Raptors vs 76ers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Raptors at +322. Our number gives Toronto on the road 48.8%; the price gives them 22.8%.

The Toronto Raptors are +322 and the Philadelphia 76ers -410 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 22.8% for Toronto and 77.2% for Philadelphia. Our Raptors vs 76ers prediction, built on last season’s home and road records, puts Toronto 26.0 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.

How 48.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates. The first is the home team’s win rate in its own arena. The second is the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so no game is left out of either half.

The 76ers went 23-18 at home, a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Raptors went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 51.2% for Philadelphia and 48.8% for Toronto.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -410 and +322 the pair comes to 104.1%. Taken out, the 76ers are 77.2% and the Raptors 22.8%. Our number is close to a coin flip. The market treats this as a mismatch.

This season so far

None of 2026-27 is in our number. The 76ers are 9-3, 4-2 at home and 9-3 against the East. The Raptors are 5-6, 3-3 on the road and 4-2 against the East. Twelve games and eleven games are too few to replace an 82-game season. They are also the strongest evidence against this bet, and we state them plainly.

Both teams lost their last game to the Boston Celtics. Philadelphia lost 123-101 on Tuesday 10 November. Toronto lost 98-93 on Wednesday 11 November, so this is their second game on consecutive nights.

Philadelphia at home, Toronto on the road

At home the 76ers scored 115.4 points a game and allowed 116.5, a deficit of 1.1. The Raptors on the road scored 114.0 and allowed 112.8, a surplus of 1.2. By margin, the visiting half was the better of the two halves the method uses.

The method leaves out two halves. Toronto at home went 24-17, scoring 115.3 and allowing 110.8, a surplus of 4.5. Philadelphia on the road went 22-19, scoring 116.4 and allowing 115.6, a surplus of 0.8.

The 2025-26 season

The Raptors finished 46-36, the fifth seed in the East. They scored 114.6 a game and allowed 111.8, a difference of 2.8. The 76ers finished 45-37, the seventh seed, and scored 115.9 against 116.1 allowed, a difference of -0.2 a game. By point difference, Toronto was the stronger team.

In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Philadelphia went 10-10 and Toronto 7-5. Philadelphia played 7 overtime games and Toronto 4. The 76ers won 26 games by 10 or more and lost 20 that way. The Raptors won 33 by 10 or more and lost 23. In the playoffs Philadelphia beat the Celtics 4-3 and then lost to the New York Knicks 4-0. Toronto lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-3.

The teams split four meetings, 2-2. In Philadelphia, the 76ers won 130-120 on 8 November 2025 and the Raptors won 121-112 on 19 November 2025. Both games are in our number: two of the 76ers’ 41 home games and two of the Raptors’ 41 road games. In Toronto, the Raptors won 116-115 in overtime on 11 January 2026 and the 76ers won 115-102 on 12 January 2026. Those two are in neither half.

Pick: Raptors +322

Bet the Raptors on the moneyline at +322. The gap is 26.0 points toward Toronto, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Raptors +322 and 76ers -410 on 12 November 2026 at 04:31 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Raptors +341 and 76ers -410. Since the open the market has moved toward Toronto: it gives the Raptors 22.8% now against 22.0% at the open, 0.8 points more.

What kills the bet

The bet ends only if the price on Toronto gets a great deal shorter. At +129 or longer the Raptors are a bet whatever Philadelphia is priced at. With the 76ers at -410, Toronto stays a bet down to -168. The 76ers become the bet only at +117 or longer, whatever Toronto’s price.

ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026 at 04:31 UTC, lists Kawhi Leonard (knee), Scottie Barnes (groin) and Nate Bittle (foot) out for Toronto, and Trayce Jackson-Davis (illness) day-to-day. For Philadelphia it lists Adem Bona (back), Dominick Barlow (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles) out, and Joel Embiid (foot) and LeBron James (back) day-to-day. Our number reads none of this list, so it does not change the call. Leonard and Barnes both out is the largest risk to this bet. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Toronto a 51.2% chance of losing. The case is that +322 pays far more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 221.5, over -108 and under -112. The 76ers’ home games went over 221.5 in 26 of 41, a 63.4% rate, and averaged 231.9 points. The Raptors’ road games went over in 22 of 41, a 53.7% rate, and averaged 226.8. Over the full season the 76ers’ games went over in 53 of 82 and the Raptors’ in 45 of 82.

The two venue rates average 58.5% for the over. With the margin out, the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%. Our count leans to the over by 9.0 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is 76ers -9.5 at -118 and Raptors +9.5 at -103, unchanged from the open. Philadelphia’s home results beat -9.5 in 11 of 41 games. Toronto’s road results beat +9.5 in 26 of 41. Averaged, 76ers -9.5 lands 31.7% of the time against 51.6% priced, a gap of 19.9 points toward Raptors +9.5. That is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Raptors at +322.

Raptors at 76ers, Thursday 12 November, 7:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 04:31 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026, 04:31 UTC.