NBA
NBA · Friday 13 November
Knicks vs Pacers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on this game. Our number gives the Knicks 69.0% at Indiana; the price already gives them 67.9%.
The New York Knicks are -241 and the Indiana Pacers +199 at DraftKings. At those prices the pair adds up to 104.1%. With the margin out, the market has New York at 67.9% and Indiana at 32.1%. Ours is 69.0% and 31.0%, a gap of 1.1 points toward the Knicks. We bet at 5.
How 31.0% is reached
Our home win chance comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team’s rating up after a win and down after a loss. A wide margin moves it more, and so does a result against a strong opponent. The rating moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games, and the home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.
The average rating is 1500. The Pacers sit at 1356.0, 24th of 30. The Knicks sit at 1595.3, 9th of 30. Both ratings include 11 games from this season, and they were built on 12 November 2026 at 23:33 UTC. With Indiana’s home edge added, the rating gives the Pacers 31.0% and the Knicks 69.0%.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. Here it is 104.1%. Removing it gives the 67.9% and 32.1% above.
A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. A second rule applies to the underdog. We never bet a side the market gives less than 40%, because on underdogs our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. Indiana at 32.1% falls under that rule however wide the gap gets.
This season so far
The Pacers are 4-8, and 1-4 at home. They beat the Washington Wizards 114-101 on Wednesday 11 November. The Knicks are 6-5, and 2-2 on the road. They lost 115-107 to the Cleveland Cavaliers the same night.
Those games are in the rating, which is the point of using one. The injury list is not in it.
Indiana at home, New York on the road
Last season the Pacers went 11-30 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. They scored 113.8 a game and allowed 119.2, a margin of -5.4. The Knicks went 22-19 on the road, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0, a margin of 2.6. These splits leave out neutral-site games; New York played one, Indiana none.
The other halves widen the picture. New York went 30-10 at home with a margin of 10.0. Indiana went 8-33 on the road with a margin of -10.6. Last season’s home and road records, averaged, would give the Pacers 36.6%. That figure is context only. The rating replaced it as the number the call uses.
The season around it
The Knicks finished 2025-26 at 53-29, third in the East, outscoring opponents by 6.4 points a game. They won by 10 or more 32 times and lost by 10 or more 19 times. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 11-5. Their playoff series went 4-2 against the Atlanta Hawks, 4-0 against the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0 against the Cleveland Cavaliers and 4-1 against the San Antonio Spurs.
The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the East, and missed the playoffs. They were outscored by 8.0 points a game. They lost by 10 or more 38 times and won by that much 7 times. In close games they went 10-12.
The Knicks won three of the four meetings. In Indianapolis, New York won 114-113 on 18 December 2025 and 101-92 on 13 March 2026. In New York, Indiana won 137-134 in overtime on 10 February and the Knicks won 136-110 on 17 March. All four games are in the rating.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.1 points toward the Knicks, against a threshold of 5. The Pacers side is closed by the 40% rule.
The line read Knicks -241 and Pacers +199 on 12 November 2026 at 23:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Knicks -130 and Pacers +110. At the open the market had Indiana at 45.7%. It now has the Knicks 13.6 points higher than at the open. The market has already moved to where our rating sits, and at -241 we see nothing left to take.
What kills the bet
A longer Knicks price. At -178 or longer, New York is a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at +199, the Knicks need -147 or longer.
The Pacers do not become a bet at any price while the market gives them under 40% with the margin out. That is about +150 or longer.
ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026 at 23:33 UTC, lists Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), Johnny Furphy (knee) and Ben Sheppard (knee) out for Indiana. T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Aaron Nesmith (knee) are day-to-day. The Knicks have no one listed. The analysis does not re-run the number for any absence here, so the list does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 221.5, over -110 and under -110. Last season the Pacers’ home games went over 221.5 in 31 of 41, and the Knicks’ road games in 21 of 41. Indiana’s home games averaged 233.0 points, New York’s road games 224.6. Across all games the Pacers went over in 61 of 82 and the Knicks in 45 of 82.
Our count puts the over at 63.4% against 50.0% priced, a gap of 13.4 points. That is a lean to the over. The method stakes the moneyline only, so it is not a bet.
The spread is Knicks -6.5 at -112 and Pacers +6.5 at -108. It opened Pacers +2.5. Last season Indiana beat this line in 20 of 41 home games, and New York in 14 of 41 road games. Our count has Pacers +6.5 covering 57.3% against 49.6% priced, a gap of 7.8 points. That is a lean drawn from last season’s counts against this line. It is not a bet. The call on this game is no bet.
Knicks at Pacers, Friday 13 November, 7:00 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 12 November 2026, 23:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Ratings built 12 November 2026, 23:33 UTC. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 12 November 2026, 23:33 UTC.