. Last season’s home and road records put the Pelicans 10.3 points higher than that. We bet at 5.

How 65.9% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team played one.

The Warriors went 22-19 at Chase Center, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Pelicans went 9-32 on the road and lost 32 of 41, a 78.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 65.9% for Golden State and 34.1% for New Orleans.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -382 and +303 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Warriors are 76.2% and the Pelicans 23.8%.

This season is not in our number. Golden State is 7-3, 5-1 at home and 5-3 against the West, and last played on Saturday 7 November, a 126-119 overtime win over the Orlando Magic. New Orleans is 4-6, 1-3 on the road and 3-5 against the West, and lost 139-123 at the LA Clippers on Sunday 8 November. Our number reads 2025-26 only, and rosters change over a summer. A 5-1 home start sits well above last season’s 53.7%. Six games prove nothing either way, but this is the main risk in the bet.

Golden State at home, New Orleans on the road

At home the Warriors scored 117.1 points a game and allowed 115.8, a surplus of 1.3. That is a thin home edge. The Pelicans on the road scored 112.9 and allowed 120.5, a deficit of 7.6.

The halves the method leaves out: Golden State on the road went 15-26, scoring 112.1 and allowing 114.5. New Orleans at home went 17-24, scoring 118.2 and allowing 119.5.

Over the full 2025-26 season, the Warriors finished 37-45, 10th in the West, scoring 114.6 a game and allowing 115.2, a difference of -0.6. The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th, scoring 115.5 and allowing 120.0, a difference of -4.5. Both missed the playoffs.

Games decided by 5 points or fewer went 10-13 for Golden State and 6-13 for New Orleans. Each team played 5 overtime games. The Warriors won by 10 or more 20 times and lost by 10 or more 23 times; the Pelicans did so 15 and 25 times.

The Warriors won two of the three meetings. In San Francisco, the Warriors won 104-96 on 29 November 2025; that game is in our number, one of Golden State’s 41 home games and one of New Orleans’s 41 road games. In New Orleans, the Warriors won 124-106 on 16 November 2025 and the Pelicans won 113-109 on 24 February 2026; those are in neither half.

Pick: Pelicans +303

Bet the Pelicans on the moneyline at +303. The gap is 10.3 points toward New Orleans, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Pelicans +303 and Warriors -382 on 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Pelicans +300 and Warriors -378. Since then the market gives Golden State 0.2 points more, 76.2% against 76.0% at the open.

What kills the bet

A shorter New Orleans price. At +244 or longer the Pelicans are a bet whatever Golden State is priced at. With the Warriors at -382, they stay a bet down to +207.

For the Warriors to become the bet, their price would have to drift to -156 or longer whatever New Orleans is priced at. Against the current +303 on the Pelicans, Golden State would have to be +159 or longer.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 9 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC, has Jimmy Butler III (knee), Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Moses Moody (knee) and Will Richard (thumb) out and Gui Santos (knee) day-to-day for Golden State. It has Yves Missi (knee) out for New Orleans. The list does not change our number. Check the lineups again before tip-off.

Our number still gives New Orleans a 65.9% chance of losing. The case is that +303 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 232.5, over -112 and under -108. The Warriors’ home games went over in 24 of 41, 58.5%. The Pelicans’ road games went over in 23 of 41, 56.1%. Golden State’s home games averaged 232.9 points, New Orleans’s road games 233.4.

The average is 57.3% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%, so our count leans to the over by 6.9 points. Across all games the Warriors went over in 40 of 82 and the Pelicans in 47 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Warriors -8.5 at -118 and Pelicans +8.5 at -102; it opened Warriors -9.5. Golden State beat a line of 8.5 in 14 of 41 home games. New Orleans beat it in 22 of 41 road games. Averaged, Warriors -8.5 lands 40.2% of the time against 51.7% priced, a gap of 11.5 points toward Pelicans +8.5. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Pelicans at +303.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, Monday 9 November, 10:00 PM ET, Chase Center, San Francisco. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 9 November 2026, 17:30 UTC.